## Opening Remarks at the July 2026 WEO Update Press Conference

_IMF News, July 8, 2026_

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## Bibliographic details
- Published: July 8, 2026

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### Global growth outlook
- "We are projecting global growth of 3.0 percent in 2026 and 3.4 percent in 2027 — broadly unchanged from April on a cumulative basis."
- Later restated: "We are projecting global growth of 3 percent in 2026 and 3.4 percent in 2027, broadly unchanged from April on a cumulative basis."
- Characterization: "In effect, we expect a V-shaped recovery: weaker growth this year relative to our pre-war forecast, followed by a rebound next year."
- Net effect varies across countries depending on exposure to the war in the Middle East and position in the technology value chain.

### Inflation and disinflation trend
- "Global headline inflation has been revised up to 4.7 percent this year, while our core inflation forecast is broadly unchanged."
- Assessment: "Put simply, the disinflation trend that has been in place since early 2024 has stalled."

### Drivers, assumptions, and recent developments
- Two powerful forces shaping the outlook: "the lingering effects of the energy shock from the war in the Middle East and a technology-driven investment boom."
- Resilience factors cited:
  - Inventory drawdowns and expanded production outside the Gulf helped avoid a larger spike in oil prices.
  - "A steady rise in the renewable energy share, combined with lower energy intensity than just a few years ago, has also made many economies more resilient."
  - Financial conditions "tightened sharply in April, they have since eased and remained supportive by historical standards."
- Forecast assumptions:
  - "The Strait of Hormuz begins reopening in mid-July, with conditions normalizing to the pre-war state by March of 2027."
  - "Commodity price assumptions are based on market pricing as of June 10th, which implied an average oil price of $89 a barrel for 2026."
  - Assumes "policy and geopolitical uncertainty remain elevated throughout 2027 and that the AI-driven technology cycle moderates from here with no exogenous boost to productivity."
  - Note on futures: "the futures curve since shifted down a bit."

### Risks and scenarios
- Downside risks (tilted to the downside):
  - "A renewed escalation in the conflict could reignite commodity price volatility, tighten financial conditions, strain policy buffers, and worsen food insecurity in low-income countries."
  - "A market correction driven by a reassessment of AI profitability is another key downside risk."
- Upside scenarios:
  - "Faster AI adoption could lift growth."
  - "A swifter than expected normalization of trade through the Strait of Hormuz would also be a positive surprise."

### Policy recommendations
- Monetary policy: "Central Banks should remain focused on price stability, though the appropriate response will vary by country depending on how commodity prices, the tech-driven demand, and inflation expectations interact."
- Fiscal policy:
  - Many governments "have deployed fiscal tools in response to the war, so far at limited cost."
  - Recommendation: "As the shock fades, energy-related fiscal support should be unwound, and rebuilding fiscal space remains essential given elevated debt."
- Structural policy: "Over the medium term, advancing structural reforms, including the energy transition, and addressing domestic imbalances will be critical to strengthen resilience and sustain balanced growth."

*Opening Remarks at the July 2026 WEO Update Press Conference — Petya Koeva Brooks, July 8, 2026*

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## References

- [PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)
- [Speeches](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)
- [World Economic Outlook Update, July 2026: Global Economy in Crosscurrents of War and Technology](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/07/08/world-economic-outlook-update-july-2026)
- [https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/07/08/sp070826-weo-update-july-2026-press-conference-opening-remarks_