## Portugal: Selected Issues

_IMF Staff Country Reports, September 22, 2016_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Portugal: Selected Issues](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/cr/issues/2016/12/31/portugal-selected-issues-44283)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/publications/cr/issues/2016/12/31/portugal-selected-issues-44283/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/cr/issues/2016/12/31/portugal-selected-issues-44283/index.json)
- [Bundle manifest](/en/publications/cr/issues/2016/12/31/portugal-selected-issues-44283/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Published: September 22, 2016
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475538397.002

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### Main findings: demographic projections and fiscal impact
- Time horizon analyzed: 2015–2100.
- Under the baseline projections of the United Nations, Portugal’s population is expected to shrink by about 30 percent during 2015–2100.
- The old-age dependency ratio is expected to more than double over 2015–2100.
- Drivers of demographic change identified: low fertility, higher longevity, and migration outflows.
- Age-related public spending would increase by about 6 percentage points of GDP under the baseline over the period 2015–50.
- Conclusion on fiscal sustainability: the public debt path would become unsustainable in the absence of offsetting policies.

### Scope and focus
- Geographical focus: Portugal and the euro area (comparative context).
- Policy-relevant areas covered: Aging, Banking, Expenditure, Health care spending, Migration, Pension spending, Population and demographics.
- Analytical approach: fiscal impact estimation of demographic changes.

### Policy implications and priorities (as stated)
- Without offsetting policies, demographic-driven increases in age-related spending will push the public debt path toward unsustainability.
- Implicit policy priority: design and implement offsetting policies to contain the fiscal impact of population aging (paper emphasizes need for such policies).

### Key statistics and timeframe (preserved exactly)
- Projection period: 2015–2100.
- Population change: shrink by about 30 percent (2015–2100).
- Old-age dependency ratio: expected to more than double (2015–2100).
- Increase in age-related public spending: about 6 percentage points of GDP (2015–50).

*International Monetary Fund. Portugal: Selected Issues, September 22, 2016.*

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## Content in this bundle

- **Portugal: Selected Issues; IMF Country Report 16/301; August 25, 2016**
  - [Portugal: Selected Issues; IMF Country Report 16/301; August 25, 2016 (Markdown version)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2016/_cr16301.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Portugal: Selected Issues; IMF Country Report 16/301; August 25, 2016 (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2016/_cr16301.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/cr/issues/2016/12/31/portugal-selected-issues-44283_