{ "title": "IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Uganda", "publication": "IMF News, July 28, 2026", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/07/28/pr26265-uganda-imf-concludes-2026-aiv-consultation", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/07/28/pr26265-uganda-imf-concludes-2026-aiv-consultation", "overlayPath": "/en/news/articles/2026/07/28/pr26265-uganda-imf-concludes-2026-aiv-consultation/index.md", "summary": "The Ugandan economy has performed well since the expiration of the 2021–24 Extended Credit Facility arrangement, with a weak fiscal position as a notable exception. Strong growth momentum continues, supported by robust domestic demand, low inflation, and a pickup in private sector credit.", "publishDate": "2026-07-28", "sections": [ { "heading": "Macroeconomic performance and outlook", "content": "- Growth reached 6.3 percent in FY2025/26 (Q1–Q3), maintaining the same strong momentum recorded in FY2024/25.\n- Real GDP projections:\n - 2025/26: 8.7\n - 2026/27: 8.0\n - 2027/28: 6.4\n - 2028/29: 6.2\n - 2029/30: 5.8\n- Non-Oil real GDP:\n - 2023/24: 6.0\n- Headline and core inflation:\n - Headline inflation (period average) 2025/26: 3.4\n - Core inflation (period average) 2025/26: 3.9\n - Headline inflation stood at 3.7 percent in June (2026)\n - Core inflation stood at 3.4 percent in June (2026)\n - Bank of Uganda’s medium-term core inflation target: 5 percent\n- Projection on inflation path:\n - Headline inflation expected to be above 5 percent in FY2026/27\n - Core inflation projected to reach the BoU’s 5‑percent medium-term target before end‑2026\n- International reserves and external sector:\n - Gross international reserves reached $6.1 billion at end May 2026 (or about 2.7 months imports of goods and services)\n - Current account balance:\n - 2023/24: -8.0\n - 2024/25: -5.4\n - 2025/26: -3.2\n - 2026/27: -1.9\n - 2027/28: -2.0\n - Current account balance (excluding grants):\n - 2023/24: -7.3\n - 2024/25: -5.6\n - 2025/26: -3.4\n - Exports (goods and services) 2025/26: 34.4\n - Imports (goods and services) 2025/26: 34.7\n - Despite strong coffee and gold exports, the current deficit remains high due to private sector imports of capital goods associated with investment activity, increased gold imports, and a wider services account deficit.\n- Terms of trade (2025/26): 1.9" }, { "heading": "Fiscal developments and public debt", "content": "- Overall fiscal deficit:\n - FY2023/24: -4.7 percent of GDP\n - FY2024/25: -6.0 percent of GDP\n - FY2025/26 (projected): -7.1 percent of GDP\n - Subsequent projections:\n - 2026/27: -6.6\n - 2027/28: -6.2\n - 2028/29: -6.3\n - 2029/30: -6.4\n- Drivers of fiscal deterioration:\n - Weaker fiscal position driven by higher recurrent spending and rising interest payments.\n - Spending pressures persisted in the first eight months of FY2025/26.\n- Revenue and expenditure (central government, percent of GDP):\n - Revenue and grants:\n - 2023/24: 14.1\n - 2024/25: 14.7\n - 2025/26: 15.4\n - 2026/27: 16.3\n - 2027/28: 16.5\n - 2028/29: 16.8\n - 2029/30: 17.1\n - Grants:\n - 2023/24: 0.5\n - 2024/25: 0.6\n - 2025/26: 0.4\n - Oil revenue:\n - 2025/26: 0.0\n - 2026/27: 0.1\n - 2027/28: 1.7\n - 2028/29: 2.1\n - 2029/30: 2.2\n - Expenditure:\n - 2023/24: 18.8\n - 2024/25: 21.7\n - 2025/26: 22.0\n - 2026/27: 22.5\n - 2027/28: 22.8\n - 2028/29: 23.1\n - 2029/30: 23.3\n - Current expenditure (percent of GDP):\n - 2023/24: 13.2\n - 2024/25: 15.2\n - 2025/26: 15.8\n - 2026/27: 15.5\n - 2027/28: 15.7\n - 2028/29: 16.0\n - 2029/30: 16.4\n - Capital (percent of GDP, include net lending and investment on hydropower projects; exclude BoU recapitalization):\n - 2023/24: 5.5\n- Primary balance and domestic borrowing:\n - Primary balance:\n - 2023/24: -1.6\n - 2024/25: -2.3\n - 2025/26: -2.1\n - 2026/27: -1.4\n - 2027/28: -1.2\n - 2028/29: -1.0\n - 2029/30: -0.3\n - Net domestic borrowing (share of overall deficit):\n - 2024/25: 5.6\n- Public gross debt (percent of GDP):\n - 2023/24: 50.6\n - 2024/25: 52.3\n - 2025/26: 55.1\n - 2026/27: 55.5\n - 2027/28: 55.9\n - 2028/29: 57.1\n - 2029/30: 58.2\n - 2030/31: 59.2\n - External debt:\n - 2023/24: 28.1\n - 2024/25: 27.2\n - 2025/26: 