{
  "title": "Myanmar: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation",
  "publication": "IMF Staff Country Reports, October 6, 2014",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/cr/issues/2016/12/31/myanmar-staff-report-for-the-2014-article-iv-consultation-42387",
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  "summary": "KEY ISSUES Context: The authorities continue to make progress on their far-reaching political and economic reform program. Key economic reform priorities are being realized. However, macroeconomic and financial risks are building, and capacity constraints are slowing institutional reform.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Key issues and context",
      "content": "- Authorities continue to make progress on a far-reaching political and economic reform program; key economic reform priorities are being realized.\n- Macroeconomic and financial risks are building, and capacity constraints are slowing institutional reform.\n- Constitutional amendments are being considered ahead of the 2015 elections, and peace negotiations are continuing despite religious and ethnic tensions."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Macroeconomic situation and outlook",
      "content": "- Growth is accelerating, with average growth projected around 8¼ percent in the next few years.\n- Inflation should remain broadly stable.\n- After depreciating in 2013, the exchange rate has stabilized.\n- The external current account has widened despite improved export performance.\n- Rising capital account inflows should enable Central Bank of Myanmar (CBM)’s international reserves to grow rapidly from their current low levels.\n- Monetary aggregates are growing at double-digit rates.\n- The underlying fiscal deficit in 2013/14 is estimated at 3 percent of GDP.\n- The underlying fiscal deficit is forecast to widen to around 5½ percent of GDP in 2014/15, but should decline below 5 percent of GDP in the medium term.\n- Off budget operations could increase the deficit.\n- Risks arise from capacity constraints and thin fiscal and external buffers."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Medium- and long-term prospects",
      "content": "- Economic prospects remain strong.\n- Myanmar’s long-run growth potential is estimated at around 7 percent, in line with peer countries’ experience.\n- Realizing this potential requires building sound institutional and policy frameworks."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key policy recommendations",
      "content": "- Monetary policy tools need to be more aggressively deployed.\n- Establish mechanisms to transfer public sector foreign exchange earnings automatically to the CBM.\n- Urgently upgrade the regulatory framework for the banking sector and strengthen supervision, particularly as foreign banks will soon enter.\n- Tax policy and administration should aim at simplifying the system and preparing for the introduction of a value-added tax (VAT)."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Technical assistance and capacity building",
      "content": "- Capacity building will be crucial to achieve policy objectives.\n- The IMF continues to provide intensive technical assistance in key areas, including a wide range of CBM operations, tax policy and administration, public financial management and statistics.\n\nInternational Monetary Fund. Myanmar: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation (October 6, 2014).\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Myanmar\n  - Myanmar (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Myanmar (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}"
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    "Published: October 6, 2014",
    "Series: IMF Staff Country Reports",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498309202.002",
    "Authorities continue to make progress on a far-reaching political and economic reform program; key economic reform priorities are being realized.",
    "Macroeconomic and financial risks are building, and capacity constraints are slowing institutional reform.",
    "Constitutional amendments are being considered ahead of the 2015 elections, and peace negotiations are continuing despite religious and ethnic tensions.",
    "Growth is accelerating, with average growth projected around 8¼ percent in the next few years.",
    "Inflation should remain broadly stable.",
    "After depreciating in 2013, the exchange rate has stabilized.",
    "The external current account has widened despite improved export performance.",
    "Rising capital account inflows should enable Central Bank of Myanmar (CBM)’s international reserves to grow rapidly from their current low levels.",
    "Monetary aggregates are growing at double-digit rates.",
    "The underlying fiscal deficit in 2013/14 is estimated at 3 percent of GDP.",
    "The underlying fiscal deficit is forecast to widen to around 5½ percent of GDP in 2014/15, but should decline below 5 percent of GDP in the medium term.",
    "Off budget operations could increase the deficit.",
    "Risks arise from capacity constraints and thin fiscal and external buffers.",
    "Economic prospects remain strong.",
    "Myanmar’s long-run growth potential is estimated at around 7 percent, in line with peer countries’ experience.",
    "Realizing this potential requires building sound institutional and policy frameworks.",
    "Monetary policy tools need to be more aggressively deployed.",
    "Establish mechanisms to transfer public sector foreign exchange earnings automatically to the CBM.",
    "Urgently upgrade the regulatory framework for the banking sector and strengthen supervision, particularly as foreign banks will soon enter.",
    "Tax policy and administration should aim at simplifying the system and preparing for the introduction of a value-added tax (VAT).",
    "Capacity building will be crucial to achieve policy objectives.",
    "The IMF continues to provide intensive technical assistance in key areas, including a wide range of CBM operations, tax policy and administration, public financial management and statistics.",
    "**Myanmar**"
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