{
  "title": "IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Mongolia",
  "publication": "IMF News, August 6, 2026",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/08/06/pr26274-mongolia-imf-executive-board-concludes-2026-article-iv-consultation",
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  "summary": "Washington, DC – August 6, 2026: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation with Mongolia and endorsed the staff appraisal without a meeting on a lapse-of-time basis.",
  "publishDate": "2026-08-06",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Overview and recent developments",
      "content": "- Executive Board concluded the Article IV consultation and endorsed the staff appraisal without a meeting on a lapse-of-time basis. Authorities consented to publication of the Staff Report.\n- Despite a sharp decline in coal prices, macroeconomic outcomes in 2025 were better than expected due to:\n  - strong recovery in agricultural output;\n  - solid mining production;\n  - higher copper exports and softer import demand that helped narrow the current account deficit.\n- Buoyant mining activity underpinned strong GDP growth through April 2026 of 7.8 percent y/y.\n- Inflation rose since March 2026 driven by surging meat and energy prices, reaching 12.0 percent y/y in June."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Outlook and projections",
      "content": "- Growth:\n  - Growth is projected to remain robust in 2026, supported by strong mining activity, but to moderate from the high 2025 level as agricultural base effects fade.\n  - Real GDP growth (percent change) from Table 1: 2023: 7.4; 2024: 5.1; 2025: 6.8; 2026: 5.8; 2027: 5.6; 2028: 5.0.\n- Inflation:\n  - Inflation is projected to remain elevated at around 10 percent by year-end, amid high food and fuel prices, before easing gradually thereafter.\n  - Consumer Prices (Avg; percent change) from Table 1: 2023: 6.2; 2024: 8.6; 2025: 8.8; 2026: 9.5; 2027: 8.3; 2028: 6.7.\n  - Consumer Prices (EoP; percent change) from Table 1: 2023: 7.5; 2024: 10.0; 2025: 9.0; 2026: 6.9; 2027: 6.6.\n- External sector:\n  - Current account balance (percent of GDP) from Table 1: 2023: 0.6; 2024: -10.4; 2025: -8.4; 2026: -4.5; 2027: -5.3; 2028: -7.0.\n  - Exports of goods (percent of GDP) from Table 1: 2023: 68.5; 2024: 62.0; 2025: 60.5; 2026: 67.3; 2027: 65.3.\n  - Imports of goods (percent of GDP) from Table 1: 2023: 46.1; 2024: 49.0; 2025: 44.7; 2026: 46.6; 2027: 44.0.\n- Commodity prices (from Table 1):\n  - Copper prices (US$ per ton): 2023: 8,491; 2024: 9,142; 2025: 9,947; 2026: 13,527; 2027: 13,889; 2028: 13,837; 2029: 13,805; 2030: 13,801; 2031: 13,814.\n  - Bituminous coal prices (US$ per ton): 2023: 131.4; 2024: 107.3; 2025: 66.5; 2026: 73.4; 2027: 79.2; 2028: 76.3; 2029: 76.4."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Executive Board assessment and risks",
      "content": "- Assessment highlights:\n  - Despite multiple shocks, Mongolia’s economy has remained resilient.\n  - External position in 2025 assessed to remain weaker than implied by fundamentals and desirable policy settings.\n  - Headline inflation has started rising again amid higher food and fuel prices and is expected to remain elevated throughout the year.\n- Downside risks (balance of risks tilted to the downside):\n  - Domestic: potential deterioration in external financing conditions due to fiscal slippages and higher debt, political pressures to reduce non-mining taxes and increase current spending (wages and pensions).\n  - External: heightened geopolitical tensions (including adverse spillovers from the Middle East conflict and Russia’s war in Ukraine), and uncertainty about prospects for coal exports to China and commodity prices."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Fiscal policy recommendations",
      "content": "- Priorities:\n  - Rebuild buffers and safeguard sustainability.\n  - Submission of a supplementary budget to Parliament is a priority to avoid end-year cash shortages as in 2025.\n  - Reconsider the recently approved tax package given its adverse impact on non‑mining revenues.\n  - Focus on tax policy and administrative reforms to strengthen non-mining revenue.\n  - Increase efficiency in current spending to create space for development spending and rebuilding buffers.\n- Public financial management and transparency:\n  - Strengthen public financial management and fiscal transparency, including through a well-defined MTFF, more realistic budget formulation, and stronger governance of mining funds.\n  - Avoid policy measures that undermine fiscal rules’ credibility, including selective exclusion of public investment projects.\n- Fuel price response:\n  - Fiscal measures in response to higher fuel prices should be temporary and well‑targeted, while preserving price signals.\n- Financing resilience:\n  - Reduce reliance on external financing to strengthen fiscal resilience."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Monetary policy, FX reserves, and exchange rate",
