## IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Brazil _IMF News, July 23, 2026_ ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Brazil](https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/07/23/pr26257-brazil-imf-executive-board-concludes-2026-article-iv-consultation) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2026/07/23/pr26257-brazil-imf-executive-board-concludes-2026-article-iv-consultation/index.md) - [Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2026/07/23/pr26257-brazil-imf-executive-board-concludes-2026-article-iv-consultation/index.json) - [Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2026/07/23/pr26257-brazil-imf-executive-board-concludes-2026-article-iv-consultation/bundle-manifest.json) ## Bibliographic details - Published: July 23, 2026 --- ### Economic outlook and projections - Growth is projected to rise to 2.4 percent in 2026, before easing in 2027, and to recover to about 2.5 percent over the medium term. - Factors supporting growth: - Positive terms of trade associated with higher global oil prices. - Fiscal support. - Normalization of monetary policy. - Structural factors, notably the implementation of the 2023 VAT reform and acceleration in hydrocarbon production. - Medium-term risks: - Downside: escalation of geopolitical tensions (especially in the Middle East), higher inflation, tighter financial conditions, lower global demand, global trade tensions, and a weaker-than-envisaged fiscal effort. - Upside: stronger-than-expected household consumption, faster implementation of productivity-enhancing reforms, and the ecological transformation. ### Inflation and monetary policy - Inflation forecast: - Expected to reach 5.6 percent by end-2026. - Gradually converging to the 3 percent target by mid-2028. - Monetary stance: - Interest rate cuts have been consistent with Brazil’s inflation targeting framework. - A slower normalization of monetary policy than expected before the Middle East war was considered appropriate. - Monetary policy should remain data-dependent and flexible amid elevated global uncertainty. - A stronger fiscal stance would support disinflation and pave the way for lower interest rates. - Exchange rate and reserves: - The flexible exchange rate regime and adequate international reserves remain important shock absorbers. - Recommendation to phase out the multiple currency practice and exchange restriction arising from the financial transaction tax. ### Fiscal policy, public debt, and recommendations - Main fiscal guidance: - To put public debt on a firmly downward path and open space for priority investments, save oil-related revenue windfalls and implement a more ambitious fiscal effort, while protecting targeted social spending. - Specific policy measures suggested by Directors: - Save oil-related revenue windfalls. - Reduce spending rigidities. - Enhance expenditure efficiency. - Phase out inefficient tax expenditures. - Strengthen the fiscal framework, including: - Comprehensive spending limits. - A binding medium-term debt anchor. - Linking spending growth to structural revenues. - Incorporate oil price volatility considerations into the fiscal framework. - Fiscal and debt indicators (selected, exact values preserved): - Central government primary balance (national representation, incl. BCB) 4/: -2.4 (2023), -0.4 (2024), -0.5 (2025), -0.2 (2026), 1.0 (2027), 1.1 (2028). - General government NLB primary balance: -2.2 (2023), -0.3 (2024), -0.1 (2025). - General government NLB structural primary bal. (in percent of potential GDP): -1.8 (2023), -1.9 (2024), -0.8 (2025), -1.3 (2026), -0.6 (2027). - General government NLB: -7.7 (2023), -6.3 (2024), -7.4 (2025), -8.2 (2026), -7.0 (2027), -6.0 (2028), -5.9 (2029), -5.7 (2030). - Net public sector debt: 60.4 (2023), 61.3 (2024), 65.2 (2025), 72.3 (2026), 75.0 (2027), 77.4 (2028), 79.3 (2029), 80.1 (2030), 80.4 (2031). - General government gross debt, Authorities’ definition: 73.8 (2023), 76.3 (2024), 78.6 (2025), 86.6 (2026), 88.7 (2027), 