## Russian Federation: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report

_IMF Staff Country Reports, August 2, 2019_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Russian Federation: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/cr/issues/2019/08/01/russian-federation-2019-article-iv-consultation-press-release-staff-report-48549)

## Other formats

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## Bibliographic details
- Published: August 2, 2019
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513509693.002

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### Growth outlook
- Growth is projected at 1.2 percent in 2019, reflecting a weak first quarter estimate, lower oil prices and the impact of the higher value-added tax rate on private consumption.
- Gross domestic product growth should be supported by an increase in public sector spending in the context of the national projects announced in 2018.
- The medium-term growth outlook remains modest.
- Absent deeper structural reforms, long-run growth is projected to settle around 1.8 percent.
- Public infrastructure spending under the national projects together with increased labor supply due to pension reform could have a positive effect on the growth rate of potential output.

### Inflation and price outlook
- Inflation has begun to fall and is expected to return to the 4 percent target by early 2020.

### Fiscal and public spending
- An increase in public sector spending associated with the national projects announced in 2018 is expected to support GDP growth.

### Structural reforms and policy recommendations
- It is recommended that it is imperative to enhance competition by facilitating entry/exit and reforming public procurement.

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/cr/issues/2019/08/01/russian-federation-2019-article-iv-consultation-press-release-staff-report-48549_