{
  "title": "IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Samoa",
  "publication": "IMF News, September 16, 2026",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/09/16/pr26291-samoa-imf-concludes-2026-aiv-consultation",
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  "summary": "The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the 2026 Article IV Consultation with Samoa. The authorities have consented to the publication of the Staff Report prepared for this consultation.",
  "publishDate": "2026-09-16",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Main findings and recent developments",
      "content": "- Strong policy buffers and prudent macroeconomic management have preserved stability despite a challenging external environment.\n- Key resilience factors: Low public debt, ample international reserves, and sound policies.\n- Headwinds: higher global energy prices, climate-related shocks, infrastructure gaps, a narrow production base, and outward migration.\n- Post-pandemic trajectory: Following a strong post-pandemic recovery, growth has slowed sharply due to weaker domestic demand, subdued agricultural and commercial activity, and higher fuel and shipping costs.\n- Inflation dynamics: Inflation remained contained for much of the year, although rising global fuel prices have recently increased price pressures.\n- External position: Strong tourism and remittance inflows have continued to support the external position.\n- Fiscal stance: Fiscal policy remained expansionary despite fiscal surpluses.\n- Vulnerabilities: High exposure to natural disasters, limited economic diversification, and persistent structural constraints."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Outlook and risks",
      "content": "- Near-term outlook: Growth is expected to recover gradually, supported by an expansionary fiscal stance, although the near-term outlook remains challenging.\n- Price and external pressures: Elevated oil prices and global uncertainty are expected to weigh on private consumption and investment; inflation is projected to rise as higher fuel and food costs pass through to domestic prices; the external position is expected to weaken as import costs increase, although reserves should remain ample.\n- Medium-term constraints: Growth projected to remain moderate, constrained by weak productivity, infrastructure gaps, a narrow production base, and labor shortages from continued outward migration.\n- Downside risks: escalating geopolitical tensions, commodity price volatility, rising trade protectionism, weaker tourism demand, more frequent climate-related shocks, persistent inflation, and continued migration."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Executive Board assessment and policy recommendations",
      "content": "- General assessment:\n  - Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal and commended the authorities’ prudent macroeconomic policies.\n  - Directors noted a challenging near‑term outlook and downside risks—commodity price volatility, climate shocks, capacity constraints, and outward migration.\n  - Emphasis on preserving macroeconomic stability and advancing structural reforms to foster diversified and resilient growth.\n- Fiscal policy:\n  - Support for using available fiscal space to cushion the effects of the energy price shock, while safeguarding medium‑term fiscal sustainability.\n  - Assistance should be transparent, temporary and targeted to vulnerable households and productive investment.\n  - Spending should be carefully paced in line with implementation capacity.\n  - Strengthen project appraisal, execution, and oversight to ensure higher spending translates into durable economic benefits.\n  - Continue improvements in the fiscal framework, public financial management, and investment planning and execution to strengthen public spending efficiency and budget credibility.\n- Monetary policy and reserves:\n  - Encourage the Central Bank of Samoa to maintain an appropriately tight monetary stance and to stand ready to respond to inflationary pressures.\n  - Need to step up absorption of excess liquidity and strengthen policy transmission.