{
  "title": "IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Cambodia",
  "publication": "IMF News, September 28, 2026",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/09/28/pr26307-cambodia-imf-executive-board-concludes-2026-article-iv-consultation",
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  "summary": "Growth is projected to slow to 3.0 percent in 2026, as higher energy costs, weaker tourism and remittances, slowing garment exports, subdued domestic demand, and tighter financial conditions weigh on activity.",
  "publishDate": "2026-09-28",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Overview and recent developments",
      "content": "- The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund completed the Article IV Consultation for Cambodia and endorsed the staff appraisal without a meeting on a lapse-of-time basis. The authorities consented to publication of the Staff Report.\n- Cambodia’s economy remained resilient in 2025, supported by robust manufacturing exports, foreign direct investment, and infrastructure projects, but growth slowed to 5.3 percent as domestic demand remained subdued amid a prolonged real estate correction.\n- Border tensions with Thailand reduced land-based tourism and remittances and prompted the return of nearly one million migrant workers.\n- Inflation rose sharply in early 2026, initially driven by higher energy prices and then broadening beyond energy. Financial conditions tightened with weaker credit and deposit growth and rising asset-quality pressures."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Near-term outlook and risks (IMF projections)",
      "content": "- Growth projections:\n  - Growth is projected to slow to 3.0 percent in 2026.\n  - Growth is projected to recover to 4.0 percent in 2027.\n- Inflation projections:\n  - Inflation (annual average) is projected at 5.6 percent in 2026 and 3.1 percent in 2027.\n  - Inflation (end-year) was 1.2 percent in 2025 and is projected at 5.8 percent in 2026 and 2.9 percent in 2027.\n- Balance and external sector:\n  - The current account deficit is projected to widen sharply in 2026, though resilient foreign direct investment and adequate international reserves provide important buffers.\n- Downside risks:\n  - Potential energy and trade disruptions, continued real estate weakness, financial integrity concerns, persistent scam activities, and financial vulnerabilities.\n  - Climate shocks and potential El Niño disruptions could keep price pressures elevated.\n- Upside risk:\n  - The authorities’ planned fiscal stimulus could boost growth."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Executive Board assessment (summary)",
      "content": "- Cambodia has remained resilient through successive shocks, but the near-term outlook weakened with signs of macro-financial strains.\n- Fiscal deficit remains within the authorities’ prescribed ceiling; public debt is sustainable with a low risk of debt distress.\n- The 2025 external position is assessed as broadly in line with fundamentals and desirable policies.\n- The end of regulatory forbearance exposed asset-quality strains amid continued real estate weakness and financial integrity concerns; financial vulnerabilities have heightened though systemic risks remain contained."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Fiscal policy recommendations",
      "content": "- Cushion the near-term slowdown through targeted support while maintaining debt sustainability.\n- Phase out broad fuel-related support as price pressures ease; focus assistance on vulnerable households.\n- As concessional financing declines, prioritize:\n  - Stronger domestic revenue mobilization.\n  - Domestic bond market development.\n  - Better expenditure allocation and execution.\n- Implement transparent costing and rationalization of tax expenditures, strengthen compliance, and broaden the tax base.\n- Operationalize the fiscal rule and buffer fund; improve public investment and cash management.\n- Strengthen oversight of PPP and SOE risks and enhance the integrity of the treasury single account to align borrowing with actual financing needs."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Monetary policy recommendations",
