## Belize: Selected Issues

_IMF Staff Country Reports, May 11, 2023_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Belize: Selected Issues](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/cr/issues/2023/05/11/belize-selected-issues-533291)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/publications/cr/issues/2023/05/11/belize-selected-issues-533291/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/cr/issues/2023/05/11/belize-selected-issues-533291/index.json)
- [Bundle manifest](/en/publications/cr/issues/2023/05/11/belize-selected-issues-533291/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Published: May 11, 2023
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400242281.002

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### Main findings on inflation dynamics
- The paper studies inflation dynamics in Belize with the goal of quantifying the role of external and domestic factors in the recent inflationary episode and projecting inflation going forward.
- A Principal Component Analysis (PCA) applied to inflation data of several countries finds that global factors have contributed substantially to both the historical variation and the recent surge in Belize’s inflation.
- Global factors explain most of the recent surge in inflation in Belize and are projected to reduce inflation going forward.
- An estimated Phillips curve finds that external factors, proxied by food and fuel prices and US inflation, have been a key driver in the surge in Belize’s inflation during the last two years.
- The estimation results show that external factors have significant effects on Belize’s inflation.

### Methodology and indicators used
- Principal Component Analysis (PCA) on multi-country inflation series to extract global factors.
- Phillips curve estimation for Belize incorporating:
  - food prices (proxy for external food-price shocks),
  - fuel prices (proxy for external energy shocks),
  - US inflation (proxy for foreign inflationary pressure).

### Policy-relevant implications (from findings)
- Because global factors explain most of the recent inflation surge, domestic policy responses should account for significant externally driven inflationary pressures.
- Projections indicate that global factors are expected to reduce inflation going forward, implying a potential easing of externally driven inflationary pressure over the projection horizon.

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## Content in this bundle

- **Belize: Selected Issues; IMF Country Report No. 23/165; April 18, 2023**
  - [Belize: Selected Issues; IMF Country Report No. 23/165; April 18, 2023 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/cr/2023/english/1blzea2023002.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Belize: Selected Issues; IMF Country Report No. 23/165; April 18, 2023 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/cr/2023/english/1blzea2023002.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/cr/issues/2023/05/11/belize-selected-issues-533291_