{
  "title": "Trinidad and Tobago: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Trinidad and Tobago",
  "publication": "IMF Staff Country Reports, June 29, 2016",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/cr/issues/2016/12/31/trinidad-and-tobago-2016-article-iv-consultation-press-release-staff-report-and-statement-by-44034",
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  "summary": "This paper discusses economic developments, outlook, and risks in Trinidad and Tobago. The economic output of Trinidad and Tobago has continued to shrink. Ongoing maintenance and further declines in gas and oil production are estimated to have driven energy output 4.",
  "publishDate": "2016-06-29",
  "series": "IMF Staff Country Reports",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Economic developments",
      "content": "- Economic output of Trinidad and Tobago has continued to shrink.\n- Energy output was 4.7 percent lower (year over year) as of September 2015, driven by ongoing maintenance and further declines in gas and oil production.\n- The longstanding current account surplus turned into a 5.4 percent of GDP deficit in 2015.\n- The significant terms-of-trade shock implies that the real effective exchange rate has become more overvalued.\n- Subject tags in the report include: Energy pricing, Energy subsidies, Expenditure, Foreign exchange, Public debt."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Outlook and risks",
      "content": "- Risks to growth are tilted to the downside.\n- Much of the outlook will depend on the authorities’ ability to navigate the transition to the lower energy price environment.\n- Keywords highlighting fiscal and institutional considerations include: assumptions in the budget, authorities in collaboration, revenue base, shortage, headline inflation, debt, ISCR, government."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key statistics and factual points preserved from the report",
      "content": "- Energy output: \"4.7 percent lower (year over year) as of September 2015\"\n- Current account position: \"a 5.4 percent of GDP deficit in 2015\"\n- Report series and identifiers included on the page: \"IMF Staff Country Reports\", \"Series: Country Report No. 2016/204\", \"Issue: 204\", \"Volume: 2016\", \"Pages: 73\", \"DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475578232.002\", \"ISBN: 9781475578232\", \"ISSN: 1934-7685\", \"Stock No: 1TTOEA2016001\""
    },
    {
      "heading": "Analytical emphasis and implications for policy",
      "content": "- The report emphasizes the macroeconomic impact of lower energy production and prices, notably through:\n  - A swing from a current account surplus to a sizable deficit (5.4 percent of GDP in 2015).\n  - Overvaluation pressures on the real effective exchange rate following the terms-of-trade shock.\n- Policy focus implied by the analysis:\n  - Implement measures to manage the fiscal and external adjustment associated with lower energy revenues.\n  - Strengthen the revenue base and expenditure management to address the deficit and public debt implications.\n  - Address energy-sector maintenance and production issues to stabilize output where feasible.\n  - Monitor and, if needed, adjust exchange rate-related policies to reflect the changed terms of trade and external position.\n\nTrinidad and Tobago: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Trinidad and Tobago, IMF Staff Country Reports 2016, 204 (2016).\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- cr16204\n  - cr16204 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - cr16204 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/cr/issues/2016/12/31/trinidad-and-tobago-2016-article-iv-consultation-press-release-staff-report-and-statement-by-44034"
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    "Published: June 29, 2016",
    "Series: IMF Staff Country Reports",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475578232.002",
    "Economic output of Trinidad and Tobago has continued to shrink.",
    "Energy output was 4.7 percent lower (year over year) as of September 2015, driven by ongoing maintenance and further declines in gas and oil production.",
    "The longstanding current account surplus turned into a 5.4 percent of GDP deficit in 2015.",
    "The significant terms-of-trade shock implies that the real effective exchange rate has become more overvalued.",
    "Subject tags in the report include: Energy pricing, Energy subsidies, Expenditure, Foreign exchange, Public debt.",
    "Risks to growth are tilted to the downside.",
    "Much of the outlook will depend on the authorities’ ability to navigate the transition to the lower energy price environment.",
    "Keywords highlighting fiscal and institutional considerations include: assumptions in the budget, authorities in collaboration, revenue base, shortage, headline inflation, debt, ISCR, government.",
    "Energy output: \"4.7 percent lower (year over year) as of September 2015\"",
    "Current account position: \"a 5.4 percent of GDP deficit in 2015\"",
    "Report series and identifiers included on the page: \"IMF Staff Country Reports\", \"Series: Country Report No. 2016/204\", \"Issue: 204\", \"Volume: 2016\", \"Pages: 73\", \"DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475578232.002\", \"ISBN: 9781475578232\", \"ISSN: 1934-7685\", \"Stock No: 1TTOEA2016001\"",
    "The report emphasizes the macroeconomic impact of lower energy production and prices, notably through:",
    "Policy focus implied by the analysis:",
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