{
  "title": "IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Switzerland",
  "publication": "IMF News, September 1, 2026",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/09/01/pr26281-switzerland-imf-executive-board-concludes-2026-article-iv-consultation",
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  "summary": "The Swiss economy has demonstrated resilience amid heightened global uncertainty and global energy price shock, benefiting from strong policy frameworks and economic flexibility.",
  "publishDate": "2026-09-01",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Executive summary",
      "content": "- The Swiss economy has demonstrated resilience amid heightened global uncertainty and global energy price shock, benefiting from strong policy frameworks and economic flexibility.\n- The Executive Board completed the Article IV Consultation and endorsed the staff appraisal on a lapse of time basis on August 25, 2026.\n- The authorities consented to publication of the Staff Report prepared for this consultation."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Macroeconomic outlook and inflation",
      "content": "- 2025 growth (adjusted for sporting events): 1.5 percent (1.4 percent without adjustments).\n- 2026 growth (adjusted for sporting events) expected: 0.8 percent (1.1 percent without adjustments).\n- Growth projection: accelerate during 2027-28 before stabilizing at potential rate of 1.5 percent thereafter.\n- Inflation developments:\n  - 2025 headline inflation: 0.2 percent.\n  - June 2026 headline inflation: 0.5 percent.\n  - June 2026 core inflation: 0.3 percent.\n  - Inflation projected to pick up to 0.6 percent in 2026 and remain low at 0.7 percent over the medium term (within the SNB’s price stability range).\n- Current account surpluses: will remain large."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Risks to the outlook",
      "content": "- Risks mainly external and tilted to the downside.\n- Key risk factors listed:\n  - Elevated geopolitical tensions (Middle East situation fragile despite recent improvement).\n  - Rebound in energy prices.\n  - Additional US tariffs from ongoing investigations weighing on exports.\n  - Entrenched trade barriers and fragmentation disrupting multinational supply chains and undermining export-oriented growth model.\n- Upside scenario: lower energy prices and easing geopolitical tensions would bolster growth."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Executive Board assessment on policy stance",
      "content": "- Fiscal policy:\n  - The modest fiscal expansion in 2026 is appropriate given subdued growth and downside risks.\n  - Higher pension spending expected to more than offset additional revenues from OECD Pillar 2 implementation, resulting in a small general government deficit.\n  - Maintaining the debt brake's credibility amid rising long-term spending pressures will require addressing tradeoffs; debt brake is an important institutional strength.\n  - Recommendations: additional revenue mobilization and broader reforms to strengthen the efficiency and resilience of the tax system.\n- Monetary policy:\n  - Current monetary policy stance is appropriate; SNB should remain prepared to adjust policy as conditions evolve.\n  - The mildly accommodative stance is consistent with maintaining price stability given subdued inflation and well-anchored expectations.\n  - Guidance:\n    - SNB should look through temporary supply-driven price movements but stand ready to tighten if inflationary pressures become persistent.\n    - A severe disinflationary shock with safe-haven inflows and franc appreciation could warrant additional monetary easing, including negative policy rates if required.\n- Foreign exchange intervention (FXI):\n  - FXI can usefully complement monetary policy in exceptional circumstances, compliant with the Integrated Policy Framework (IPF).\n  - FXI should not substitute for necessary monetary policy adjustment and is most effective when used alongside other instruments."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Financial sector and macroprudential policy",
      "content": "- TBTF reforms:\n  - Authorities’ commitment to strengthening the Too-Big-To-Fail framework is welcome; passage and implementation should proceed.\n  - Proposed requirement for global systemically important banks to fully capitalize foreign subsidiaries with common equity tier-1 (CET1) capital would materially strengthen resolvability and should not be diluted.\n  - Introduction of the SNB’s Extended Liquidity Facility is welcome; establishment of a public liquidity backstop would further reinforce crisis-management framework.\n  - Continued efforts to strengthen FINMA’s resources, powers, and enforcement capabilities are important.\n- Additional resilience measures:\n  - Vigilance warranted on residential real estate vulnerabilities: elevated property valuations, compressed rental yields, and pockets of weak borrower affordability.\n  - Recommendation to further strengthen macroprudential framework, including formalizing institutional arrangements and adding borrower-based measures.\n  - Supervisors should monitor risks from nonbank financial institutions, including insurers’ derivative exposures, data gaps, evolving cross-border linkages, and potential spillovers through covered bond and other funding markets.\n  - Continue strengthening operational resilience (including cyber threats) and improve AML/CFT risk-based supervision."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Structural reforms and fiscal sustainability",
