{ "title": "Russian Federation: Selected Issues", "publication": "IMF Staff Country Reports, July 10, 2017", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/cr/issues/2017/07/10/russian-federation-selected-issues-45055", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/cr/issues/2017/07/10/russian-federation-selected-issues-45055", "overlayPath": "/en/publications/cr/issues/2017/07/10/russian-federation-selected-issues-45055/index.md", "summary": "This paper focuses on the task that may be more complicated when the adjustment in relative prices is driven by a negative terms of trade (ToT) shock.", "publishDate": "2017-07-10", "series": "IMF Staff Country Reports", "sections": [ { "heading": "Summary and Scope", "content": "- Publication date: July 10, 2017.\n- Focus: complications in adjustment of relative prices when driven by a negative terms of trade (ToT) shock.\n- Two sets of factors explored:\n - Disruptiveness of sudden terms-of-trade driven devaluations.\n - Issues related to external demand and access to external markets.\n- Central analytical premise examined: the symmetry assumption that a reduction in commodity prices will unwind Dutch disease—i.e., real depreciation after falling commodity prices should restore resources to the non-commodity tradable sector." }, { "heading": "Key Findings and Analysis", "content": "- Symmetry assumption challenged:\n - The argument assumes the elasticity of non-commodity exports to the real effective exchange rate (REER) is equal regardless of the direction of REER movements and unaffected by the phase of the commodity cycle.\n - The paper highlights that this symmetry may not hold.\n- Deep sectoral linkages:\n - Deep linkages between the commodity and non-commodity sectors can prevent the non-commodity tradable sector from benefiting from depreciation caused by a commodity price shock.\n - Such depreciation can put stress on the entire economy, undermining the expected rebound of non-commodity exports.\n- External demand and market access:\n - Problems related to external demand and access to external markets are key constraints on the adjustment process following a ToT shock.\n- Disruptiveness of sudden devaluations:\n - Sudden terms-of-trade driven devaluations can be disruptive, complicating adjustment and potentially amplifying adverse effects across sectors." }, { "heading": "Policy Implications and Considerations", "content": "- Reassessment of policy expectations:\n - Policymakers should not rely on symmetric responses of non-commodity exports to REER movements when designing adjustment strategies following commodity price shocks.\n- Addressing structural linkages:\n - Policies aimed at facilitating reallocation should account for deep commodity–non-commodity sector linkages that can inhibit recovery of the non-commodity tradable sector.\n- External market strategies:\n - Strengthening access to external markets and supporting demand for non-commodity exports are important complements to exchange-rate adjustment." }, { "heading": "Subject and Keywords (as presented)", "content": "- Subject: Exports, Fiscal federalism, Fiscal policy, Fiscal rules, Inflation, International trade, Oil prices, Prices\n- Keywords: commodity exporter, CR, Exports, Fiscal federalism, Fiscal rules, Global, import price inflation, Inflation, inflation expectation, inflation-unemployment trade-off, ISCR, oil price, Oil prices, tot shock\n\nRussian Federation: Selected Issues — IMF Staff Country Reports, July 10, 2017.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Country Report\n - Country Report (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Country Report (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/cr/issues/2017/07/10/russian-federation-selected-issues-45055" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/publications/cr/issues/2017/07/10/russian-federation-selected-issues-45055/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/cr/issues/2017/07/10/russian-federation-selected-issues-45055/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/cr/issues/2017/07/10/russian-federation-selected-issues-45055/bundle-manifest.json)", "Published: July 10, 2017", "Series: IMF Staff Country Reports", "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484308202.002", "Publication date: July 10, 2017.", "Focus: complications in adjustment of relative prices when driven by a negative terms of trade (ToT) shock.", "Two sets of factors explored:", "Central analytical premise examined: the symmetry assumption that a reduction in commodity prices will unwind Dutch disease—i.e., real depreciation after falling commodity prices should restore resources to the non-commodity tradable sector.", "Symmetry assumption challenged:", "Deep sectoral linkages:", "External demand and market access:", "Disruptiveness of sudden devaluations:", "Reassessment of policy expectations:", "Addressing structural linkages:", "External market strategies:", "Subject: Exports, Fiscal federalism, Fiscal policy, Fiscal rules, Inflation, International trade, Oil prices, Prices", "Keywords: commodity exporter, CR, Exports, Fiscal federalism, Fiscal rules, Global, import price inflation, Inflation, inflation expectation, inflation-unemployment trade-off, ISCR, oil price, Oil prices, tot shock", "**Country Report**" ], "related": [ { "title": "Country Report", "role": "report", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2017/cr17198.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/cr/2017/cr17198.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/cr/2017/cr17198.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } } ], "alternates": { "markdown": "/en/publications/cr/issues/2017/07/10/russian-federation-selected-issues-45055/index.md", "json": "/en/publications/cr/issues/2017/07/10/russian-federation-selected-issues-45055/index.json", "bundleManifest": "/en/publications/cr/issues/2017/07/10/russian-federation-selected-issues-45055/bundle-manifest.json" }, "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-23T12:12:49.011Z" }