\n  - Welcome ongoing efforts to strengthen liquidity management and modernize the monetary policy operational framework.\n  - Safeguarding the independence of the Central Bank of Samoa is critical; encourage amendments to the Central Bank of Samoa Act to reinforce independence, governance, and accountability.\n- Financial sector and integrity:\n  - Recommended continued strengthening of financial sector oversight, including close monitoring of rapid lending by public financial institutions and emerging asset‑quality risks.\n  - Highlighted the importance of enhancing financial integrity and safeguarding correspondent banking relationships.\n  - Welcomed Samoa’s removal from the EU’s list of non‑cooperative jurisdictions for tax purposes and encouraged further strengthening AML/CFT frameworks.\n- Structural reforms:\n  - Sustained progress in addressing structural constraints essential to lift medium‑term growth.\n  - Encourage reforms to: improve the business environment and access to finance, strengthen human capital, ease labor and infrastructure bottlenecks, and support economic diversification.\n  - Welcome authorities’ efforts to enhance climate resilience.\n  - Strengthening data quality is important.\n- Consultations:\n  - Next Article IV consultation with Samoa is expected to be held on the standard 12‑month cycle."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Selected economic and financial indicators (highlights from Table 1)",
      "content": "- Output and inflation:\n  - Real GDP (growth): 4.8 (2023/24 Est.), 4.2 (2024/25), 0.4 (2025/26), 2.0 (2026/27), 2.5 (2027/28)\n  - Nominal GDP (growth): 13.6 (2023/24), 10.6 (2024/25), 3.5 (2025/26), 7.0 (2026/27), 5.6 (2027/28), 5.5 (2028/29)\n  - Consumer price index (end of period): 0.8 (2023/24), 1.5 (2024/25), 5.8 (2025/26), 3.0 (2026/27)\n  - Consumer price index (period average): 3.6 (2023/24), 1.8 (2024/25), 1.4 (2025/26), 4.5 (2026/27), 3.1 (2027/28)\n- Central government finances (percent of GDP):\n  - Revenue and grants: 35.6 (2023/24), 31.1 (2024/25), 27.0 (2025/26), 31.2 (2026/27), 30.7 (2027/28), 29.6 (2028/29)\n  - Of which: Tax revenue: 24.2 (2023/24), 23.8 (2024/25), 21.8 (2025/26), 21.5 (2026/27), 22.9 (2027/28)\n  - Of which: Grants: 8.3 (2023/24), 5.2 (2024/25), 6.9 (2025/26), 5.0 (2026/27), 4.0 (2027/28)\n  - Expenditure: 26.3 (2023/24), 26.4 (2024/25), 32.3 (2025/26), 32.1 (2026/27), 31.6 (2027/28), 31.0 (2028/29), 30.5 (2029/30)\n  - Of which: Expense: 24.6 (2023/24), 23.2 (2024/25), 22.8 (2025/26), 27.8 (2026/27), 27.6 (2027/28), 27.1 (2028/29), 26.5 (2029/30), 26.0 (2030/31)\n  - Overall balance: 9.3 (2023/24), 4.7 (2024/25), 0.7 (2025/26), -1.1 (2026/27), -1.4 (2027/28), -1.9 (2028/29), -0.9 (2029/30)\n  - Primary balance: 9.7 (2023/24), 1.1 (2024/25), -0.8 (2025/26), -1.6 (2026/27), -0.6 (2027/28)\n  - Primary balance excluding grants: -0.2 (2023/24), -7.8 (2024/25), -6.1 (2025/26), -5.6 (2026/27), -5.1 (2027/28), -4.6 (2028/29)\n  - Public debt: 25.3 (2023/24), 21.2 (2024/25), 18.1 (2025/26), 18.2 (2026/27), 18.8 (2027/28), 19.7 (2028/29), 20.2 (2029/30)\n- Money and credit aggregates:\n  - Broad money (M2): 7.7 (2023/24), 5.4 (2024/25), 6.2 (2025/26), 6.5 (2026/27)\n  - Share of commercial banks in private sector credit (in percent): 55.4 (2023/24), 54.5 (2024/25), 54.1 (2025/26), 53.8 (2026/27), 53.4 (2027/28), 53.1 (2028/29), 52.7 (2029/30), 52.4 (2030/31)\n- Balance of payments:\n  - Current account balance: 4.4 (2023/24), 5.7 (2024/25), -2.9 (2025/26), -2.2 (2026/27), -2.4 (2027/28), -2.3 (2028/29)\n  - Merchandise exports, f.o.b.: 2.9 (2023/24), 3.3 (2024/25), 3.4 (2025/26)\n  - Merchandise imports, f.o.b.: 37.5 (2023/24), 34.4 (2024/25), 34.0 (2025/26), 37.6 (2026/27), 37.7 (2027/28), 37.8 (2028/29)\n  - Services (net): 16.1 (2023/24), 15.8 (2024/25), 14.1 (2025/26), 14.9 (2026/27), 15.0 (2027/28), 15.1 (2028/29), 15.4 (2029/30)\n  - Of which: Tourism receipts: 19.1 (2023/24), 18.0 (2024/25), 17.7 (2025/26), 18.5 (2026/27), 18.9 (2027/28), 19.3 (2028/29)\n  - Income (net): -1.3 (2023/24), 0.0 (2024/25), -3.0 (2025/26), -3.1 (2026/27), -3.3 (2027/28)\n  - Current transfers (net): 23.9 (2023/24), 21.1 (2024/25), 20.3 (2025/26), 20.1 (2026/27), 20.0 (2027/28)\n- External reserves and debt:\n  - Gross official reserves (million