      "content": "- Structural reforms essential to sustain growth and preserve fiscal sustainability amid demographic change.\n- Recommended measures:\n  - Advance comprehensive pension and health care reforms to address long-term spending pressures and strengthen sustainability of social insurance systems.\n  - Encourage longer working lives, improve labor force participation, enhance workforce skills, and maintain openness to qualified migration.\n  - Reduce regulatory burdens, strengthen competition, and improve environment for investment and innovation—especially for small and medium-sized enterprises and in services.\n  - Continue progress with energy transition, strengthen energy security, and use market-based incentives to reduce emissions."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key statistics (selected values from Table 1)",
      "content": "- Real GDP (Percent Change) — staff projections:\n  - 2025: 1.1\n  - 2026: 1.2\n  - 2027: 1.9\n  - 2028: 1.8\n- Real GDP (adj. for sporting events):\n  - 2021: 5.9\n  - 2022: 3.5\n  - 2023: 1.5\n  - 2024: 0.8\n  - 2025: 1.7\n- Total nominal GDP (billions of Swiss francs):\n  - 2021: 767.7\n  - 2022: 819.6\n  - 2023: 834.4\n  - 2024: 854.2\n  - 2025: 867.8\n  - 2026: 882.8\n  - 2027: 898.5\n  - 2028: 922.2\n  - 2029: 939.6\n  - 2030: 963.9\n  - 2031: 982.9\n- Savings and investment (Percent of GDP):\n  - Gross national saving 2021–2028 (selected): 35.5; 34.4; 35.7; 35.8; 36.2; 36.4; 36.5; 36.0\n  - Gross domestic investment 2021–2024 (selected): 28.0; 26.6; 28.6; 26.8\n  - Current account balance (selected years): 2021: 7.4; 2022: 9.0; 2023: 5.8; 2024: 8.9; 2025: 6.4; 2026: 6.8; 2027: 7.1; 2028: 7.0\n- General Government Finances (Percent of GDP):\n  - Revenue 2021–2031 (selected): 32.4; 31.6; 31.4; 31.9; 32.9; 33.4; 33.6; 33.7; 33.9; 34.0; 34.1\n  - Expenditure 2021–2026 (selected): 33.5; 30.4; 31.0; 31.5; 32.6; 33.8\n  - Balance (2021): -1.1\n  - Cyclically adjusted balance (2021): -1.0\n  - Gross debt 3/ (selected years): 42.7; 38.6; 39.8; 40.3; 39.4; 39.1; 38.5; 38.3; 37.6; 37.3\n- Monetary and credit (Percent Change, Average):\n  - Broad money (M3) (selected): 4.5; 2.6\n  - Domestic credit, non-financial (selected): 3.8\n  - 3-month Treasury bill interest rate (%): -0.8\n- Exchange rates and competitiveness:\n  - Nominal effective rate (avg., 2000=100) (selected): 129.9; 135.8; 144.4; 149.0; 154.5\n  - Real effective rate (avg., 2000=100) 4/ (selected): 105.8; 106.1; 109.7; 111.2; 112.7\n\nSource: IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Switzerland (Press Release No. 26/281), September 1, 2026.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg\n- The Executive Board\n- Switzerland and the IMF\n- IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- www.imf.org/switzerland\n- http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/09/01/pr26281-switzerland-imf-executive-board-concludes-2026-article-iv-consultation"
    }
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    "Published: September 1, 2026",
    "The Swiss economy has demonstrated resilience amid heightened global uncertainty and global energy price shock, benefiting from strong policy frameworks and economic flexibility.",
    "The Executive Board completed the Article IV Consultation and endorsed the staff appraisal on a lapse of time basis on August 25, 2026.",
    "The authorities consented to publication of the Staff Report prepared for this consultation.",
    "2025 growth (adjusted for sporting events): 1.5 percent (1.4 percent without adjustments).",
    "2026 growth (adjusted for sporting events) expected: 0.8 percent (1.1 percent without adjustments).",
    "Growth projection: accelerate during 2027-28 before stabilizing at potential rate of 1.5 percent thereafter.",
    "Inflation developments:",
    "Current account surpluses: will remain large.",
    "Risks mainly external and tilted to the downside.",
    "Key risk factors listed:",
    "Upside scenario: lower energy prices and easing geopolitical tensions would bolster growth.",
    "Fiscal policy:",
    "Monetary policy:",
    "Foreign exchange intervention (FXI):",
    "TBTF reforms:",
    "Additional resilience measures:",
    "Structural reforms essential to sustain growth and preserve fiscal sustainability amid demographic change.",
    "Recommended measures:",
    "Real GDP (Percent Change) — staff projections:",
    "Real GDP (adj. for sporting events):",
    "Total nominal GDP (billions of Swiss francs):",
    "Savings and investment (Percent of GDP):",
    "General Government Finances (Percent of GDP):",
    "Monetary and credit (Percent Change, Average):",
    "Exchange rates and competitiveness:",
    "[https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg](https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg)",
    "[The Executive Board](https://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/memdir/eds.aspx)",
    "[Switzerland and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/CHE/index.htm)",
    "[IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)",
    "[Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[www.imf.org/switzerland](https://www.imf.org/en/countries/che)",
    "[http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm](http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
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