## IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Switzerland

_IMF News, September 1, 2026_

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## Bibliographic details
- Published: September 1, 2026

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### Executive summary
- The Swiss economy has demonstrated resilience amid heightened global uncertainty and global energy price shock, benefiting from strong policy frameworks and economic flexibility.
- The Executive Board completed the Article IV Consultation and endorsed the staff appraisal on a lapse of time basis on August 25, 2026.
- The authorities consented to publication of the Staff Report prepared for this consultation.

### Macroeconomic outlook and inflation
- 2025 growth (adjusted for sporting events): 1.5 percent (1.4 percent without adjustments).
- 2026 growth (adjusted for sporting events) expected: 0.8 percent (1.1 percent without adjustments).
- Growth projection: accelerate during 2027-28 before stabilizing at potential rate of 1.5 percent thereafter.
- Inflation developments:
  - 2025 headline inflation: 0.2 percent.
  - June 2026 headline inflation: 0.5 percent.
  - June 2026 core inflation: 0.3 percent.
  - Inflation projected to pick up to 0.6 percent in 2026 and remain low at 0.7 percent over the medium term (within the SNB’s price stability range).
- Current account surpluses: will remain large.

### Risks to the outlook
- Risks mainly external and tilted to the downside.
- Key risk factors listed:
  - Elevated geopolitical tensions (Middle East situation fragile despite recent improvement).
  - Rebound in energy prices.
  - Additional US tariffs from ongoing investigations weighing on exports.
  - Entrenched trade barriers and fragmentation disrupting multinational supply chains and undermining export-oriented growth model.
- Upside scenario: lower energy prices and easing geopolitical tensions would bolster growth.

### Executive Board assessment on policy stance
- Fiscal policy:
  - The modest fiscal expansion in 2026 is appropriate given subdued growth and downside risks.
  - Higher pension spending expected to more than offset additional revenues from OECD Pillar 2 implementation, resulting in a small general government deficit.
  - Maintaining the debt brake's credibility amid rising long-term spending pressures will require addressing tradeoffs; debt brake is an important institutional strength.
  - Recommendations: additional revenue mobilization and broader reforms to strengthen the efficiency and resilience of the tax system.
- Monetary policy:
  - Current monetary policy stance is appropriate; SNB should remain prepared to adjust policy as conditions evolve.
  - The mildly accommodative stance is consistent with maintaining price stability given subdued inflation and well-anchored expectations.
  - Guidance:
    - SNB should look through temporary supply-driven price movements but stand ready to tighten if inflationary pressures become persistent.
    - A severe disinflationary shock with safe-haven inflows and franc appreciation could warrant additional monetary easing, including negative policy rates if required.
- Foreign exchange intervention (FXI):
  - FXI can usefully complement monetary policy in exceptional circumstances, compliant with the Integrated Policy Framework (IPF).
  - FXI should not substitute for necessary monetary policy adjustment and is most effective when used alongside other instruments.

### Financial sector and macroprudential policy
- TBTF reforms:
  - Authorities’ commitment to strengthening the Too-Big-To-Fail framework is welcome; passage and implementation should proceed.
  - Proposed requirement for global systemically important banks to fully capitalize foreign subsidiaries with common equity tier-1 (CET1) capital would materially strengthen resolvability and should not be diluted.
  - Introduction of the SNB’s Extended Liquidity Facility is welcome; establishment of a public liquidity backstop would further reinforce crisis-management framework.
  - Continued efforts to strengthen FINMA’s resources, powers, and enforcement capabilities are important.
- Additional resilience measures:
  - Vigilance warranted on residential real estate vulnerabilities: elevated property valuations, compressed rental yields, and pockets of weak borrower affordability.
  - Recommendation to further strengthen macroprudential framework, including formalizing institutional arrangements and adding borrower-based measures.
  - Supervisors should monitor risks from nonbank financial institutions, including insurers’ derivative exposures, data gaps, evolving cross-border linkages, and potential spillovers through covered bond and other funding markets.
  - Continue strengthening operational resilience (including cyber threats) and improve AML/CFT risk-based supervision.

### Structural reforms and fiscal sustainability
- Structural reforms essential to sustain growth and preserve fiscal sustainability amid demographic change.
- Recommended measures:
  - Advance comprehensive pension and health care reforms to address long-term spending pressures and strengthen sustainability of social insurance systems.
  - Encourage longer working lives, improve labor force participation, enhance workforce skills, and maintain openness to qualified migration.
  - Reduce regulatory burdens, strengthen competition, and improve environment for investment and innovation—especially for small and medium-sized enterprises and in services.
  - Continue progress with energy transition, strengthen energy security, and use market-based incentives to reduce emissions.

### Key statistics (selected values from Table 1)
- Real GDP (Percent Change) — staff projections:
  - 2025: 1.1
  - 2026: 1.2
  - 2027: 1.9
  - 2028: 1.8
- Real GDP (adj. for sporting events):
  - 2021: 5.9
  - 2022: 3.5
  - 2023: 1.5
  - 2024: 0.8
  - 2025: 1.7
- Total nominal GDP (billions of Swiss francs):
  - 2021: 767.7
  - 2022: 819.6
  - 2023: 834.4
  - 2024: 854.2
  - 2025: 867.8
  - 2026: 882.8
  - 2027: 898.5
  - 2028: 922.2
  - 2029: 939.6
  - 2030: 963.9
  - 2031: 982.9
- Savings and investment (Percent of GDP):
  - Gross national saving 2021–2028 (selected): 35.5; 34.4; 35.7; 35.8; 36.2; 36.4; 36.5; 36.0
  - Gross domestic investment 2021–2024 (selected): 28.0; 26.6; 28.6; 26.8
  - Current account balance (selected years): 2021: 7.4; 2022: 9.0; 2023: 5.8; 2024: 8.9; 2025: 6.4; 2026: 6.8; 2027: 7.1; 2028: 7.0
- General Government Finances (Percent of GDP):
  - Revenue 2021–2031 (selected): 32.4; 31.6; 31.4; 31.9; 32.9; 33.4; 33.6; 33.7; 33.9; 34.0; 34.1
  - Expenditure 2021–2026 (selected): 33.5; 30.4; 31.0; 31.5; 32.6; 33.8
  - Balance (2021): -1.1
  - Cyclically adjusted balance (2021): -1.0
  - Gross debt 3/ (selected years): 42.7; 38.6; 39.8; 40.3; 39.4; 39.1; 38.5; 38.3; 37.6; 37.3
- Monetary and credit (Percent Change, Average):
  - Broad money (M3) (selected): 4.5; 2.6
  - Domestic credit, non-financial (selected): 3.8
  - 3-month Treasury bill interest rate (%): -0.8
- Exchange rates and competitiveness:
  - Nominal effective rate (avg., 2000=100) (selected): 129.9; 135.8; 144.4; 149.0; 154.5
  - Real effective rate (avg., 2000=100) 4/ (selected): 105.8; 106.1; 109.7; 111.2; 112.7

*Source: IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Switzerland (Press Release No. 26/281), September 1, 2026.*

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## References

- [https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg](https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg)
- [The Executive Board](https://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/memdir/eds.aspx)
- [Switzerland and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/CHE/index.htm)
- [IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)
- [Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)
- [PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)
- [www.imf.org/switzerland](https://www.imf.org/en/countries/che)
- [http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm](http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm)
- [https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/09/01/pr26281-switzerland-imf-executive-board-concludes-2026-article-iv-consultation_