## IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Uganda _IMF News, July 28, 2026_ ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Uganda](https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/07/28/pr26265-uganda-imf-concludes-2026-aiv-consultation) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2026/07/28/pr26265-uganda-imf-concludes-2026-aiv-consultation/index.md) - [Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2026/07/28/pr26265-uganda-imf-concludes-2026-aiv-consultation/index.json) - [Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2026/07/28/pr26265-uganda-imf-concludes-2026-aiv-consultation/bundle-manifest.json) ## Bibliographic details - Published: July 28, 2026 --- ### Macroeconomic performance and outlook - Growth reached 6.3 percent in FY2025/26 (Q1–Q3), maintaining the same strong momentum recorded in FY2024/25. - Real GDP projections: - 2025/26: 8.7 - 2026/27: 8.0 - 2027/28: 6.4 - 2028/29: 6.2 - 2029/30: 5.8 - Non-Oil real GDP: - 2023/24: 6.0 - Headline and core inflation: - Headline inflation (period average) 2025/26: 3.4 - Core inflation (period average) 2025/26: 3.9 - Headline inflation stood at 3.7 percent in June (2026) - Core inflation stood at 3.4 percent in June (2026) - Bank of Uganda’s medium-term core inflation target: 5 percent - Projection on inflation path: - Headline inflation expected to be above 5 percent in FY2026/27 - Core inflation projected to reach the BoU’s 5‑percent medium-term target before end‑2026 - International reserves and external sector: - Gross international reserves reached $6.1 billion at end May 2026 (or about 2.7 months imports of goods and services) - Current account balance: - 2023/24: -8.0 - 2024/25: -5.4 - 2025/26: -3.2 - 2026/27: -1.9 - 2027/28: -2.0 - Current account balance (excluding grants): - 2023/24: -7.3 - 2024/25: -5.6 - 2025/26: -3.4 - Exports (goods and services) 2025/26: 34.4 - Imports (goods and services) 2025/26: 34.7 - Despite strong coffee and gold exports, the current deficit remains high due to private sector imports of capital goods associated with investment activity, increased gold imports, and a wider services account deficit. - Terms of trade (2025/26): 1.9 ### Fiscal developments and public debt - Overall fiscal deficit: - FY2023/24: -4.7 percent of GDP - FY2024/25: -6.0 percent of GDP - FY2025/26 (projected): -7.1 percent of GDP - Subsequent projections: - 2026/27: -6.6 - 2027/28: -6.2 - 2028/29: -6.3 - 2029/30: -6.4 - Drivers of fiscal deterioration: - Weaker fiscal position driven by higher recurrent spending and rising interest payments. - Spending pressures persisted in the first eight months of FY2025/26. - Revenue and expenditure (central government, percent of GDP): - Revenue and grants: - 2023/24: 14.1 - 2024/25: 14.7 - 2025/26: 15.4 - 2026/27: 16.3 - 2027/28: 16.5 - 2028/29: 16.8 - 2029/30: 17.1 - Grants: - 2023/24: 0.5 - 2024/25: 0.6 - 2025/26: 0.4 - Oil revenue: - 2025/26: 0.0 - 2026/27: 0.1 - 2027/28: 1.7 - 2028/29: 2.1 - 2029/30: 2.2 - Expenditure: - 2023/24: 18.8 - 2024/25: 21.7 - 2025/26: 22.0 - 2026/27: 22.5 - 2027/28: 22.8 - 2028/29: 23.1 - 2029/30: 23.3 - Current expenditure (percent of GDP): - 2023/24: 13.2 - 2024/25: 15.2 - 2025/26: 15.8 - 2026/27: 15.5 - 2027/28: 15.7 - 2028/29: 16.0 - 2029/30: 16.4 - Capital (percent of GDP, include net lending and investment on hydropower projects; exclude BoU recapitalization): - 2023/24: 5.5 - Primary balance and domestic borrowing: - Primary balance: - 2023/24: -1.6 - 2024/25: -2.3 - 2025/26: -2.1 - 2026/27: -1.4 - 2027/28: -1.2 - 2028/29: -1.0 - 2029/30: -0.3 - Net domestic borrowing (share of overall deficit): - 2024/25: 5.6 - Public gross debt (percent of GDP): - 2023/24: 50.6 - 2024/25: 52.3 - 2025/26: 55.1 - 2026/27: 55.5 - 2027/28: 55.9 - 2028/29: 57.1 - 2029/30: 58.2 - 2030/31: 59.2 - External debt: - 2023/24: 28.1 - 2024/25: 27.2 - 2025/26: 27.3 - 2026/27: 25.4 - 2027/28: 24.1 - 2028/29: 22.4 - 2029/30: 21.9 - Domestic debt: - 2023/24: 25.1 - 2024/25: 27.8 - 2025/26: 30.1 - 2026/27: 31.8 - 2027/28: 33.8 - 2028/29: 35.8 - 2029/30: 37.3 - Non-oil primary balance: - 2023/24: -2.4 - 2024/25: -1.8 - Non-oil primary domestic balance: - 2023/24: -0.1 - 2024/25: -0.8 - 2025/26: -0.5 - 2026/27: -0.4 ### Financial sector and monetary policy - Bank of Uganda policy rate (latest available, May 2026): 9.8 percent - Broad money (M3) growth: - 2023/24: 13.3 - 2024/25: 11.2 - 2025/26: 14.6 - 2026/27: 13.4 - 2027/28: 11.7 - 2028/29: 12.3 - 2029/30: 11.6 - Credit to non-government sector: - 2023/24: 9.7 - 2024/25: 10.3 - 2025/26: 9.1 - 2026/27: 8.9 - 2027/28: 8.6 - 2028/29: 8.5 - M3/GDP (percent): - 2023/24: 20.4 - 2024/25: 20.7 - 2025/26: 20.9 - 2026/27: 21.0 - 2027/28: 21.1 - 2028/29: 21.2 - 2029/30: 21.4 - 2030/31: 