{
  "title": "Guatemala: Selected Issues",
  "publication": "IMF Staff Country Reports, August 5, 2024",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/cr/issues/2024/08/02/guatemala-selected-issues-552891",
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  "summary": "This Selected Issues paper explores effects of social unrest in Guatemala. The paper estimates the effects of social unrest on Guatemala’s economy from 2001 to 2023, using the monthly Reported Social Unrest Index as a measure of social unrest.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Overview and objective",
      "content": "- Explores effects of social unrest in Guatemala.\n- Period analyzed: 2001 to 2023.\n- Measure of social unrest used: monthly Reported Social Unrest Index."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Methodology",
      "content": "- Empirical model estimated on monthly data to identify effects of unrest episodes at higher frequencies than many cross-country studies.\n- Controls: an extensive set, including controls for future social unrest shocks autocorrelations."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key findings and statistics",
      "content": "- Estimations suggest no effects of social unrest episodes on the main external sector variables.\n- Empirical evidence suggests little to no impact of social unrest in Guatemala.\n- Contrary to Hadzi-Vaskov et al. (2023), effects on the real, monetary, financial, and external sectors are characterized as mild, limited, and temporary if not negligible.\n- Results suggest that Guatemala is resilient to unrest shocks at business-cycle frequencies, even of considerable magnitude.\n- Results are robust to different specifications."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Robustness and limitations",
      "content": "- Strength: exploiting monthly data allows disentangling unrest episode effects at higher frequencies.\n- Limitation: lack of cross-country dimensionality in the analysis.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Guatemala: Selected Issues; IMF Country Report No. 24/267; July 8, 2024\n  - Guatemala: Selected Issues; IMF Country Report No. 24/267; July 8, 2024 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Guatemala: Selected Issues; IMF Country Report No. 24/267; July 8, 2024 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}"
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    "Published: August 5, 2024",
    "Series: IMF Staff Country Reports",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400287459.002",
    "Period analyzed: 2001 to 2023.",
    "Measure of social unrest used: monthly Reported Social Unrest Index.",
    "Empirical model estimated on monthly data to identify effects of unrest episodes at higher frequencies than many cross-country studies.",
    "Controls: an extensive set, including controls for future social unrest shocks autocorrelations.",
    "Estimations suggest no effects of social unrest episodes on the main external sector variables.",
    "Empirical evidence suggests little to no impact of social unrest in Guatemala.",
    "Contrary to Hadzi-Vaskov et al. (2023), effects on the real, monetary, financial, and external sectors are characterized as mild, limited, and temporary if not negligible.",
    "Results suggest that Guatemala is resilient to unrest shocks at business-cycle frequencies, even of considerable magnitude.",
    "Results are robust to different specifications.",
    "Strength: exploiting monthly data allows disentangling unrest episode effects at higher frequencies.",
    "Limitation: lack of cross-country dimensionality in the analysis.",
    "**Guatemala: Selected Issues; IMF Country Report No. 24/267; July 8, 2024**"
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