## Breaking the Oil Spell: The Gulf Falcons' Path to Diversification

_Books, April 15, 2016_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Breaking the Oil Spell: The Gulf Falcons' Path to Diversification](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/books/issues/2018/02/26/breaking-the-oil-spell-the-gulf-falcons-path-to-diversification-43480)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/publications/books/issues/2018/02/26/breaking-the-oil-spell-the-gulf-falcons-path-to-diversification-43480/index.md)
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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Reda Cherif, Fuad Hasanov, Min Zhu
- Published: April 15, 2016
- Series: Books
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513537863.071

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### Summary
- The “Gulf Falcons”—the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council—have high living standards as a result of large income flows from oil.
- The decline of oil prices between summer 2014 and fall 2015 underscores the urgency for the Gulf Falcons to diversify away from their current heavy reliance on oil exports.
- The book discusses attempts at diversification in the Middle East and North Africa and the complex choices policymakers face.
- It brings together the views of academics and policymakers to offer practical advice for future efforts to increase productivity growth.

### Major themes and analysis
- Diversification necessity:
  - Heavy reliance on oil exports is identified as a core structural vulnerability for the Gulf Falcons.
  - The oil price decline between summer 2014 and fall 2015 is presented as evidence increasing the urgency to diversify.
- Comparative lessons:
  - Attempts at diversification in the Middle East and North Africa are examined.
  - Perspectives from academics and policymakers are synthesized to inform practical strategies.
- Focus areas for boosting productivity:
  - Economic sectors highlighted include: Education, Exports, International trade, Labor, Manufacturing, Oil, Production, Productivity, Technology.
  - Keywords indicate emphasis on government failure, industry, value chain development, and lessons from East Asia and Korea.

### Key findings and emphases
- High living standards in the Gulf Falcons are linked to large oil income flows.
- Recent oil market developments (summer 2014 to fall 2015) change the policy urgency calculus for diversification.
- Increasing productivity growth is central to sustainable diversification efforts.

### Policy recommendations and practical advice (synthesized from source framing)
- Diversify away from heavy reliance on oil exports through multi-sector development and productivity-enhancing reforms.
- Draw on lessons from successful diversification experiences (implied reference to East Asia and Korea) while tailoring policies to Gulf Falcons’ specific contexts.
- Combine academic and policymaker perspectives to formulate actionable strategies that raise productivity and support private sector development.

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/books/issues/2018/02/26/breaking-the-oil-spell-the-gulf-falcons-path-to-diversification-43480_