{
  "title": "Portugal: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report",
  "publication": "IMF Staff Country Reports, June 22, 2023",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/cr/issues/2023/06/21/portugal-2023-article-iv-consultation-press-release-and-staff-report-535040",
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  "summary": "This 2023 Article IV Consultation with Portugal discusses that the economy sustained its dynamic recovery from the pandemic into 2022. Growth is projected to soften for the rest of the year to average 2.6 percent in 2023 and 1.8 percent in 2024.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Overview",
      "content": "- The economy sustained its dynamic recovery from the pandemic into 2022.\n- Growth is projected to soften to average 2.6 percent in 2023 and 1.8 percent in 2024.\n- Inflation is expected to continue to ease over 2023 but remain above 2 percent in the near term.\n- The current account deficit is expected to narrow as terms-of-trade normalize and external demand strengthens.\n- The banking system and household and corporate sectors have been resilient to recent shocks so far.\n- Tighter financial conditions, amid a buoyant housing market, have increased financial risks.\n- A stronger medium-term fiscal effort relative to the baseline, comprising both revenue and expenditure measures, would build fiscal space, mitigate debt-related risks further, and improve resilience to contingency risks.\n- Structural policies should continue focusing on boosting productivity growth."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Macroeconomic outlook and key projections",
      "content": "- Growth:\n  - 2023: 2.6 percent (average)\n  - 2024: 1.8 percent (average)\n- Inflation:\n  - Expected to ease over 2023\n  - Expected to remain above 2 percent in the near term\n- External sector:\n  - Current account deficit expected to narrow as terms-of-trade normalize and external demand strengthens"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Financial sector resilience and risks",
      "content": "- Resilience:\n  - Banking system, households, and corporate sectors have shown resilience to recent shocks so far\n- Emerging risks:\n  - Tighter financial conditions are increasing vulnerability\n  - Buoyant housing market has raised financial risks"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Fiscal policy assessment and recommendations",
      "content": "- Assessment:\n  - Debt-related risks warrant further mitigation through fiscal consolidation efforts\n- Recommendation:\n  - Implement a stronger medium-term fiscal effort relative to the baseline\n    - Combine revenue measures and expenditure measures to build fiscal space\n    - Aim to improve resilience to contingency risks"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Structural policy priorities",
      "content": "- Continue focusing on boosting productivity growth through structural reforms\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- 1prtea2023001\n  - 1prtea2023001 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 1prtea2023001 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}"
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    "Published: June 22, 2023",
    "Series: IMF Staff Country Reports",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400246050.002",
    "The economy sustained its dynamic recovery from the pandemic into 2022.",
    "Growth is projected to soften to average 2.6 percent in 2023 and 1.8 percent in 2024.",
    "Inflation is expected to continue to ease over 2023 but remain above 2 percent in the near term.",
    "The current account deficit is expected to narrow as terms-of-trade normalize and external demand strengthens.",
    "The banking system and household and corporate sectors have been resilient to recent shocks so far.",
    "Tighter financial conditions, amid a buoyant housing market, have increased financial risks.",
    "A stronger medium-term fiscal effort relative to the baseline, comprising both revenue and expenditure measures, would build fiscal space, mitigate debt-related risks further, and improve resilience to contingency risks.",
    "Structural policies should continue focusing on boosting productivity growth.",
    "Growth:",
    "Inflation:",
    "External sector:",
    "Resilience:",
    "Emerging risks:",
    "Assessment:",
    "Recommendation:",
    "Continue focusing on boosting productivity growth through structural reforms",
    "**1prtea2023001**"
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