{
  "title": "People’s Republic of China: Selected Issues",
  "publication": "IMF Staff Country Reports, August 23, 2019",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/cr/issues/2019/08/15/peoples-republic-of-china-selected-issues-48593",
  "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/cr/issues/2019/08/15/peoples-republic-of-china-selected-issues-48593",
  "overlayPath": "/en/publications/cr/issues/2019/08/15/peoples-republic-of-china-selected-issues-48593/index.md",
  "summary": "This Selected Issues paper focuses on the drivers, implications and outlook for China’s shrinking current account surplus.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary findings",
      "content": "- The paper focuses on the drivers, implications and outlook for China’s shrinking current account surplus.\n- Although cyclical factors helped in 2018, the trend decline has been largely structural.\n- Further declines in the current account surplus will reduce excess global imbalances—a positive development for global stability."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Drivers of the shrinking current account surplus",
      "content": "- Rebalancing of the Chinese economy away from investment toward consumption.\n- Appreciation of the real effective exchange rate toward equilibrium.\n- Increase in outbound tourism.\n- Moderation in goods surplus reflecting market saturation and China’s faster growth compared with trading partners.\n- Cyclical factors provided support in 2018, but the predominant forces are structural."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Global implications and country‑level effects",
      "content": "- The decline in China’s surplus has lowered global imbalances.\n- Effects vary across countries:\n  - Korea: trade balance improved vis-à-vis China.\n  - Germany: trade balance improved vis-à-vis China.\n  - Brazil: trade balance improved vis-à-vis China.\n  - Japan: trade balance deteriorated vis-à-vis China.\n  - India: trade balance deteriorated vis-à-vis China.\n  - Indonesia: trade balance deteriorated vis-à-vis China."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy recommendations",
      "content": "- Focus on continued rebalancing to sustain the shift toward domestic demand.\n- Continue opening the economy to ensure excessive surpluses do not return.\n- Prepare the economy and the financial system to handle more volatile capital flows."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Outlook",
      "content": "- The trend decline in China’s current account surplus is expected to continue unless structural drivers reverse.\n- Ongoing declines would contribute to lower global imbalances and enhanced global stability.\n\nSource: People’s Republic of China: Selected Issues (IMF Staff Country Report).\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- People’s Republic of China: Selected Issues; IMF Country Report No. 19/274; July 12, 2019\n  - People’s Republic of China: Selected Issues; IMF Country Report No. 19/274; July 12, 2019 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - People’s Republic of China: Selected Issues; IMF Country Report No. 19/274; July 12, 2019 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}"
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "[Markdown version](/en/publications/cr/issues/2019/08/15/peoples-republic-of-china-selected-issues-48593/index.md)",
    "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/cr/issues/2019/08/15/peoples-republic-of-china-selected-issues-48593/index.json)",
    "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/cr/issues/2019/08/15/peoples-republic-of-china-selected-issues-48593/bundle-manifest.json)",
    "Published: August 23, 2019",
    "Series: IMF Staff Country Reports",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513511252.002",
    "The paper focuses on the drivers, implications and outlook for China’s shrinking current account surplus.",
    "Although cyclical factors helped in 2018, the trend decline has been largely structural.",
    "Further declines in the current account surplus will reduce excess global imbalances—a positive development for global stability.",
    "Rebalancing of the Chinese economy away from investment toward consumption.",
    "Appreciation of the real effective exchange rate toward equilibrium.",
    "Increase in outbound tourism.",
    "Moderation in goods surplus reflecting market saturation and China’s faster growth compared with trading partners.",
    "Cyclical factors provided support in 2018, but the predominant forces are structural.",
    "The decline in China’s surplus has lowered global imbalances.",
    "Effects vary across countries:",
    "Focus on continued rebalancing to sustain the shift toward domestic demand.",
    "Continue opening the economy to ensure excessive surpluses do not return.",
    "Prepare the economy and the financial system to handle more volatile capital flows.",
    "The trend decline in China’s current account surplus is expected to continue unless structural drivers reverse.",
    "Ongoing declines would contribute to lower global imbalances and enhanced global stability.",
    "**People’s Republic of China: Selected Issues; IMF Country Report No. 19/274; July 12, 2019**"
  ],
  "related": [
    {
      "title": "People’s Republic of China: Selected Issues; IMF Country Report No. 19/274; July 12, 2019",
      "role": "document",
      "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2019/1chnea2019004.pdf",
      "summary": {
        "path": "/-/media/files/publications/cr/2019/1chnea2019004.pdf.md",
        "mime": "text/markdown"
      },
      "binary": {
        "path": "/-/media/files/publications/cr/2019/1chnea2019004.pdf",
        "mime": "application/pdf"
      }
    }
  ],
  "alternates": {
    "markdown": "/en/publications/cr/issues/2019/08/15/peoples-republic-of-china-selected-issues-48593/index.md",
    "json": "/en/publications/cr/issues/2019/08/15/peoples-republic-of-china-selected-issues-48593/index.json",
    "bundleManifest": "/en/publications/cr/issues/2019/08/15/peoples-republic-of-china-selected-issues-48593/bundle-manifest.json"
  },
  "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-12T15:10:56.247Z"
}