{
  "title": "Armenia: Technical Assistance Report-Quantifying Fiscal Risks from Climate Change",
  "publication": "IMF Staff Country Reports, October 26, 2022",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/cr/issues/2022/10/25/armenia-technical-assistance-report-quantifying-fiscal-risks-from-climate-change-525059",
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  "summary": "Armenia is facing considerable fiscal risks from climate change due to increasing and highly variable temperatures. This report provides guidance on how to quantify those risks over the long term, using an empirical approach to identify the potential impact of a range of temperature scenarios on GDP",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Overview",
      "content": "- Armenia faces considerable fiscal risks from climate change due to increasing and highly variable temperatures.\n- The report provides guidance on how to quantify those risks over the long term using an empirical approach to identify the potential impact of a range of temperature scenarios on GDP and the public finances.\n- Publication date: October 26, 2022."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key findings",
      "content": "- An extreme unmitigated temperature scenario that incorporates higher year to year variability could reduce GDP by 18 percent relative to baseline.\n- That extreme scenario could lead to an unsustainable public debt trajectory by 2070.\n- The state’s balance sheet has particular exposures to climate change through:\n  - SOE (state-owned enterprises)\n  - PPP (public-private partnership) projects\n  - The government’s lending portfolio in the energy, water and transport sectors"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Methodology and scope",
      "content": "- Uses an empirical approach to quantify long-term fiscal risks from a range of temperature scenarios.\n- Focuses on the transmission of temperature variations to GDP and public finances over the long term.\n- Emphasizes temperature variance as a key driver of fiscal risk in Armenia."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Fiscal and sectoral exposures",
      "content": "- Explicitly identifies exposures on the state balance sheet via:\n  - SOE contingent liabilities and vulnerabilities\n  - PPP climate change risk exposure\n  - Lending portfolios concentrated in energy, water, and transport sectors"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy implications and recommendations (implied by report focus)",
      "content": "- Quantification of climate-related fiscal risks is necessary to assess long-term debt sustainability.\n- Monitoring and managing exposures in SOEs, PPPs, and sectoral lending portfolios (energy, water, transport) is critical to limit fiscal vulnerabilities.\n- Incorporating temperature variability and extreme unmitigated scenarios into fiscal planning can inform adaptation and mitigation priorities.\n\nInternational Monetary Fund. \"Armenia: Technical Assistance Report-Quantifying Fiscal Risks from Climate Change\" (October 26, 2022).\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- 1armea2022003\n  - 1armea2022003 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 1armea2022003 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}"
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    "Published: October 26, 2022",
    "Series: IMF Staff Country Reports",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400224140.002",
    "Armenia faces considerable fiscal risks from climate change due to increasing and highly variable temperatures.",
    "The report provides guidance on how to quantify those risks over the long term using an empirical approach to identify the potential impact of a range of temperature scenarios on GDP and the public finances.",
    "Publication date: October 26, 2022.",
    "An extreme unmitigated temperature scenario that incorporates higher year to year variability could reduce GDP by 18 percent relative to baseline.",
    "That extreme scenario could lead to an unsustainable public debt trajectory by 2070.",
    "The state’s balance sheet has particular exposures to climate change through:",
    "Uses an empirical approach to quantify long-term fiscal risks from a range of temperature scenarios.",
    "Focuses on the transmission of temperature variations to GDP and public finances over the long term.",
    "Emphasizes temperature variance as a key driver of fiscal risk in Armenia.",
    "Explicitly identifies exposures on the state balance sheet via:",
    "Quantification of climate-related fiscal risks is necessary to assess long-term debt sustainability.",
    "Monitoring and managing exposures in SOEs, PPPs, and sectoral lending portfolios (energy, water, transport) is critical to limit fiscal vulnerabilities.",
    "Incorporating temperature variability and extreme unmitigated scenarios into fiscal planning can inform adaptation and mitigation priorities.",
    "**1armea2022003**"
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