## IMF Staff Concludes Staff Visit to Syria

_IMF News, August 4, 2026_

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## Bibliographic details
- Published: August 4, 2026

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### Mission summary
- IMF staff team visited Damascus from July 19–23, 2026, led by Ron van Rooden.
- Purpose: assess Syria’s economic conditions, discuss reform progress and policy priorities, and agree on further technical assistance as part of the IMF’s intensified engagement with Syria.
- Concluding note: "This mission will not result in a Board discussion." End-of-Mission press release conveys preliminary findings of IMF staff and does not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board.

### Economic outlook and growth
- Syria’s recovery is strengthening, with "double-digit growth expected in 2026 and continued strong growth in 2027."
- Drivers of growth cited:
  - improving agriculture,
  - hydrocarbon production,
  - electricity provision,
  - trade and services,
  - refugee returns,
  - an increasing number of visitors,
  - government spending.
- Historical/contextual points:
  - In 2025 the economy "started to recover" with improved consumer and investor sentiment following the regime change and "the return of about 1.5 million refugees."
  - Recovery in 2025 helped offset adverse effects of a major drought that affected agriculture.
- Caveats:
  - Growth is uneven across regions.
  - Poverty "remains widespread" despite some reductions.

### Inflation outlook and drivers
- Inflation trajectory:
  - "Inflation, which had slowed markedly in 2025 to low double digits, has picked up considerably so far in 2026."
  - Inflation "is expected to slow in 2027, provided import price pressures ease and sound fiscal and monetary policies are pursued."
- Factors contributing to higher inflation in 2026:
  - higher import prices, notably for fuel and food, due to the regional conflict;
  - strong domestic demand, including public sector wage increases (noted as "albeit from very low levels");
  - higher utility prices to achieve cost recovery and reduce quasi-fiscal costs;
  - rising housing cost.

### Fiscal performance and public finances
- Fiscal developments:
  - "The central government budget ended 2025 with a small surplus" achieved by containing spending and focusing on essential needs.
  - Revenues projected to increase substantially in 2026, with "a significant increase in tax and customs revenues already realized in the first half of the year."
  - Additional 2026 revenue sources: rising hydro-carbon revenues and some one-off revenues, including from telecom license and fuel transit fees.
  - Expected financing and revenues will "allow the execution of most budgeted expenditures," though resource constraints will likely require capital spending to be contained.
- Policy guidance for 2027:
  - Maintain sound fiscal policies.
  - Base the 2027 central government budget on conservative revenue and financing assumptions.
  - Contain current spending.
- Public financial management priorities:
  - Continue strengthening public financial management, building on progress in budget preparation and execution.
  - Contain and enhance oversight and controls over off-budget operations, quasi-fiscal activities, and contingent liabilities, including from government guarantees.
  - Improve revenue mobilization through tax reform and strengthening tax and customs administration; "tax exemptions should be limited."
  - Improve spending prioritization to create fiscal space for development spending and to enhance the social safety net.

### Humanitarian and development financing
- "Given Syria’s large humanitarian and development needs, strong and timely international financial support is still needed."
- Sustainable reintegration of returning refugees and internally displaced people requires support beyond humanitarian assistance, focusing on:
  - creating productive employment opportunities,
  - enhancing public service delivery,
  - restoring housing and infrastructure.
- Mobilizing financing for development will depend on progress toward addressing Syria’s legacy debt in a comprehensive manner and developing a domestic securities market.

### Financial sector, central bank, and AML/CFT
- Central Bank and monetary framework:
  - "The Central Bank of Syria has successfully managed the introduction of the new currency."
  - Monetary policy remains "severely constrained by a highly dysfunctional banking system and a lack of monetary policy instruments."
  - Immediate priorities include:
    - development and adoption of new central bank and banking laws—providing the central bank with a mandate to ensure price stability and strong bank supervision and resolution powers;
    - conducting a thorough assessment of banks’ financial health in line with international best practice.
- Banking sector rehabilitation:
  - Urgent need to accelerate efforts to rehabilitate the banking system so it can fulfill roles in financial intermediation and facilitating payments domestically and internationally, and enable effective monetary policy transmission.
- AML/CFT and international integration:
  - Enhance the AML/CFT framework, including to achieve Syria’s removal from FATF’s grey list, to promote re-integration into the international financial system and facilitate investment and financial flows.

### Data, statistics, and Article IV consultations
- Progress and gaps:
  - Progress has been made in preparing a debt sustainability analysis, notably with "the compilation of comprehensive debt data."
  - Gaps in availability and quality of essential economic data remain, hampering more detailed assessment of economic developments.
- Technical assistance priorities for statistics:
  - Improve statistics covering national accounts, price, balance of payments, government finance, and monetary and financial statistics.
  - Progress in data availability and quality will facilitate the resumption of Article IV consultations with Syria, as requested by the authorities.

### Technical assistance program agreed
- An extensive program of technical assistance was agreed for the period ahead, focusing on:
  - Fiscal reforms:
    - (i) public financial management, including cash management, and budget preparation and execution;
    - (ii) revenue mobilization, including tax policy and tax and customs administration;
    - (iii) public debt management and developing local capital markets.
  - Financial sector reforms:
    - (i) preparation of new financial sector legislation and regulation;
    - (ii) rehabilitation of the banking sector;
    - (iii) strengthening banking supervision;
    - (iv) enhancing the AML/CFT framework;
    - (v) supporting the central bank in developing and implementing an appropriate monetary policy framework.
  - Statistics and data improvements to support surveillance and policy design.

### Meetings and acknowledgments
- The staff team met with Minister of Finance Mohamad Yisr Barnieh, Governor of the Central Bank of Syria Safwat Raslan, and other senior officials.
- The staff team expressed gratitude for the authorities' transparent and constructive discussions and their hospitality during the mission.

*IMF Press Release No. 26/272, August 4, 2026.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/08/03/pr26272-syria-imf-staff-concludes-staff-visit_