## Vietnam: Selected Issues

_IMF Staff Country Reports, July 10, 2018_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Vietnam: Selected Issues](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/cr/issues/2018/07/10/vietnam-selected-issues-46065)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/publications/cr/issues/2018/07/10/vietnam-selected-issues-46065/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/cr/issues/2018/07/10/vietnam-selected-issues-46065/index.json)
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## Bibliographic details
- Published: July 10, 2018
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484367216.002

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### Summary findings
- The paper assesses how Vietnam's structural transformation has affected its growth potential.
- The analysis concludes that Vietnam’s medium-term growth potential has increased from 6.2 percent estimated in 2014 to 6.5 percent.
- On balance, the potential growth estimate in Vietnam is assessed at 6.5 percent in 2017, higher than previous staff estimates of 6.2.
- The output gap is estimated at 0.4 percent in 2017.
- The paper notes that acceleration of reforms that have generated productivity gains in the last decade, including the implementation of agreed free trade agreements, could further boost growth potential.
- The analysis will be extended further in a forthcoming paper.

### Methodologies and technical considerations
- A range of methodologies (four methodologies) provide a range of estimates for Vietnam’s potential output.
- Production function estimates can be improved by:
  - Explicitly incorporating the effect of structural transformation due to labor reallocation into the model.
  - Better accounting for the impact of the quality of human capital accumulation by taking the quality of education into account.
- Improvements in data quality could further enhance the analysis. Examples cited:
  - Real estate prices
  - Quarterly gross domestic product
  - Unemployment rate and labor force in the informal sector
  - Capacity utilization

### Subject areas and keywords
- Subject: Asset and liability management, Credit, Credit gaps, Debt limits, Expenditure, Financial sector policy and analysis, Potential output, Production, Total factor productivity
- Keywords: CR, Credit gaps, credit-to-GDP ratio, debt anchor, Debt limits, debt rule, Global, house price misalignment, IMF staff estimate, ISCR, potential GDP, Potential output, Total factor productivity, Vietnam

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- **Country Report**
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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/cr/issues/2018/07/10/vietnam-selected-issues-46065_