{
  "title": "Jordan: Technical Assistance Report-Forecasting Framework for Currency in Circulation",
  "publication": "IMF Staff Country Reports, April 7, 2022",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/cr/issues/2022/04/07/jordan-technical-assistance-report-forecasting-framework-for-currency-in-circulation-516259",
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  "summary": "The currency in circulation forecasting model presently used by the Central Bank of Jordan is aligned with international practices and provides a solid basis for liquidity management.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary and key finding",
      "content": "- The currency in circulation forecasting model presently used by the Central Bank of Jordan is aligned with international practices and provides a solid basis for liquidity management.\n- The central bank uses an Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model with many indicator variables to model binary seasonality and to capture special events.\n- The ARIMA model is fitted on daily currency in circulation data using a standard maximum likelihood estimator.\n- This ARIMA approach is aligned with the models traditionally used by central banks in emerging and middle-income countries."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Model specification and methodology",
      "content": "- Model type: Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA).\n- Additional features: Many indicator variables to model binary seasonality and to capture special events.\n- Estimation method: Standard maximum likelihood estimator.\n- Data frequency: Daily currency in circulation data."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Relevance and alignment with practice",
      "content": "- Alignment: The approach is consistent with international practices and with models traditionally used by central banks in emerging and middle-income countries.\n- Policy application: Provides a solid basis for liquidity management at the Central Bank of Jordan."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Publication and document metadata",
      "content": "- Publication date: April 7, 2022\n- Pages: 38\n- Volume: 2022\n- Issue: 101\n- Series: Country Report No. 2022/101\n- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400205972.002\n- Stock No: 1JOREA2022002\n- ISBN: 9798400205972\n- ISSN: 1934-7685\n- Subjects: Central banks; Currency issuance; Economic forecasting; International organization; Monetary base; Monetary policy; Money; Open market operations\n- Keywords: ARIMA model; Currency issuance; Global; hierarchy forecasting; IMF team; Monetary base; moving average; Open market operations; staff level agreement\n\nInternational Monetary Fund. Jordan: Technical Assistance Report-Forecasting Framework for Currency in Circulation (IMF Staff Country Reports 2022, 101).\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- 1jorea2022002\n  - 1jorea2022002 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 1jorea2022002 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}"
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    "Published: April 7, 2022",
    "Series: IMF Staff Country Reports",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400205972.002",
    "The currency in circulation forecasting model presently used by the Central Bank of Jordan is aligned with international practices and provides a solid basis for liquidity management.",
    "The central bank uses an Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model with many indicator variables to model binary seasonality and to capture special events.",
    "The ARIMA model is fitted on daily currency in circulation data using a standard maximum likelihood estimator.",
    "This ARIMA approach is aligned with the models traditionally used by central banks in emerging and middle-income countries.",
    "Model type: Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA).",
    "Additional features: Many indicator variables to model binary seasonality and to capture special events.",
    "Estimation method: Standard maximum likelihood estimator.",
    "Data frequency: Daily currency in circulation data.",
    "Alignment: The approach is consistent with international practices and with models traditionally used by central banks in emerging and middle-income countries.",
    "Policy application: Provides a solid basis for liquidity management at the Central Bank of Jordan.",
    "Publication date: April 7, 2022",
    "Pages: 38",
    "Volume: 2022",
    "Issue: 101",
    "Series: Country Report No. 2022/101",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400205972.002",
    "Stock No: 1JOREA2022002",
    "ISBN: 9798400205972",
    "ISSN: 1934-7685",
    "Subjects: Central banks; Currency issuance; Economic forecasting; International organization; Monetary base; Monetary policy; Money; Open market operations",
    "Keywords: ARIMA model; Currency issuance; Global; hierarchy forecasting; IMF team; Monetary base; moving average; Open market operations; staff level agreement",
    "**1jorea2022002**"
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