90.8 (2028), 92.5 (2029), 94.1 (2030). - General government gross debt: 84.0 (2023), 87.0 (2024), 93.3 (2025), 97.8 (2026), 100.0 (2027), 102.0 (2028), 103.7 (2029), 104.8 (2030), 105.3 (2031). ### Financial sector resilience and supervision - Assessment: - The 2026 Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) found the financial sector remains resilient with systemic risks contained. - Banks are well‑capitalized and liquid. - Recommendations: - Further strengthen banking and securities market supervision, including completing the bank resolution framework and enhancing supervisory capacity. - Continue deployment of the macroprudential toolkit and take additional steps to address rising household indebtedness. - Strengthen crypto asset regulation and address cybersecurity risks. ### Structural reforms, labor, trade, and climate agenda - Structural priorities supported by Directors: - Continued implementation of the landmark 2023 VAT reform. - Improvements in the business environment and stronger governance. - Greater labor force participation, particularly among women. - Strengthening anti‑corruption and AML/CFT frameworks. - Advancing skills development and AI adoption. - Continued implementation of the Ecological Transformation Plan. - Deepening and diversifying trade linkages, including through recent trade agreements. - Directors positively noted Brazil’s leadership in the climate agenda and commitment to multilateralism. ### Key social, demographic, and macroeconomic indicators (selected exact figures from Table 1) - Social and demographic: - Area (thousands of sq. km.): 8,510 - Population (2025, est.) Total (millions): 213.4 - Population annual rate of growth (percent): 0.4 - Density (per sq. km.): 25.1 - Life expectancy at birth (years): 76.6 - Infant mortality (per thousand live births): 12.3 - Poverty rate (in percent, 2024) 2/: 23.1 - GDP per capita (2025): US$10,683 - GDP, local currency (2025): R$12,739 billion - GDP, dollars (2025): US$2,280 billion - Selected economic indicators (annual percent changes and levels): - GDP at constant prices: 3.2 (2023), 3.4 (2024), 2.3 (2025), 2.4 (2026), 2.2 (2027), 2.5 (2028 implied in narrative medium term). - Consumption: 4.5 (2023), 1.5 (2024), 1.9 (2025), 1.8 (2026). - Investment (GFCF): -3.0 (2023), 6.9 (2024), 2.9 (2025), 4.1 (2026), 0.7 (2027), 2.1 (2028). - Consumer prices (IPCA, end of period): 4.6 (2023), 4.8 (2024), 4.3 (2025), 5.6 (2026), 3.1 (2027). - Gross national saving (percent of GDP): 21.8 (2023), 19.6 (2024), 21.2 (2025), 22.5 (2026), 21.3 (2027), 20.4 (2028), 20.5 (2029), 20.3 (2030). - Current account (percent of GDP): -1.2 (2023), -2.9 (2024), -2.5 (2025), -2.1 (2026), -1.7 (2027). - Trade balance (percent of GDP): 3.0 (2023), 2.6 (2024). - Exports (percent of GDP): 15.7 (2023), 15.4 (2024), 14.7 (2025), 14.1 (2026), 13.9 (2027). - Imports (percent of GDP): 11.5 (2023), 12.5 (2024), 11.9 (2025), 11.1 (2026), 10.9 (2027). - Total external debt: 33.4 (2023), 32.8 (2024), 35.9 (2025), 31.5 (2026), 29.5 (2027), 28.3 (2028), 27.1 (2029), 25.9 (2030). - Output Gap: 0.6 (2023), 1.3 (2024), 0.8 (2025), 0.5 (2026), 0.2 (2027), 0.1 (2028), 0.0 (2029). - SELIC policy rate, end of period: 11.8 (2023), 15.0 (2024), 14.0 (2025), 9.3 (2026), 6.8 (2027), 7.2 (2028). - Gross official reserves (in US$ billions): 355 (2023), 330 (2024), 358 (2025). *Press Release No. 26/257, July 23, 2026.* --- ## References - [IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance) - [Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews) - [PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/) - [www.imf.org/Brazil](https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/BRA) - [http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm](http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm) - [https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home) _Source: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/07/23/pr26257-brazil-imf-executive-board-concludes-2026-article-iv-consultation_