U.S. dollars): 494.3 (2023/24), 565.2 (2024/25), 653.2 (2025/26), 647.4 (2026/27), 654.3 (2027/28), 657.4 (2028/29), 661.9 (2029/30), 666.3 (2030/31)\n  - Reserves (in months of next year's imports): 10.7 (2023/24), 11.6 (2024/25), 11.3 (2025/26), 10.8 (2026/27), 10.2 (2027/28), 8.8 (2028/29)\n  - External debt (in percent of GDP): 23.5 (2023/24), 19.8 (2024/25), 16.7 (2025/26), 17.0 (2026/27), 18.7 (2027/28), 19.4 (2028/29)\n- Exchange rates:\n  - Market rate (tala/U.S. dollar, period average): 2.76 (2023/24), 2.78 (2024/25), 2.75 (2025/26), …\n  - Real effective exchange rate: 1.2 (12-month percent change) 2/\n- Memorandum items:\n  - Nominal GDP (million tala): 3,240 (2023/24), 3,585 (2024/25), 3,711 (2025/26), 3,970 (2026/27), 4,194 (2027/28), 4,426 (2028/29), 4,670 (2029/30), 4,929 (2030/31)\n  - GDP per capita (U.S. dollars): 5,581 (2023/24), 6,075 (2024/25), 6,330 (2025/26), 6,614 (2026/27), 6,892 (2027/28), 7,236 (2028/29), 7,545 (2029/30), 7,866 (2030/31)\n\nSource: IMF Communications Department, September 16, 2026.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- Samoa and the IMF\n- IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- www.imf.org/Samoa\n- http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/09/16/pr26291-samoa-imf-concludes-2026-aiv-consultation"
    }
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    "Published: September 16, 2026",
    "Strong policy buffers and prudent macroeconomic management have preserved stability despite a challenging external environment.",
    "Key resilience factors: Low public debt, ample international reserves, and sound policies.",
    "Headwinds: higher global energy prices, climate-related shocks, infrastructure gaps, a narrow production base, and outward migration.",
    "Post-pandemic trajectory: Following a strong post-pandemic recovery, growth has slowed sharply due to weaker domestic demand, subdued agricultural and commercial activity, and higher fuel and shipping costs.",
    "Inflation dynamics: Inflation remained contained for much of the year, although rising global fuel prices have recently increased price pressures.",
    "External position: Strong tourism and remittance inflows have continued to support the external position.",
    "Fiscal stance: Fiscal policy remained expansionary despite fiscal surpluses.",
    "Vulnerabilities: High exposure to natural disasters, limited economic diversification, and persistent structural constraints.",
    "Near-term outlook: Growth is expected to recover gradually, supported by an expansionary fiscal stance, although the near-term outlook remains challenging.",
    "Price and external pressures: Elevated oil prices and global uncertainty are expected to weigh on private consumption and investment; inflation is projected to rise as higher fuel and food costs pass through to domestic prices; the external position is expected to weaken as import costs increase, although reserves should remain ample.",
    "Medium-term constraints: Growth projected to remain moderate, constrained by weak productivity, infrastructure gaps, a narrow production base, and labor shortages from continued outward migration.",
    "Downside risks: escalating geopolitical tensions, commodity price volatility, rising trade protectionism, weaker tourism demand, more frequent climate-related shocks, persistent inflation, and continued migration.",
    "General assessment:",
    "Fiscal policy:",
    "Monetary policy and reserves:",
    "Financial sector and integrity:",
    "Structural reforms:",
    "Consultations:",
    "Output and inflation:",
    "Central government finances (percent of GDP):",
    "Money and credit aggregates:",
    "Balance of payments:",
    "External reserves and debt:",
    "Exchange rates:",
    "Memorandum items:",
    "[Samoa and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/WSM/index.htm)",
    "[IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)",
    "[Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[www.imf.org/Samoa](http://www.imf.org/Samoa)",
    "[http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm](http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
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