{
  "title": "Iraq: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Iraq",
  "publication": "IMF Staff Country Reports, May 16, 2024",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/cr/issues/2024/05/15/iraq-2024-article-iv-consultation-press-release-staff-report-and-statement-by-the-executive-549028",
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  "summary": "The 2024 Article IV Consultation highlights that domestic stability has improved since the new government took office in October 2022, facilitating the passage of Iraq’s first three-year budget, which entailed a large fiscal expansion starting in 2023.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Domestic stability and budgetary developments",
      "content": "- Domestic stability has improved since the new government took office in October 2022, facilitating the passage of Iraq’s first three-year budget.\n- The three-year budget entailed a large fiscal expansion starting in 2023.\n- This ongoing fiscal expansion is expected to boost growth in 2024, while increasing vulnerability to oil price fluctuations."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Macroeconomic trade-offs and risks",
      "content": "- The fiscal expansion is projected to come at the expense of a further deterioration of fiscal and external accounts.\n- Without policy adjustment, the risk of medium-term sovereign debt stress is high and external stability risks could emerge.\n- Key downside risks include much lower oil prices or a spread of the conflict in Gaza and Israel."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy priorities and recommendations",
      "content": "- A fiscal adjustment is needed to stabilize debt over the medium term while protecting critical social and capital spending.\n- Large savings can be attained from containing the outsized public wage bill.\n- Policy measures aimed at mobilizing additional non-oil revenues are recommended to bolster fiscal space.\n- Private sector development and economic diversification are crucial to ensure long-term external sustainability and foster private job creation."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Analytical focus areas highlighted by the report",
      "content": "- Assessment of the fiscal stance and public debt risks under ongoing fiscal expansion.\n- Vulnerability analysis to oil price fluctuations and regional conflict spillovers.\n- Options for revenue mobilization, public wage containment, and protection of priority spending.\n- Structural reforms to support private sector development and economic diversification.\n\nInternational Monetary Fund. \"Iraq: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Iraq\"\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- 1. Economic Developments, 2015–23\n  - 1. Economic Developments, 2015–23 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 1. Economic Developments, 2015–23 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}"
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    "Published: May 16, 2024",
    "Series: IMF Staff Country Reports",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400275357.002",
    "Domestic stability has improved since the new government took office in October 2022, facilitating the passage of Iraq’s first three-year budget.",
    "The three-year budget entailed a large fiscal expansion starting in 2023.",
    "This ongoing fiscal expansion is expected to boost growth in 2024, while increasing vulnerability to oil price fluctuations.",
    "The fiscal expansion is projected to come at the expense of a further deterioration of fiscal and external accounts.",
    "Without policy adjustment, the risk of medium-term sovereign debt stress is high and external stability risks could emerge.",
    "Key downside risks include much lower oil prices or a spread of the conflict in Gaza and Israel.",
    "A fiscal adjustment is needed to stabilize debt over the medium term while protecting critical social and capital spending.",
    "Large savings can be attained from containing the outsized public wage bill.",
    "Policy measures aimed at mobilizing additional non-oil revenues are recommended to bolster fiscal space.",
    "Private sector development and economic diversification are crucial to ensure long-term external sustainability and foster private job creation.",
    "Assessment of the fiscal stance and public debt risks under ongoing fiscal expansion.",
    "Vulnerability analysis to oil price fluctuations and regional conflict spillovers.",
    "Options for revenue mobilization, public wage containment, and protection of priority spending.",
    "Structural reforms to support private sector development and economic diversification.",
    "**1. Economic Developments, 2015–23**"
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