21.5 - Non-performing loans (NPLs, percent of total loans; latest available December 2025): 3.7 (2023/24), 3.6 (2024/25) - Directors commended the financial system’s strong capital and liquidity buffers, while calling for vigilant monitoring of the sovereign–bank nexus and structural measures to deepen lending and financial inclusion. ### Executive Board assessment and policy recommendations - Board views: - Welcomed Uganda’s continued robust growth momentum, low and stable inflation, and favorable outlook bolstered by anticipated start of oil production. - Expressed concern about the weakening fiscal position, high debt service burden, and crowding out of private sector credit. - Noted significant downside risks, including spillovers from a prolonged conflict in the Middle East, tighter global financial conditions, further delays in oil production, and climate-related shocks. - Fiscal policy recommendations: - Stronger fiscal consolidation anchored in enhanced domestic revenue mobilization and improved expenditure discipline is needed to reduce debt vulnerabilities, ease crowding-out pressures, and rebuild policy space. - Swift adoption and implementation of the Domestic Revenue Mobilization Strategy to broaden the tax base, improve administration, and rationalize tax expenditures. - Strengthen budgetary discipline, including tightening controls on supplementary spending, improving spending efficiency, and enhancing public financial management. - Establish a robust and transparent framework for managing oil revenues to safeguard sustainability and support intergenerational equity. - Monetary and exchange rate policy recommendations: - Support for Bank of Uganda’s tight monetary policy stance to anchor inflation expectations amid successive shocks and heightened global uncertainty. - Monetary policy should remain data-driven and forward-looking, alongside continued efforts to enhance policy transmission. - Highlighted importance of exchange rate flexibility for absorbing external shocks and the need to continue building foreign exchange reserves. - Support for continued efforts to strengthen central bank independence, including full implementation of the 2021 Safeguards Assessment recommendations. - Structural and governance recommendations: - Accelerate structural reforms to improve the business environment and strengthen governance to support private sector-led inclusive growth and enhance resilience. - Strengthen anti-corruption framework and the judiciary, reduce non-tariff barriers, and deepen regional trade integration. - Continue efforts to strengthen climate resilience. ### Risks and scenarios - Key downside risks identified: - Prolonged or intensified conflict in the Middle East. - Ebola outbreak. - Tighter global financial conditions. - Potential delays in oil production. - Climate‑related shocks. - Near-term outlook sensitivities: - Exchange rate movements, elevated energy prices, and higher transportation costs are expected to push headline inflation above 5 percent in FY2026/27. - Start of oil production is expected to boost growth momentum and make lasting improvements in fiscal and external balances, conditional on effective management of oil revenues. ### Selected key numerical indicators (highlights) - Growth: - Real GDP 2024/25: 6.3 - Real GDP 2025/26: 8.7 - Inflation: - Headline June 2026: 3.7 percent - Core June 2026: 3.4 percent - Reserves: - Gross international reserves: $6.1 billion at end May 2026 (about 2.7 months of imports) - Fiscal balance: - Overall deficit FY2024/25: -6.0 percent of GDP - Projected overall deficit FY2025/26: -7.1 percent of GDP - Public gross debt: - 2025/26: 55.1 percent of GDP - 2030/31: 59.2 percent of GDP - Bank of Uganda policy rate (May 2026): 9.8 percent - GDP at current market prices (USh. billion): - 2025/26: 250,808 - 2026/27: 286,210 - GDP per capita (Nominal US$): - 2025/26: 1,402 - 2026/27: 1,486 - Population (million, based on 2024 census): 45.9 *Source: IMF Executive Board communiqué on the conclusion of the 2026 Article IV Consultation with Uganda.* --- ## References - [Uganda and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/UGA/index.htm) - [IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance) - [Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews) - [PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/) - [https://www.imf.org/en/countries/uga page.](https://www.imf.org/en/countries/uga%20page.) - [http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm](http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm) - [https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home) _Source: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/07/28/pr26265-uganda-imf-concludes-2026-aiv-consultation_