      "content": "- Remain agile to evolving inflation and foreign currency liquidity pressures.\n- Maintain the broadly stable riel–U.S. dollar exchange rate as the main nominal anchor.\n- Absorb excess riel liquidity through market-based operations if second-round inflationary pressures broaden.\n- Any foreign currency liquidity support should be temporary, collateralized, limited to solvent institutions, and consistent with preserving reserve adequacy.\n- Improve liquidity forecasting and operations, deepen interbank markets, and strengthen transmission in riel to support gradual de-dollarization."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Financial sector priorities and integrity measures",
      "content": "- Priorities:\n  - Decisive balance-sheet repair.\n  - Stronger NPL resolution.\n  - Tighter oversight to safeguard financial stability.\n- Actions required:\n  - Timely risk recognition, adequate provisioning, credible capital planning using bank-specific stress testing and forward-looking assessments.\n  - Operationalize crisis-management tools; make emergency liquidity assistance available only to institutions assessed as solvent; resolve nonviable institutions promptly.\n  - Finalize deposit protection and out-of-court liquidation frameworks; strengthen NPL resolution and foreclosure procedures.\n  - Improve reporting and coordination to oversee concentrated real estate, developer, large-borrower, and related-party exposures.\n- Financial integrity:\n  - Urgently identify and address potential links between criminal activity and banks; close significant gaps in licensing frameworks.\n  - Deepen understanding of how proceeds from scam activities and human-trafficking are laundered to enable targeted mitigation.\n  - Develop and enforce a regulatory framework for the virtual asset sector once enacted.\n  - Integrate these measures into broader anti-scam policies involving all relevant domestic agencies to maximize policy synergy and facilitate stronger international cooperation."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Structural reform priorities",
      "content": "- Raise the productivity payoff from investment and strengthen economic resilience through a focused implementation agenda that prioritizes:\n  - Attracting higher-quality FDI and crowding in domestic investment.\n  - Deepening supplier linkages, upgrading skills, and strengthening technology transfer.\n  - Better governance, rule of law, and more predictable enforcement to improve the investment climate.\n  - Investments in energy security and climate resilience.\n  - Improved data and interagency information sharing to strengthen competitiveness, risk monitoring, and policy design."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key statistics and projections (selected figures from IMF staff estimates and projections)",
      "content": "- Output and prices:\n  - GDP in constant prices: 2023 = 5.0; 2024 = 6.0; 2025 = 5.3; 2026 (Proj.) = 3.0; 2027 (Proj.) = 4.0.\n  - Inflation (end-year): 2023 = 2.7; 2024 = 3.0; 2025 = 1.2; 2026 (Proj.) = 5.8; 2027 (Proj.) = 2.9.\n  - Inflation (Annual average): 2023 = 2.1; 2024 = 0.8; 2025 = 2.5; 2026 (Proj.) = 5.6; 2027 (Proj.) = 3.1.\n- Saving and investment (percent of GDP):\n  - Gross national saving: 2025 = 27.8; 2026 (Proj.) = 23.4; 2027 (Proj.) = 25.3.\n  - Gross fixed investment: 2025 = 31.5; 2026 (Proj.) = 32.1; 2027 (Proj.) = 33.1.\n- Money and credit (annual percent change):\n  - Broad money: 2025 = 12.8; 2026 (Proj.) = 3.9; 2027 (Proj.) = 6.4.\n  - Private sector credit: 2025 = 6.2; 2026 (Proj.) = 3.5; 2027 (Proj.) = 4.5.\n- Public finance (percent of GDP):\n  - Revenue: 2025 = 15.0; 2026 (Proj.) = 14.6; 2027 (Proj.) = 14.6.\n  - Expenditure: 2025 = 16.0; 2026 (Proj.) = 17.5; 2027 (Proj.) = 17.4.\n  - Net lending (+)/borrowing (-): 2025 = -1.0; 2026 (Proj.) = -2.9; 2027 (Proj.) = -2.8.\n- Balance of payments (millions of dollars):\n  - Exports, f.o.b.: 2025 = 31,358; 2026 (Proj.) = 35,683; 2027 (Proj.) = 39,533.\n  - Imports, f.o.b.: 2025 = -36,932; 2026 (Proj.) = -43,150; 2027 (Proj.) = -46,917.\n  - Current account (including official transfers): 2025 = -1,868; 2026 (Proj.) = -4,733; 2027 (Proj.) = -4,486.\n- Reserves and external position:\n  - Gross official reserves (millions of dollars): 2025 = 27,530; 2026 (Proj.) = 27,652; 2027 (Proj.) = 27,919.\n  - Reserves (In months of prospective imports): 2025 = 8.9; 2026 (Proj.) = 7.7; 2027 (Proj.) = 7.1.\n- Public debt:\n  - Total public debt (millions of dollars): 2025 = 13,068; 2026 (Proj.) = 13,561; 2027 (Proj.) = 14,557.\n  - Total public debt (In percent of GDP): 2025 = 25.5; 2026 (Proj.) = 25.1; 2027 (Proj.) = 25.2.\n- Memorandum items:\n  - Nominal GDP (in billions of Riels): 2025 = 205,757; 2026 (Proj.) = 218,292; 2027 (Proj.) = 233,149.\n  - Nominal GDP (In millions of U.S. dollars): 2025 = 50,659; 2026 (Proj.) = 54,180; 2027 (Proj.) = 57,752."
