{
  "title": "Germany: Staff Report for the 2002 Article IV Consultation",
  "publication": "IMF Staff Country Reports, October 31, 2002",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/cr/issues/2016/12/30/germany-staff-report-for-the-2002-article-iv-consultation-16154",
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  "summary": "This 2002 Article IV Consultation highlights that Germany’s economy is poised for a fragile recovery, after having barely grown since mid-2000. The earlier price shocks and interest rate hikes that contributed to the current slowdown have now unwound.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Executive summary",
      "content": "- Germany’s economy is poised for a fragile recovery after having barely grown since mid-2000.\n- The earlier price shocks and interest rate hikes that contributed to the current slowdown have now unwound.\n- Real GDP growth in 2002 is estimated at about 0.5 percent.\n- The general government deficit is set to exceed 3 percent of GDP.\n- Factors that may impede a strong recovery: sluggish global growth, stock market declines, weak credit growth, and the withdrawal implied by planned fiscal consolidation."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Near-term economic outlook and projections",
      "content": "- Real GDP growth in 2002: about 0.5 percent.\n- General government deficit: set to exceed 3 percent of GDP.\n- Recent disinflation: earlier price shocks and interest rate hikes have unwound (implying lower inflationary pressure)."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key risks and headwinds",
      "content": "- Sluggish global growth could damp external demand and the recovery.\n- Stock market declines may reduce wealth and investment.\n- Weak credit growth could limit financing for firms and households, slowing activity.\n- Planned fiscal consolidation may involve a withdrawal of demand, constraining recovery prospects."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy implications (inferred from report focus)",
      "content": "- Monitor and address financial conditions to support credit growth and market confidence.\n- Weigh the timing and pace of fiscal consolidation against the fragility of the recovery to avoid exacerbating the downturn.\n- Support measures to stabilize demand while ensuring medium-term fiscal sustainability.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- cr02239\n  - cr02239 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - cr02239 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}"
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    "Published: October 31, 2002",
    "Series: IMF Staff Country Reports",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451810363.002",
    "Germany’s economy is poised for a fragile recovery after having barely grown since mid-2000.",
    "The earlier price shocks and interest rate hikes that contributed to the current slowdown have now unwound.",
    "Real GDP growth in 2002 is estimated at about 0.5 percent.",
    "The general government deficit is set to exceed 3 percent of GDP.",
    "Factors that may impede a strong recovery: sluggish global growth, stock market declines, weak credit growth, and the withdrawal implied by planned fiscal consolidation.",
    "Real GDP growth in 2002: about 0.5 percent.",
    "General government deficit: set to exceed 3 percent of GDP.",
    "Recent disinflation: earlier price shocks and interest rate hikes have unwound (implying lower inflationary pressure).",
    "Sluggish global growth could damp external demand and the recovery.",
    "Stock market declines may reduce wealth and investment.",
    "Weak credit growth could limit financing for firms and households, slowing activity.",
    "Planned fiscal consolidation may involve a withdrawal of demand, constraining recovery prospects.",
    "Monitor and address financial conditions to support credit growth and market confidence.",
    "Weigh the timing and pace of fiscal consolidation against the fragility of the recovery to avoid exacerbating the downturn.",
    "Support measures to stabilize demand while ensuring medium-term fiscal sustainability.",
    "**_cr02239**"
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