## IMF Staff Concludes Visit to United Arab Emirates

_IMF News, July 17, 2026_

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## Bibliographic details
- Published: July 17, 2026

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### Mission timing and purpose
- Mission dates: July 7–16, 2026.
- Statement date: July 17, 2026.
- Press Release No.: 26/250.
- Objective: Discuss recent economic and financial developments, the outlook, and the authorities' policy priorities, and to prepare the ground for the 2026 Article IV consultation.

### Key assessment of economic resilience and outlook
- The UAE economy has shown "remarkable resilience to the conflict in the Middle East," supported by:
  - strong buffers;
  - timely and well-targeted policy response including by the government and the CBUAE Financial Institution Resilience Package;
  - rerouting of oil and other trade flows.
- Growth and activity projections and drivers:
  - Overall GDP: expected to be slightly lower in 2026 following robust expansion in 2025.
  - Driver of 2026 slowdown: slowdown in non-hydrocarbon activity as heightened uncertainty weighed on tourism, transportation, trade, and real estate.
  - Hydrocarbon growth: expected to pick up in the second half of 2026 as recovering oil exports and the ramp-up in production following the UAE's exit from OPEC more than offset conflict-related disruptions.
  - 2027: overall growth is projected to rebound strongly as hydrocarbon production scales up and non-hydrocarbon activity recovers, supported by normalizing tourism and trade flows.
  - Inflation: expected to edge up in 2026, reflecting the pass-through of higher global energy and food prices, before gradually easing over the medium term.
- Geopolitical and trade considerations:
  - Ongoing uncertainty about the duration and intensity of the conflict remains elevated.
  - The on-and-off closure of the Strait of Hormuz is weighing on activity.
  - Assumption noted: gradual normalization between the US and Iran underpins the projected rebound in the second half of the year.

### Fiscal and external positions
- Fiscal balance:
  - General government fiscal balance: expected to remain in surplus in 2026.
  - Factors supporting surplus: higher oil prices, conservative budgeting, high oil prices, frontloaded dividends, and expenditure-efficiency measures.
  - Surplus projection: the surplus is projected to narrow in 2026.
  - Targeted fiscal actions: targeted support to affected sectors and households and planned infrastructure projects will continue.
  - Public debt: low general government debt preserves ample fiscal space to respond to a more severe or prolonged shock if needed.
- External position:
  - External balances: expected to remain in surplus, though moderating in 2026 before recovering over the medium term as disruptions to non-hydrocarbon trade ease and oil exports increase.
  - International reserves: remain ample and continue to provide a comfortable level of import coverage.

### Financial sector and real estate
- Banking system:
  - Banks remain well-capitalized and liquid.
  - Capital buffers: well above required ratios.
  - Liquidity: tightened since the beginning of the conflict but remains ample.
  - Credit and deposits: continue to expand.
  - Private sector credit growth: expected to moderate reflecting a slowdown in non-hydrocarbon activity.
  - Banking sector exposure to real estate: described as contained.
- Real estate activity:
  - Real estate activity moderated in the first half of 2026 after several years of strong expansion.
  - Impact: uneven across segments and locations.
  - Prices: generally remained at or above their 2025 levels.
  - Monitoring: evolving market conditions warrant continued monitoring.

### Policy recommendations and priorities
- Near-term policy stance:
  - Economic policies should remain agile and continue to focus on maintaining economic and financial stability and mitigating the economic impact of the conflict.
  - Responses should be proactive, well-targeted, and capable of being scaled up if downside risks materialize.
- Structural priorities:
  - Advance diversification and continued structural reforms to sustain growth.
  - Deeper trade integration, supported by the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements and National Programme to Strengthen Supply Chain Resilience, is recommended to reinforce non-oil growth and support resilience to external shocks.
  - Sustained investment in technology and human capital to reinforce non-oil growth and resilience.

### Concluding staff appreciation
- The IMF team expressed appreciation to the authorities and other stakeholders for their collaboration and the fruitful discussions.

*IMF Staff Concludes Visit to United Arab Emirates — July 17, 2026*

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## References

- [United Arab Emirates and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/ARE/index.htm)
- [Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)
- [PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)
- [https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/07/17/pr26250-united-arab-emirates-imf-staff-concludes-visit_