{ "title": "Belize: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation", "publication": "IMF Staff Country Reports, September 17, 2014", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/cr/issues/2016/12/31/belize-staff-report-for-the-2014-article-iv-consultation-41914", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/cr/issues/2016/12/31/belize-staff-report-for-the-2014-article-iv-consultation-41914", "overlayPath": "/en/publications/cr/issues/2016/12/31/belize-staff-report-for-the-2014-article-iv-consultation-41914/index.md", "summary": "KEY ISSUES Outlook and risks. The economy will remain vulnerable over the medium term, with sluggish real GDP growth, rising public debt and widening external current account deficits. International reserves could decline to uncomfortably low levels.", "sections": [ { "heading": "Outlook and risks", "content": "- Economy will remain vulnerable over the medium term, with:\n - sluggish real GDP growth;\n - rising public debt;\n - widening external current account deficits.\n- International reserves could decline to uncomfortably low levels.\n- Financial system vulnerabilities:\n - high NPLs;\n - low capital buffers, especially at a systemic bank.\n- Main fiscal risks:\n - a court decision that could lead to a larger than expected compensation to the former owners of the nationalized companies;\n - weaknesses in a systemic bank;\n - the cost of the new public bank." }, { "heading": "Focus of the Consultation", "content": "- Measures to place public debt on a sustainable path.\n- Actions to address weaknesses in the financial system, particularly in a systemic bank.\n- Steps to buttress external sector resilience.\n- Policies to enhance competitiveness and inclusive growth." }, { "heading": "Key policy advice", "content": "- Fiscal consolidation:\n - Improve the primary fiscal balance to about 4.5 percent of GDP starting in 2015.\n - Measures to achieve this include:\n - allowing spending on goods and services to rise only in line with inflation;\n - containing the expansion in the wage bill;\n - requiring public workers to contribute to their pensions;\n - widening the tax base and strengthening revenue administration.\n - Active debt management, including refinancing of expensive debt with low-earning deposits (essentially from PetroCaribe), to support these efforts.\n- Financial sector:\n - Address banking sector vulnerabilities through improving capital buffers.\n- Public financial management (PFM):\n - Improve PFM to contain low-quality spending;\n - strengthen budget formulation, preparation, and execution;\n - improve the coverage and accuracy of budget documents.\n- Structural and growth policies:\n - Further improve the business environment to attract more private investment, boost competitiveness, and enhance job-creating and inclusive growth." }, { "heading": "Implementation of staff advice", "content": "- Implementation of recent staff advice is mixed.\n- The breathing room provided by the debt restructuring was not used to improve the primary fiscal balance.\n- The authorities plan to review exemptions and zero-ratings under the GST.\n\nIMF Staff Report: Belize: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation (IMF Staff Country Reports 2014, No. 280, 71 pages, DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498311724.002).\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Belize: 2014 Article IV Consultation--Staff Report; Press Release\n - Belize: 2014 Article IV Consultation--Staff Report; Press Release (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Belize: 2014 Article IV Consultation--Staff Report; Press Release (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/publications/cr/issues/2016/12/31/belize-staff-report-for-the-2014-article-iv-consultation-41914/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/cr/issues/2016/12/31/belize-staff-report-for-the-2014-article-iv-consultation-41914/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/cr/issues/2016/12/31/belize-staff-report-for-the-2014-article-iv-consultation-41914/bundle-manifest.json)", "Published: September 17, 2014", "Series: IMF Staff Country Reports", "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498311724.002", "Economy will remain vulnerable over the medium term, with:", "Financial system vulnerabilities:", "Main fiscal risks:", "Measures to place public debt on a sustainable path.", "Actions to address weaknesses in the financial system, particularly in a systemic bank.", "Steps to buttress external sector resilience.", "Policies to enhance competitiveness and inclusive growth.", "Fiscal consolidation:", "Financial sector:", "Public financial management (PFM):", "Structural and growth policies:", "Implementation of recent staff advice is mixed.", "The breathing room provided by the debt restructuring was not used to improve the primary fiscal balance.", "The authorities plan to review exemptions and zero-ratings under the GST.", "**Belize: 2014 Article IV Consultation--Staff Report; 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