## Ecuador: Selected Issues Paper and Analytical Notes

_IMF Staff Country Reports, March 20, 2019_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Ecuador: Selected Issues Paper and Analytical Notes](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/cr/issues/2019/03/20/ecuador-selected-issues-paper-and-analytical-notes-46683)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/publications/cr/issues/2019/03/20/ecuador-selected-issues-paper-and-analytical-notes-46683/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/cr/issues/2019/03/20/ecuador-selected-issues-paper-and-analytical-notes-46683/index.json)
- [Bundle manifest](/en/publications/cr/issues/2019/03/20/ecuador-selected-issues-paper-and-analytical-notes-46683/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Published: March 20, 2019
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498303675.002

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### Potential growth estimates
- The paper estimates Ecuador’s potential growth in the range of 1 3/4 to 3 percent.
- The lower estimate corresponds to an extrapolation of recent trends.
- The higher estimate could be achievable through the implementation of a reform agenda that addresses fiscal and competitiveness challenges of Ecuador.

### Growth accounting and drivers of recent performance
- A simple growth accounting exercise decomposes Ecuador’s growth between production factors accumulation (capital and labor) and total factor productivity.
- The study shows that low total factor productivity is the reason behind Ecuador’s recent economic decline and has been a negative contributor to long-term growth.
- The oil sector remains an important driver of economic activity; however, it is not as important as it once was.

### Nowcasting and forecasting GDP
- The paper develops models to nowcast and forecast GDP to improve the accuracy of growth projections.
- Different vector autoregression models are explored to identify the best one to forecast real GDP in Ecuador.

### Policy implications and reform agenda
- Achieving the higher potential growth estimate (3 percent) would require implementing a reform agenda that addresses:
  - Fiscal challenges.
  - Competitiveness challenges.

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## Content in this bundle

- **Ecuador: Selected Issues Paper and Analytical Notes ; IMF Country Report No. 19/80; March 1, 2019**
  - [Ecuador: Selected Issues Paper and Analytical Notes ; IMF Country Report No. 19/80; March 1, 2019 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/cr/2019/1ecuea2019002.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Ecuador: Selected Issues Paper and Analytical Notes ; IMF Country Report No. 19/80; March 1, 2019 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/cr/2019/1ecuea2019002.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/cr/issues/2019/03/20/ecuador-selected-issues-paper-and-analytical-notes-46683_