27.3\n - 2026/27: 25.4\n - 2027/28: 24.1\n - 2028/29: 22.4\n - 2029/30: 21.9\n - Domestic debt:\n - 2023/24: 25.1\n - 2024/25: 27.8\n - 2025/26: 30.1\n - 2026/27: 31.8\n - 2027/28: 33.8\n - 2028/29: 35.8\n - 2029/30: 37.3\n- Non-oil primary balance:\n - 2023/24: -2.4\n - 2024/25: -1.8\n- Non-oil primary domestic balance:\n - 2023/24: -0.1\n - 2024/25: -0.8\n - 2025/26: -0.5\n - 2026/27: -0.4" }, { "heading": "Financial sector and monetary policy", "content": "- Bank of Uganda policy rate (latest available, May 2026): 9.8 percent\n- Broad money (M3) growth:\n - 2023/24: 13.3\n - 2024/25: 11.2\n - 2025/26: 14.6\n - 2026/27: 13.4\n - 2027/28: 11.7\n - 2028/29: 12.3\n - 2029/30: 11.6\n- Credit to non-government sector:\n - 2023/24: 9.7\n - 2024/25: 10.3\n - 2025/26: 9.1\n - 2026/27: 8.9\n - 2027/28: 8.6\n - 2028/29: 8.5\n- M3/GDP (percent):\n - 2023/24: 20.4\n - 2024/25: 20.7\n - 2025/26: 20.9\n - 2026/27: 21.0\n - 2027/28: 21.1\n - 2028/29: 21.2\n - 2029/30: 21.4\n - 2030/31: 21.5\n- Non-performing loans (NPLs, percent of total loans; latest available December 2025): 3.7 (2023/24), 3.6 (2024/25)\n- Directors commended the financial system’s strong capital and liquidity buffers, while calling for vigilant monitoring of the sovereign–bank nexus and structural measures to deepen lending and financial inclusion." }, { "heading": "Executive Board assessment and policy recommendations", "content": "- Board views:\n - Welcomed Uganda’s continued robust growth momentum, low and stable inflation, and favorable outlook bolstered by anticipated start of oil production.\n - Expressed concern about the weakening fiscal position, high debt service burden, and crowding out of private sector credit.\n - Noted significant downside risks, including spillovers from a prolonged conflict in the Middle East, tighter global financial conditions, further delays in oil production, and climate-related shocks.\n- Fiscal policy recommendations:\n - Stronger fiscal consolidation anchored in enhanced domestic revenue mobilization and improved expenditure discipline is needed to reduce debt vulnerabilities, ease crowding-out pressures, and rebuild policy space.\n - Swift adoption and implementation of the Domestic Revenue Mobilization Strategy to broaden the tax base, improve administration, and rationalize tax expenditures.\n - Strengthen budgetary discipline, including tightening controls on supplementary spending, improving spending efficiency, and enhancing public financial management.\n - Establish a robust and transparent framework for managing oil revenues to safeguard sustainability and support intergenerational equity.\n- Monetary and exchange rate policy recommendations:\n - Support for Bank of Uganda’s tight monetary policy stance to anchor inflation expectations amid successive shocks and heightened global uncertainty.\n - Monetary policy should remain data-driven and forward-looking, alongside continued efforts to enhance policy transmission.\n - Highlighted importance of exchange rate flexibility for absorbing external shocks and the need to continue building foreign exchange reserves.\n - Support for continued efforts to strengthen central bank independence, including full implementation of the 2021 Safeguards Assessment recommendations.\n- Structural and governance recommendations:\n - Accelerate structural reforms to improve the business environment and strengthen governance to support private sector-led inclusive growth and enhance resilience.\n - Strengthen anti-corruption framework and the judiciary, reduce non-tariff barriers, and deepen regional trade integration.\n - Continue efforts to strengthen climate resilience." }, { "heading": "Risks and scenarios", "content": "- Key downside risks identified:\n - Prolonged or intensified conflict in the Middle East.\n - Ebola outbreak.\n - Tighter global financial conditions.\n - Potential delays in oil production.\n - Climate‑related shocks.\n- Near-term outlook sensitivities:\n - Exchange rate movements, elevated energy prices, and higher transportation costs are expected to push headline inflation above 5 percent in FY2026/27.