## Press Briefing Transcript: Julie Kozack, Director, Communications Department, July 9, 2026

_IMF News, July 9, 2026_

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## Bibliographic details
- Published: July 9, 2026

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### Announcements and logistics
- Press briefing embargoed until 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time in the United States.
- IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva will visit Argentina and Uruguay later this month.
- First Deputy Managing Director Dan Katz concluded his trip to Brazil and will travel to South Africa from August 4th through 6th.
- July WEO Economic Outlook Update released; update, related blog and press conference transcripts available on IMF.org.
- Registration for the 2026 IMF and World Bank Group Annual Meetings (Bangkok, Thailand) is open for the meetings from October 12th through 18th; register through IMFConnect.org. Visa registration deadline: September 1st, 2026.
- Managing Director visit to Argentina scheduled for July 28th and 29th.

### IMF response to the war in the Middle East and financing stance
- Most IMF members are seeking support in the form of policy advice and capacity development rather than predominantly new lending.
- For countries already on IMF-supported programs, support (policy advice, macroeconomic frameworks and financing) is being provided within existing arrangements; adjustments have been made in some cases through augmentation or rephasing.
- The IMF stands ready to use all its tools to support members as they navigate economic challenges arising from the conflict and associated commodity shocks.

### World Economic Outlook (WEO) July update — key assumptions and global outlook
- Two key assumptions underpinning the July WEO update:
  - The Strait of Hormuz starts to open in mid-July.
  - The average oil price assumed for 2026 is $89 a barrel.
- The global economy is described as resilient despite elevated uncertainty; two opposing forces are noted:
  - Negative supply shock from the war pushing up commodity prices (energy, fertilizer, food).
  - Positive demand and productivity shock from the technology cycle and AI-led investment.
- The WEO places scenario analysis centrally as a tool to quantify alternative outcomes in a highly uncertain environment.

### Monetary policy communications and forward guidance
- Forward guidance was particularly useful when policy interest rates were at the zero lower bound.
- As circumstances have changed (no longer at the zero lower bound), central banks are reassessing communication modalities.
- The IMF looks forward to engaging with the Federal Reserve on the findings of its communications task force.
- The IMF supports the use of scenario analysis by central banks to illustrate different potential outcomes under uncertainty.

### Country-specific updates and program statuses

- Argentina
  - WEO projections: growth at 3.5 percent in 2026 and 4 percent in 2027.
  - Projected gradual decline in inflation.
  - Argentina is identified as a net energy exporter, which has supported the economy amid the Middle East shock.
  - IMF welcomes Argentina's comprehensive financing strategy and greater transparency; Argentina's spreads narrowed after its publication.
  - IMF supports reform of the central bank charter to strengthen policy independence, clarify mandate, enhance accountability and transparency, and reduce fiscal dominance.
  - Managing Director Georgieva will visit Argentina on July 28th–29th to meet President Milei, the economic team and other stakeholders.

- Senegal
  - Zeine Zeidane, IMF Director, African Department, visited Senegal from July 3rd through 6th following a recent IMF staff visit.
  - Discussions focused on reaching a shared understanding of Senegal's financing needs and reform priorities to underpin a potential IMF-supported program; technical discussions are continuing.
  - Senegal continues to face significant debt challenges; IMF commends authorities for disclosure of hidden debt and steps to strengthen fiscal governance.
  - Timing for a Staff-Level Agreement remains uncertain; IMF will update when more to say.

- Lebanon
  - Ongoing two-track IMF engagement:
    - Crisis management measures to mitigate immediate humanitarian and macroeconomic impacts.
    - Program discussions focused on banking sector restructuring strategy and a medium-term fiscal strategy for a comprehensive IMF-supported arrangement.
  - The full economic impact of the conflict will be known over time; IMF remains engaged to support Lebanon's recovery.

- Egypt
  - IMF staff and Egyptian authorities reached a Staff-Level Agreement (SLA) on the Seventh Review under the EFF and the Second Review under the RSF; SLA announced on June 29th.
  - Executive Board expected to consider the review later in the summer.
  - Upon Board approval, Egypt would receive about $1.6 billion in financing.
  - Egypt’s timely macroeconomic policy adjustments have helped preserve macroeconomic stability; IMF advises continued program implementation and reforms to increase private sector-led growth.

