{
  "title": "IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Algeria",
  "publication": "IMF News, September 21, 2026",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/09/21/pr26290-algeria-imf-concludes-2026-aiv-consultation",
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  "summary": "Algeria’s reform program has supported diversification and robust growth, although large fiscal deficits have depleted fiscal buffers and external buffers have eroded.",
  "publishDate": "2026-09-21",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Main findings",
      "content": "- Algeria’s reform program has supported diversification and robust growth, although large fiscal deficits have depleted fiscal buffers and external buffers have eroded.\n- Robust growth in 2025 was accompanied by higher inflation and large fiscal and current account deficits.\n- Real GDP growth is estimated at 3.9 percent in 2025 (from 3.7 percent in 2024) supported by strong investment.\n- Headline inflation rose from -2.0 percent in September 2025 to 5.2 percent in April 2026, as food-price deflation ended and jewelry prices increased sharply with higher gold prices.\n- Fiscal deficit narrowed in 2025, supported by large one-off dividend payments from SOEs and the Bank of Algeria, but remained very large; fiscal buffers are depleted and public debt and reliance on central-bank financing increased.\n- Current account deficit widened sharply as imports surged and hydrocarbon exports declined, leading to large reserve losses.\n- Monetary conditions eased alongside increased central bank financing of the government and the parallel exchange rate premium widened further.\n- Near-term prospects: higher hydrocarbon revenue improves the near-term outlook and provides an opportunity to rebuild buffers; GDP growth projected at 3.8 percent in 2026 with temporary increase in inflation.\n- Medium-term risks: continued large fiscal deficits would raise public debt and persistent current-account deficits would further reduce reserves."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Executive Board assessment and policy recommendations",
      "content": "- Directors endorsed staff’s appraisal and welcomed robust growth and diversification efforts supported by a public investment–led strategy.\n- Fiscal policy\n  - Call for credible and gradual fiscal consolidation given significant fiscal sustainability risks from large deficits.\n  - Use current hydrocarbon windfall to rebuild fiscal buffers.\n  - Strengthen nonhydrocarbon revenue mobilization.\n  - Improve public investment efficiency and rationalize expenditure, including gradual energy subsidy reform with targeted support for vulnerable households.\n  - Continue progress on public financial management and fiscal risk management anchored in a rules-based framework.\n- Monetary and exchange rate policy\n  - Tighten monetary policy if broader inflationary pressures intensify.\n  - Enhance the monetary policy framework by establishing low inflation as a clear nominal anchor and improving monetary policy transmission.\n  - Reinforce Bank of Algeria’s operational independence and limit monetary financing to exceptional circumstances.\n  - Increase exchange rate flexibility to strengthen external shock absorption and reduce the parallel market exchange rate premium.\n- Financial sector and governance\n  - Continue reforms to contain risks from high NPLs and sovereign–SOE–bank linkages.\n  - Strengthen supervision, crisis and liquidity management, and public bank governance.\n  - Continue effective implementation of the strengthened AML/CFT framework after removal from the FATF list of jurisdictions under increased monitoring.\n  - Address outstanding FSAP recommendations.\n- Structural reforms for diversification and private sector development\n  - Deepen reforms to improve business climate, level playing field between SOEs and private sector, reduce regulatory barriers and informality, and strengthen governance and transparency.\n  - Build climate resilience and deepen trade and energy linkages with Europe and Africa.\n  - Improve data coverage, timeliness, and quality.\n- Engagement\n  - Strong engagement through Fund capacity development and technical assistance remains important.\n- Timing\n  - The next Article IV consultation is expected on the standard 12-month cycle."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key downside and upside scenarios",
      "content": "- Downside risks\n  - Sharp decline in hydrocarbon prices.\n  - Continued large fiscal deficits that could jeopardize debt sustainability and intensify sovereign–bank linkages.\n  - Continued reliance on monetary financing, undermining price stability and policy credibility.\n- Upside potential\n  - Stronger fiscal consolidation, faster diversification, and continued structural reforms could improve business climate, attract private investment, and strengthen medium-term growth and resilience."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Selected economic and financial indicators (highlights, 2023–31)",
