Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas on the Story Behind the Number

IMF Podcasts

Source details

Release date: June 30, 2026.
Subject: Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas reflects on his tenure as IMF Chief Economist and the economic environment he faced.
Key theme: The value of forecasting lies less in precise point estimates and more in articulating the underlying forces and policy implications.

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas stepped in as IMF Chief Economist in January 2022.
He describes a period marked by:
- Inflation pressures that were already brewing when he began his tenure.
- Rising geopolitical tensions that added further upward pressure on inflation.
- Rapid technological change occurring alongside trade tensions and geopolitical shocks.
Duration referenced: "four + years" marked by trade tensions, geopolitical shocks, and rapid technological change.

Central insight: Forecasting is most valuable for explaining driving forces and policy implications rather than delivering precise point forecasts.
Emphasis on narrative: The episode highlights the importance of articulating the story behind numbers to inform policymakers and the public.

Guest: PIERRE-OLIVIER GOURINCHAS — outgoing economic counsellor and director of research.
Host/Producer: Bruce Edwards, International Monetary Fund.
- Bruce Edwards produces the IMF podcast program.
- Described as an award-winning audio producer and journalist who has covered armed conflicts, social unrest, and natural disasters.
- Stated belief: Economists have an important role in solving the world's problems and he aspires to showcase their research in every IMF podcast.