\n - Start of oil production is expected to boost growth momentum and make lasting improvements in fiscal and external balances, conditional on effective management of oil revenues." }, { "heading": "Selected key numerical indicators (highlights)", "content": "- Growth:\n - Real GDP 2024/25: 6.3\n - Real GDP 2025/26: 8.7\n- Inflation:\n - Headline June 2026: 3.7 percent\n - Core June 2026: 3.4 percent\n- Reserves:\n - Gross international reserves: $6.1 billion at end May 2026 (about 2.7 months of imports)\n- Fiscal balance:\n - Overall deficit FY2024/25: -6.0 percent of GDP\n - Projected overall deficit FY2025/26: -7.1 percent of GDP\n- Public gross debt:\n - 2025/26: 55.1 percent of GDP\n - 2030/31: 59.2 percent of GDP\n- Bank of Uganda policy rate (May 2026): 9.8 percent\n- GDP at current market prices (USh. billion):\n - 2025/26: 250,808\n - 2026/27: 286,210\n- GDP per capita (Nominal US$):\n - 2025/26: 1,402\n - 2026/27: 1,486\n- Population (million, based on 2024 census): 45.9\n\nSource: IMF Executive Board communiqué on the conclusion of the 2026 Article IV Consultation with Uganda.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- Uganda and the IMF\n- IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- https://www.imf.org/en/countries/uga page.\n- http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/07/28/pr26265-uganda-imf-concludes-2026-aiv-consultation" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2026/07/28/pr26265-uganda-imf-concludes-2026-aiv-consultation/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2026/07/28/pr26265-uganda-imf-concludes-2026-aiv-consultation/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2026/07/28/pr26265-uganda-imf-concludes-2026-aiv-consultation/bundle-manifest.json)", "Published: July 28, 2026", "Growth reached 6.3 percent in FY2025/26 (Q1–Q3), maintaining the same strong momentum recorded in FY2024/25.", "Real GDP projections:", "Non-Oil real GDP:", "Headline and core inflation:", "Projection on inflation path:", "International reserves and external sector:", "Terms of trade (2025/26): 1.9", "Overall fiscal deficit:", "Drivers of fiscal deterioration:", "Revenue and expenditure (central government, percent of GDP):", "Primary balance and domestic borrowing:", "Public gross debt (percent of GDP):", "Non-oil primary balance:", "Non-oil primary domestic balance:", "Bank of Uganda policy rate (latest available, May 2026): 9.8 percent", "Broad money (M3) growth:", "Credit to non-government sector:", "M3/GDP (percent):", "Non-performing loans (NPLs, percent of total loans; latest available December 2025): 3.7 (2023/24), 3.6 (2024/25)", "Directors commended the financial system’s strong capital and liquidity buffers, while calling for vigilant monitoring of the sovereign–bank nexus and structural measures to deepen lending and financial inclusion.", "Board views:", "Fiscal policy recommendations:", "Monetary and exchange rate policy recommendations:", "Structural and governance recommendations:", "Key downside risks identified:", "Near-term outlook sensitivities:", "Growth:", "Inflation:", "Reserves:", "Fiscal balance:", "Public gross debt:", "Bank of Uganda policy rate (May 2026): 9.8 percent", "GDP at current market prices (USh. billion):", "GDP per capita (Nominal US$):", "Population (million, based on 2024 census): 45.9", "[Uganda and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/UGA/index.htm)", "[IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)", "[Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)", "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)", "[https://www.imf.org/en/countries/uga page.](https://www.imf.org/en/countries/uga%20page.)", "[http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm](http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm)", "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)" ], "alternates": { "markdown": "/en/news/articles/2026/07/28/pr26265-uganda-imf-concludes-2026-aiv-consultation/index.md", "json": "/en/news/articles/2026/07/28/pr26265-uganda-imf-concludes-2026-aiv-consultation/index.json", "bundleManifest": "/en/news/articles/2026/07/28/pr26265-uganda-imf-concludes-2026-aiv-consultation/bundle-manifest.json" }, "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-26T04:49:42.311Z" }