## IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Chile _IMF News, July 6, 2026_ ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Chile](https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/07/06/pr26238-chile-imf-executive-board-concludes-2026-article-iv-consultation) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2026/07/06/pr26238-chile-imf-executive-board-concludes-2026-article-iv-consultation/index.md) - [Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2026/07/06/pr26238-chile-imf-executive-board-concludes-2026-article-iv-consultation/index.json) - [Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2026/07/06/pr26238-chile-imf-executive-board-concludes-2026-article-iv-consultation/bundle-manifest.json) ## Bibliographic details - Published: July 6, 2026 --- ### Economic outlook and recent developments - Economic activity remained robust, with GDP growing at 2.5 percent in 2025 driven by strong non‑mining domestic demand. - Inflation declined to the central bank’s target in early 2026 but has since increased due to higher energy prices associated with the conflict in the Middle East. - Fiscal deficits have persisted due to revenue underperformance, but public debt remains moderate. - The financial system is sound overall, although vulnerabilities persist in construction and real estate. - GDP growth projections: - 2026: 1.8 percent - 2027: 2.6 percent (supported by higher copper prices) - Inflation projections: - Expected to remain temporarily above target in 2026 and early 2027 before converging back to target. ### Risks and policy priorities - Near‑term risks are tilted to the downside and remain elevated. - A more prolonged period of high oil prices could weigh on growth and inflation; the central bank should stand ready to tighten monetary policy if oil prices remain higher for longer. - Rebuilding fiscal and external buffers, including continuing with the reserve accumulation plan, is recommended to maintain resilience. - Medium-term priorities aligned with government objectives: - Sustainably and credibly rebuild fiscal buffers. - Durably lift Chile’s growth through structural reforms. ### Fiscal policy assessment and recommendations - Authorities plan to reduce the structural fiscal deficit to 1.5 percent of GDP by 2030 and to keep debt below 45 percent of GDP. - Directors noted additional measures would be needed to achieve these objectives amid rising spending pressures. - Recommended fiscal measures and considerations: - Rationalize expenditures and enhance spending efficiency. - Carefully prioritize and sequence reforms under the National Reconstruction Plan. - Carefully consider fiscal costs and growth impact of tax and other reforms to ensure fiscal sustainability. - Better targeting of the minimum guaranteed pension and consolidation of fragmented social programs to strengthen spending efficiency while protecting the most vulnerable. - Further refinements to the existing fiscal framework. ### Monetary and external sector policy - Directors highlighted the central bank’s robust inflation targeting framework and encouraged readiness to tighten monetary policy should second round inflation effects materialize. - Directors welcomed the central bank’s international reserve accumulation program that will strengthen resilience against external shocks, reinforcing support from the FCL. - External position is expected to remain broadly in line with medium‑term fundamentals. ### Financial sector and structural reforms - Directors agreed that the financial sector remains resilient and well supervised. - Encouraged actions: - Continue advancing outstanding 2021 FSAP recommendations. - Maintain progress in strengthening the AML/CFT framework. - Monitor sectoral vulnerabilities in the real estate and construction sectors. - Implement the recent pension reform in a well coordinated and gradual manner to avoid abrupt asset reallocations. - Growth-enhancing reforms supported: - Deregulation to foster higher medium term growth. - Complementary reforms to narrow labor market skill and gender gaps. - Measures to improve the minimum wage setting process. - Reforms to facilitate trade and support innovation and diversification to boost productivity and investment. ### Executive Board assessment - Directors commended Chile’s very strong policies and institutional frameworks that supported resilience amid heightened global uncertainty. - Directors welcomed the authorities’ commitment to improve structural fiscal balances, strengthen fiscal and external buffers, and advance structural reforms to preserve macroeconomic stability and enhance sustainable and inclusive growth. ### Key statistics and selected indicators (as reported) - GDP (2025), in trillions of pesos: 340 - GDP (2025), in billions of U.S. dollars: 358 - Quota (in millions of SDRs): 1,744 - Per capita (2025), U.S. dollars: 17,847 - in % of total: 0.37 - Population (2025), in millions 1/: 20.0 - Poverty rate (2024) 1/: 17.3 - Main products and exports: Copper, fruits, fish - Gini coefficient (2024) 1/: 0.46 - Key export markets: China, U.S., Euro Area - Life expectancy (2026): 81.8 - Output (annual percentage change) - Real GDP: 2024: 2.8; 2025: 2.5; 2026: 1.8; 2027: 2.6 - Consumption: 2024: 1.4; 2025: 2.0; 2026: 2.1 - Fixed capital formation: 2024: -1.6; 2025: 7.0; 2026: 1.9; 2027: 3.9 - Exports of goods and services: 2024: 7.2; 2025: 4.6; 2026: 0.6; 2027: 3.5 - Imports of goods and services: 2024: 10.5; 2025: 3.8 - Output gap (in percent): 2024: -0.1; 2025: 0.2; 2026: -0.4 - Employment (in percent of labor force, annual average) - Unemployment rate: 2024: 8.5; 2025: 8.8; 2026: 8.4 - Prices - GDP deflator: 2024: 7.1; 2025: 6.8; 2026: 4.1; 2027: 1.5 - Change of CPI (end of period): 2024: 4.5; 2025: 3.4; 2026: 4.2; 2027: 3.0 - Change of CPI (period average): 2024: 3.7 - Public Sector Finances (In percent of GDP) - Central government revenue: 2024: 21.7; 2025: 21.4; 2026: 21.9 - Central government expenditure: 2024: 24.5; 2025: 24.2; 2026: 23.9 - Central government fiscal balance: 2024: -2.9; 2025: -2.8; 2026: -2.5; 2027: -2.0 - Central government structural fiscal balance 2/: 2024: -3.3; 2025: -3.1; 2026: -2.4 - Central government gross debt: 2024: 41.8; 2025: 41.5; 2026: 43.2; 2027: 45.0 - Public sector gross debt 3/: 2024: 61.9; 2025: 60.6; 2026: 62.3; 2027: 64.1 - Balance of Payments (In percent of GDP) - Current account balance: 2024: -1.2; 2025: -1.4; 2026: -2.1 - Foreign direct investment flows: 2024: -2.2; 2025: -1.9 - Gross external debt: 2024: 74.4; 2025: 77.6; 2026: 72.3; 2027: 71.1 *Source: IMF Executive Board communiqué and staff projections from the Article IV Consultation with Chile (July 6, 2026).* --- ## References - [Chile and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/CHL/index.htm) - [IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance) - [Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews) - [PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/) - [country](https://www.imf.org/en/countries/chl) - [http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm](http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm) - [https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home) _Source: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/07/06/pr26238-chile-imf-executive-board-concludes-2026-article-iv-consultation_