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund completed the Article IV Consultation for Cambodia and endorsed the staff appraisal without a meeting on a lapse-of-time basis. The authorities consented to publication of the Staff Report.",
    "Cambodia’s economy remained resilient in 2025, supported by robust manufacturing exports, foreign direct investment, and infrastructure projects, but growth slowed to 5.3 percent as domestic demand remained subdued amid a prolonged real estate correction.",
    "Border tensions with Thailand reduced land-based tourism and remittances and prompted the return of nearly one million migrant workers.",
    "Inflation rose sharply in early 2026, initially driven by higher energy prices and then broadening beyond energy. Financial conditions tightened with weaker credit and deposit growth and rising asset-quality pressures.",
    "Growth projections:",
    "Inflation projections:",
    "Balance and external sector:",
    "Downside risks:",
    "Upside risk:",
    "Cambodia has remained resilient through successive shocks, but the near-term outlook weakened with signs of macro-financial strains.",
    "Fiscal deficit remains within the authorities’ prescribed ceiling; public debt is sustainable with a low risk of debt distress.",
    "The 2025 external position is assessed as broadly in line with fundamentals and desirable policies.",
    "The end of regulatory forbearance exposed asset-quality strains amid continued real estate weakness and financial integrity concerns; financial vulnerabilities have heightened though systemic risks remain contained.",
    "Cushion the near-term slowdown through targeted support while maintaining debt sustainability.",
    "Phase out broad fuel-related support as price pressures ease; focus assistance on vulnerable households.",
    "As concessional financing declines, prioritize:",
    "Implement transparent costing and rationalization of tax expenditures, strengthen compliance, and broaden the tax base.",
    "Operationalize the fiscal rule and buffer fund; improve public investment and cash management.",
    "Strengthen oversight of PPP and SOE risks and enhance the integrity of the treasury single account to align borrowing with actual financing needs.",
    "Remain agile to evolving inflation and foreign currency liquidity pressures.",
    "Maintain the broadly stable riel–U.S. dollar exchange rate as the main nominal anchor.",
    "Absorb excess riel liquidity through market-based operations if second-round inflationary pressures broaden.",
    "Any foreign currency liquidity support should be temporary, collateralized, limited to solvent institutions, and consistent with preserving reserve adequacy.",
    "Improve liquidity forecasting and operations, deepen interbank markets, and strengthen transmission in riel to support gradual de-dollarization.",
    "Priorities:",
    "Actions required:",
    "Financial integrity:",
    "Raise the productivity payoff from investment and strengthen economic resilience through a focused implementation agenda that prioritizes:",
    "Output and prices:",
    "Saving and investment (percent of GDP):",
    "Money and credit (annual percent change):",
    "Public finance (percent of GDP):",
    "Balance of payments (millions of dollars):",
    "Reserves and external position:",
    "Public debt:",
    "Memorandum items:"
  ],
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