- Venezuela
  - The IMF is coordinating with the authorities and other IFIs following a devastating earthquake; discussing mobilization of readily available reserves to address urgent humanitarian needs.
  - Reserve tranche position (member's readily available claim on the IMF): nearly U.S. $350 million as of July 8th.
  - Venezuela's SDR holdings: about $4.5 billion.
  - IMF clarified distinction between the reserve tranche and SDR holdings; both are reserve assets recorded separately at the IMF.
  - IMF working with counterparts to facilitate access to Venezuela's resources at the Fund.

- India
  - WEO projections: India is projected at 6.4 percent growth for fiscal year '26-'27 (also cited as calendar year 2027 in the briefing) and rising to 6.7 percent in 2027.
  - India remains a leading engine of global growth; IMF encourages continuation of structural reforms (skills, labor market flexibility, regulatory and compliance cost reductions, deeper trade integration).
  - Supply chain diversification has benefited India, concentrated in electronics: India's electronics exports rose by 24 percent in fiscal year '25-'26; smartphones have become a major export product, with increases happening largely through domestic contract manufacturers.

- China
  - WEO projections: growth slowing from 5 percent in 2025 to 4.6 percent in 2026 (small upgrade relative to April).
  - Structural challenges highlighted: persistently subdued domestic demand (particularly consumption), weakening productivity growth, and demographic headwinds from population aging.
  - IMF advises transition from export-led to consumption-led growth via more forceful expansionary macro policies, measures to reduce high household savings, and support for the property sector.

- United States
  - Q1 GDP growth: 2.1 percent (bounce back after a weak Q4 2025).
  - IMF forecasts growth at 2.3 percent in 2026.
  - IMF projects inflation to return to the 2 percent target by the end of 2027.
  - IMF notes inflation pressures from commodity price shocks but observes that inflation expectations have remained relatively contained; recommends the Federal Reserve proceed with caution and calibrate decisions to incoming data.

- Sub-Saharan Africa / Regional update
  - Regional growth expected to edge down slightly in 2026 to 4.3 percent.
  - In 2025, economic activity in Africa expanded at its fastest pace in over a decade and inflation fell.
  - Oil exporters in Sub-Saharan Africa likely to benefit from stronger revenues; oil importers and fragile states are more vulnerable due to limited fiscal space.
  - Primary drivers of inflation in the region are commodity prices (food and energy), large weight of these items in consumption baskets, exchange rate weaknesses, and in some cases fiscal dominance.
  - Migration is not seen as a primary driver of inflation; IMF policy advice emphasizes structural reforms, improved labor markets, business environment, and strong macroeconomic policy frameworks.

- Malawi
  - IMF staff team visited Malawi from June 8th to 18th to take stock of developments and initiate policy discussions aligned with the authorities' National Economic Recovery Plan.
  - Technical and policy discussions continue with the goal of agreeing a package of policies and reforms that could be supported under an ECF arrangement, with strong protections for priority social spending.
  - IMF Director, African Department, met Malawi authorities on July 8th and encouraged continued cooperation toward an ECF agreement.

- Ukraine
  - IMF reached a Staff-Level Agreement in June.
  - Executive Board expected to consider the first review in the coming weeks; IMF will announce a precise Board meeting date when available.

### IMF lending, financing metrics and operational notes
- IMF support modalities include policy advice, capacity development and financing within existing programs; adjustments via augmentation or rephasing have been used where appropriate.
- Specific financing figures mentioned:
  - Egypt: upon Board approval, about $1.6 billion in financing.
  - Venezuela reserve tranche: nearly U.S. $350 million as of July 8th.
  - Venezuela SDR holdings: about $4.5 billion.
- IMF emphasizes transparency, fiscal governance strengthening, and credible financing strategies to restore market confidence and support durable access to markets.

### Scenarios, uncertainty, and use of scenario analysis
- IMF underscores elevated uncertainty globally and endorses using scenario analysis to present alternative outcomes and quantify risks.
- Scenario analysis is highlighted as useful for both IMF forecasting (WEO) and for central banks adapting communications and policy frameworks in a changing environment.

*Source: Press Briefing Transcript: Julie Kozack, Director, Communications Department, July 9, 2026.*

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## References

- [Argentina and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/ARG/index.htm)
- [Lebanon and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/LBN/index.htm)
- [India and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/IND/index.htm)
- [República Bolivariana de Venezuela and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/VEN/index.htm)
- [Transcripts](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)
- [PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)
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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/07/09/tr-07092026-imf-press-briefing-transcript-july-09-2026_