      "content": "- Monetary stance:\n  - Bank of Mongolia (BOM) should maintain a tight monetary policy stance and stand ready to tighten further if risks of unanchored inflation expectations and significant second-round effects emerge.\n  - Strengthen BOM operational and legal autonomy, forbid quasi‑fiscal activities, and address its weak balance sheet to enhance effectiveness and credibility.\n- FX reserves and exchange rate flexibility:\n  - Higher FX reserves and greater exchange rate flexibility would strengthen resilience to external shocks.\n  - While GIR have increased markedly, they remain below adequacy thresholds.\n  - BOM should continue opportunistic reserve accumulation when market conditions allow.\n  - BOM should gradually phase out its role as a structural provider of FX to the market and reduce its dominance in providing FX hedging instruments to banks by fostering development of the domestic FX derivatives market."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Financial sector and macroprudential framework",
      "content": "- Macroprudential and supervisory recommendations:\n  - Strengthen institutional separation between macroprudential and monetary policy, expand macroprudential toolkit, and enhance coordination with the FRC.\n  - Incorporate pension-backed loans into the DSTI framework to prevent excessive indebtedness among pensioners.\n  - Continue progress in risk-based supervision and reforms to credit information, insolvency, and resolution frameworks.\n- Banking sector changes:\n  - Proposed increase in bank shareholder limits, together with allowing international financial institutions to invest in multiple banks, is welcome and could facilitate bank shareholder diversification.\n- Financial indicators (selected from Table 1):\n  - Broad money growth (percent change): 2023: 10.6; 2024: 20.3; 2025: 17.5; 2026: 12.7; 2027: 12.4; 2028: 12.1.\n  - Credit growth (percent change): 2023: 22.0; 2024: 19.8; 2025: 17.0; 2026: 13.7; 2027: 12.8.\n  - Gross official reserves (in USD million): 2023: 4,922; 2024: 5,510; 2025: 7,005; 2026: 7,234; 2027: 7,230; 2028: 7,254; 2029: 7,264; 2030: 7,285.\n  - Net international reserves (NIR): 2023: 1,152; 2024: 1,768; 2025: 2,517."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Structural reform priorities",
      "content": "- Key priorities to achieve sustainable and inclusive growth:\n  - Improve the business environment to support investment and attract FDI.\n  - Strengthen governance and the rule of law.\n  - Move toward a more diversified and private sector-led growth model.\n- Legislative and governance actions recommended:\n  - Finalize and enact promptly the revised Foreign Investment Law, amendments to the SOE Law and the Mineral Law, and the draft Whistleblower Law."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key fiscal and debt metrics (selected from Table 1)",
      "content": "- General government accounts (percent of GDP):\n  - Primary balance (IMF definition): 2023: 4.3; 2024: 3.2; 2025: -0.3; 2026: -3.0; 2027: -4.2; 2028: -3.2.\n  - Total revenue and grants: 2023: 34.6; 2024: 38.9; 2025: 36.3; 2026: 31.8; 2027: 28.8.\n  - Primary expenditure and net lending: 2023: 36.2; 2024: 33.1; 2025: 32.2; 2026: 33.3; 2027: 32.0.\n  - Interest: 2023: 1.5; 2024: 1.7; 2025: 1.9; 2026: 2.2; 2027: 2.4; 2028: 3.0; 2029: 3.3.\n  - Overall balance (IMF definition): 2023: 1.3; 2024: -2.2; 2025: -5.2; 2026: -6.6; 2027: -5.9; 2028: -6.1.\n  - Non-mining primary balance (in percent of GDP): 2023: -5.7; 2024: -8.8; 2025: -5.6; 2026: -8.2; 2027: -10.6; 2028: -11.4; 2029: -10.1; 2030: -9.6; 2031: -9.2.\n- General government debt (percent of GDP):\n  - 2023: 46.7; 2024: 44.1; 2025: 45.1; 2026: 47.0; 2027: 50.5; 2028: 55.9; 2029: 59.1; 2030: 61.3; 2031: 63.7.\n  - Domestic: 2023: 3.1; 2024: 4.9; 2025: 6.3; 2026: 7.8; 2027: 9.3; 2028: 10.8.\n  - External: 2023: 43.4; 2024: 41.0; 2025: 41.9; 2026: 42.1; 2027: 44.3; 2028: 48.1; 2029: 50.2; 2030: 52.0; 2031: 52.8.\n- Gross financing needs: 2023: 4.7; 2024: 13.3; 2025: 13.1; 2026: 14.1; 2027: 16.5.\n\nInternational Monetary Fund press release, August 6, 2026.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- www.imf.org/Mongolia\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/08/06/pr26274-mongolia-imf-executive-board-concludes-2026-article-iv-consultation"
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    "Published: August 6, 2026",
    "Executive Board concluded the Article IV consultation and endorsed the staff appraisal without a meeting on a lapse-of-time basis. Authorities consented to publication of the Staff Report.",
    "Despite a sharp decline in coal prices, macroeconomic outcomes in 2025 were better than expected due to:",
    "Buoyant mining activity underpinned strong GDP growth through April 2026 of 7.8 percent y/y.",
    "Inflation rose since March 2026 driven by surging meat and energy prices, reaching 12.0 percent y/y in June.",
    "Growth:",
    "Inflation:",
    "External sector:",
    "Commodity prices (from Table 1):",
    "Assessment highlights:",
    "Downside risks (balance of risks tilted to the downside):",
    "Priorities:",
    "Public financial management and transparency:",
    "Fuel price response:",
    "Financing resilience:",
    "Monetary stance:",
    "FX reserves and exchange rate flexibility:",
    "Macroprudential and supervisory recommendations:",
    "Banking sector changes:",
    "Financial indicators (selected from Table 1):",
    "Key priorities to achieve sustainable and inclusive growth:",
    "Legislative and governance actions recommended:",
    "General government accounts (percent of GDP):",
    "General government debt (percent of GDP):",
    "Gross financing needs: 2023: 4.7; 2024: 13.3; 2025: 13.1; 2026: 14.1; 2027: 16.5.",
    "[IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)",
    "[Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[www.imf.org/Mongolia](http://www.imf.org/Mongolia)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
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