      "content": "- Output and prices (annual percentage change)\n  - Real GDP: 2023 = 4.1; 2024 = 3.7; 2025 = 3.9; 2026 = 3.8; 2027 = 3.1; 2028 = 3.0; 2029 = 2.9\n  - Hydrocarbon sector: 2023 = 3.6; 2024 = -1.3; 2025 = 1.3; 2026 = 2.7; 2027 = -0.8; 2028 = -0.1; 2029 = 3.4; 2030 = 1.2\n  - Nonhydrocarbon sector: 2023 = 4.2; 2024 = 4.3; 2025 = 4.0; 2026 = 3.3\n  - Consumer price index (period average): 2023 = 9.3; 2024 = 1.4; 2025 = 5.5; 2026 = 3.5\n- Money and credit (annual percentage change unless otherwise indicated)\n  - Net foreign assets: 2023 = 8.9; 2024 = 19.4; 2025 = -14.5; 2026 = -6.2; 2027 = -3.2; 2028 = -8.6; 2029 = -7.2; 2030 = -5.9; 2031 = -5.8\n  - Credit to the economy: 2023 = 6.0; 2024 = 5.9; 2025 = 7.8; 2026 = 9.6; 2027 = 6.7; 2028 = 6.6; 2029 = 6.5; 2030 = 6.3\n  - Money and quasi-money: 2023 = 9.0; 2024 = 6.9; 2025 = 11.5; 2026 = 9.5; 2027 = 9.4; 2028 = 8.8\n- Central government finances (in percent of GDP)\n  - Revenue: 2023 = 31.9; 2024 = 23.8; 2025 = 26.3; 2026 = 25.4; 2027 = 23.9; 2028 = 22.8; 2029 = 23.3; 2030 = 23.4; 2031 = 23.4\n  - Expenditure (incl. net lending): 2023 = 37.4; 2024 = 37.8; 2025 = 36.8; 2026 = 35.0; 2027 = 34.1; 2028 = 32.8; 2029 = 32.3; 2030 = 32.2; 2031 = 32.1\n  - Overall budget balance: 2023 = -5.5; 2024 = -14.0; 2025 = -10.5; 2026 = -9.6; 2027 = -10.2; 2028 = -10.0; 2029 = -9.0; 2030 = -8.7\n  - Central bank financing (flow): 2023 = -0.7; 2024 = -1.1; 2025 = -1.4; 2026 = -0.4; 2027 = 0.0\n  - Gross government debt (excluding guarantees): 2023 = 47.7; 2024 = 48.1; 2025 = 52.1; 2026 = 53.2; 2027 = 60.4; 2028 = 66.4; 2029 = 71.2; 2030 = 75.4; 2031 = 79.0\n- External sector\n  - Current account balance (percent of GDP): 2023 = -8.9; 2024 = -1.9; 2025 = -2.5; 2026 = -3.1; 2027 = -2.6; 2028 = -2.2; 2029 = -2.0\n  - Exports, f.o.b. (percent of GDP): 2023 = 22.4; 2024 = 18.1; 2025 = 16.6; 2026 = 16.4; 2027 = 17.0\n  - Imports, f.o.b. (percent of GDP): 2023 = 17.3; 2024 = 21.9; 2025 = 18.5\n  - Gross official reserves (US$ billions): 2023 = 70.6; 2024 = 68.9; 2025 = 51.0; 2026 = 46.5; 2027 = 41.0; 2028 = 27.8; 2029 = 23.5; 2030 = 19.8\n  - Reserves in months of next year's imports of goods and services: 2023 = 15.6; 2024 = 11.1; 2025 = 8.6; 2026 = 8.1; 2027 = 7.2; 2028 = 5.8; 2029 = 4.8\n  - Gross external debt (percent of GDP): 2023 = 1.1; 2024 = 1.0; 2025 = 0.8; 2026 = 0.7; 2027 = 0.6; 2028 = 0.5\n- Memorandum items\n  - GDP (in billions of dinars at current prices): 2023 = 33,679; 2024 = 36,104; 2025 = 37,389; 2026 = 43,024; 2027 = 45,041; 2028 = 47,662; 2029 = 50,446; 2030 = 53,383; 2031 = 56,830\n  - NHGDP (in billions of dinars at current prices): 2023 = 27,243; 2024 = 29,971; 2025 = 31,965; 2026 = 35,407; 2027 = 38,351; 2028 = 40,943; 2029 = 43,626; 2030 = 46,575; 2031 = 49,728\n  - GDP per capita (in US$): 2023 = 5,353; 2024 = 5,749; 2025 = 5,997; 2026 = 6,733; 2027 = 6,979; 2028 = 6,879; 2029 = 6,846; 2030 = 6,831; 2031 = 6,860\n  - Exchange rate (DA per US$): 2023 = 135.8; 2024 = 134.1\n  - Crude oil export unit value (US$/bbl): 2023 = 83.9; 2024 = 82.0; 2025 = 69.4; 2026 = 92.6; 2027 = 82.4; 2028 = 77.7; 2029 = 75.2; 2030 = 73.3; 2031 = 71.8\n\nPress Release No. 26/290, September 21, 2026.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- Algeria and the IMF\n- IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/09/21/pr26290-algeria-imf-concludes-2026-aiv-consultation"
    }
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    "Published: September 21, 2026",
    "Algeria’s reform program has supported diversification and robust growth, although large fiscal deficits have depleted fiscal buffers and external buffers have eroded.",
    "Robust growth in 2025 was accompanied by higher inflation and large fiscal and current account deficits.",
    "Real GDP growth is estimated at 3.9 percent in 2025 (from 3.7 percent in 2024) supported by strong investment.",
    "Headline inflation rose from -2.0 percent in September 2025 to 5.2 percent in April 2026, as food-price deflation ended and jewelry prices increased sharply with higher gold prices.",
    "Fiscal deficit narrowed in 2025, supported by large one-off dividend payments from SOEs and the Bank of Algeria, but remained very large; fiscal buffers are depleted and public debt and reliance on central-bank financing increased.",
    "Current account deficit widened sharply as imports surged and hydrocarbon exports declined, leading to large reserve losses.",
    "Monetary conditions eased alongside increased central bank financing of the government and the parallel exchange rate premium widened further.",
    "Near-term prospects: higher hydrocarbon revenue improves the near-term outlook and provides an opportunity to rebuild buffers; GDP growth projected at 3.8 percent in 2026 with temporary increase in inflation.",
    "Medium-term risks: continued large fiscal deficits would raise public debt and persistent current-account deficits would further reduce reserves.",
    "Directors endorsed staff’s appraisal and welcomed robust growth and diversification efforts supported by a public investment–led strategy.",
    "Fiscal policy",
    "Monetary and exchange rate policy",
    "Financial sector and governance",
    "Structural reforms for diversification and private sector development",
    "Engagement",
    "Timing",
    "Downside risks",
    "Upside potential",
    "Output and prices (annual percentage change)",
    "Money and credit (annual percentage change unless otherwise indicated)",
    "Central government finances (in percent of GDP)",
    "External sector",
    "Memorandum items",
    "[Algeria and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/DZA/index.htm)",
    "[IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)",
    "[Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm](http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
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