{
  "title": "Portugal: Selected Issues",
  "publication": "IMF Staff Country Reports, September 22, 2016",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/cr/issues/2016/12/31/portugal-selected-issues-44283",
  "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/cr/issues/2016/12/31/portugal-selected-issues-44283",
  "overlayPath": "/en/publications/cr/issues/2016/12/31/portugal-selected-issues-44283/index.md",
  "summary": "This Selected Issues paper estimates the fiscal impact of demographic changes in Portugal and the euro area over the period 2015–2100. Under the baseline projections of the United Nations, Portugal is among the countries in the euro area that is expected to be most hurt by demographic developments.",
  "publishDate": "2016-09-22",
  "series": "IMF Staff Country Reports",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Main findings: demographic projections and fiscal impact",
      "content": "- Time horizon analyzed: 2015–2100.\n- Under the baseline projections of the United Nations, Portugal’s population is expected to shrink by about 30 percent during 2015–2100.\n- The old-age dependency ratio is expected to more than double over 2015–2100.\n- Drivers of demographic change identified: low fertility, higher longevity, and migration outflows.\n- Age-related public spending would increase by about 6 percentage points of GDP under the baseline over the period 2015–50.\n- Conclusion on fiscal sustainability: the public debt path would become unsustainable in the absence of offsetting policies."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Scope and focus",
      "content": "- Geographical focus: Portugal and the euro area (comparative context).\n- Policy-relevant areas covered: Aging, Banking, Expenditure, Health care spending, Migration, Pension spending, Population and demographics.\n- Analytical approach: fiscal impact estimation of demographic changes."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy implications and priorities (as stated)",
      "content": "- Without offsetting policies, demographic-driven increases in age-related spending will push the public debt path toward unsustainability.\n- Implicit policy priority: design and implement offsetting policies to contain the fiscal impact of population aging (paper emphasizes need for such policies)."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key statistics and timeframe (preserved exactly)",
      "content": "- Projection period: 2015–2100.\n- Population change: shrink by about 30 percent (2015–2100).\n- Old-age dependency ratio: expected to more than double (2015–2100).\n- Increase in age-related public spending: about 6 percentage points of GDP (2015–50).\n\nInternational Monetary Fund. Portugal: Selected Issues, September 22, 2016.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Portugal: Selected Issues; IMF Country Report 16/301; August 25, 2016\n  - Portugal: Selected Issues; IMF Country Report 16/301; August 25, 2016 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Portugal: Selected Issues; IMF Country Report 16/301; August 25, 2016 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/cr/issues/2016/12/31/portugal-selected-issues-44283"
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "[Markdown version](/en/publications/cr/issues/2016/12/31/portugal-selected-issues-44283/index.md)",
    "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/cr/issues/2016/12/31/portugal-selected-issues-44283/index.json)",
    "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/cr/issues/2016/12/31/portugal-selected-issues-44283/bundle-manifest.json)",
    "Published: September 22, 2016",
    "Series: IMF Staff Country Reports",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475538397.002",
    "Time horizon analyzed: 2015–2100.",
    "Under the baseline projections of the United Nations, Portugal’s population is expected to shrink by about 30 percent during 2015–2100.",
    "The old-age dependency ratio is expected to more than double over 2015–2100.",
    "Drivers of demographic change identified: low fertility, higher longevity, and migration outflows.",
    "Age-related public spending would increase by about 6 percentage points of GDP under the baseline over the period 2015–50.",
    "Conclusion on fiscal sustainability: the public debt path would become unsustainable in the absence of offsetting policies.",
    "Geographical focus: Portugal and the euro area (comparative context).",
    "Policy-relevant areas covered: Aging, Banking, Expenditure, Health care spending, Migration, Pension spending, Population and demographics.",
    "Analytical approach: fiscal impact estimation of demographic changes.",
    "Without offsetting policies, demographic-driven increases in age-related spending will push the public debt path toward unsustainability.",
    "Implicit policy priority: design and implement offsetting policies to contain the fiscal impact of population aging (paper emphasizes need for such policies).",
    "Projection period: 2015–2100.",
    "Population change: shrink by about 30 percent (2015–2100).",
    "Old-age dependency ratio: expected to more than double (2015–2100).",
    "Increase in age-related public spending: about 6 percentage points of GDP (2015–50).",
    "**Portugal: Selected Issues; IMF Country Report 16/301; August 25, 2016**"
  ],
  "related": [
    {
      "title": "Portugal: Selected Issues; IMF Country Report 16/301; August 25, 2016",
      "role": "document",
      "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2016/_cr16301.pdf",
      "summary": {
        "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2016/_cr16301.pdf.md",
        "mime": "text/markdown"
      },
      "binary": {
        "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2016/_cr16301.pdf",
        "mime": "application/pdf"
      }
    }
  ],
  "alternates": {
    "markdown": "/en/publications/cr/issues/2016/12/31/portugal-selected-issues-44283/index.md",
    "json": "/en/publications/cr/issues/2016/12/31/portugal-selected-issues-44283/index.json",
    "bundleManifest": "/en/publications/cr/issues/2016/12/31/portugal-selected-issues-44283/bundle-manifest.json"
  },
  "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-22T14:35:15.727Z"
}