{
  "title": "Ecuador: Selected Issues Paper and Analytical Notes",
  "publication": "IMF Staff Country Reports, March 20, 2019",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/cr/issues/2019/03/20/ecuador-selected-issues-paper-and-analytical-notes-46683",
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  "summary": "This Selected Issues paper estimates Ecuador’s potential growth in the range of 1 3/4 to 3 percent. The lower estimate corresponds to an extrapolation of recent trends while the higher estimate could be achievable through the implementation of a reform agenda that addresses fiscal and competitivenes",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Potential growth estimates",
      "content": "- The paper estimates Ecuador’s potential growth in the range of 1 3/4 to 3 percent.\n- The lower estimate corresponds to an extrapolation of recent trends.\n- The higher estimate could be achievable through the implementation of a reform agenda that addresses fiscal and competitiveness challenges of Ecuador."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Growth accounting and drivers of recent performance",
      "content": "- A simple growth accounting exercise decomposes Ecuador’s growth between production factors accumulation (capital and labor) and total factor productivity.\n- The study shows that low total factor productivity is the reason behind Ecuador’s recent economic decline and has been a negative contributor to long-term growth.\n- The oil sector remains an important driver of economic activity; however, it is not as important as it once was."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Nowcasting and forecasting GDP",
      "content": "- The paper develops models to nowcast and forecast GDP to improve the accuracy of growth projections.\n- Different vector autoregression models are explored to identify the best one to forecast real GDP in Ecuador."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy implications and reform agenda",
      "content": "- Achieving the higher potential growth estimate (3 percent) would require implementing a reform agenda that addresses:\n  - Fiscal challenges.\n  - Competitiveness challenges.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Ecuador: Selected Issues Paper and Analytical Notes ; IMF Country Report No. 19/80; March 1, 2019\n  - Ecuador: Selected Issues Paper and Analytical Notes ; IMF Country Report No. 19/80; March 1, 2019 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Ecuador: Selected Issues Paper and Analytical Notes ; IMF Country Report No. 19/80; March 1, 2019 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}"
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    "Published: March 20, 2019",
    "Series: IMF Staff Country Reports",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498303675.002",
    "The paper estimates Ecuador’s potential growth in the range of 1 3/4 to 3 percent.",
    "The lower estimate corresponds to an extrapolation of recent trends.",
    "The higher estimate could be achievable through the implementation of a reform agenda that addresses fiscal and competitiveness challenges of Ecuador.",
    "A simple growth accounting exercise decomposes Ecuador’s growth between production factors accumulation (capital and labor) and total factor productivity.",
    "The study shows that low total factor productivity is the reason behind Ecuador’s recent economic decline and has been a negative contributor to long-term growth.",
    "The oil sector remains an important driver of economic activity; however, it is not as important as it once was.",
    "The paper develops models to nowcast and forecast GDP to improve the accuracy of growth projections.",
    "Different vector autoregression models are explored to identify the best one to forecast real GDP in Ecuador.",
    "Achieving the higher potential growth estimate (3 percent) would require implementing a reform agenda that addresses:",
    "**Ecuador: Selected Issues Paper and Analytical Notes ; IMF Country Report No. 19/80; March 1, 2019**"
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