{
  "title": "Brunei Darussalam: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report",
  "publication": "IMF Staff Country Reports, September 24, 2024",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/cr/issues/2024/09/24/brunei-darussalam-2024-article-iv-consultation-press-release-and-staff-report-555551",
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  "summary": "The 2024 Article IV Consultation highlights that Brunei faces complex diversification challenges while it continues to contend with a protracted recovery since the pandemic.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Overview",
      "content": "- The 2024 Article IV Consultation highlights that Brunei faces complex diversification challenges while it continues to contend with a protracted recovery since the pandemic.\n- Real gross domestic product has rebounded moderately, driven mainly by the non-oil and gas (O&G) sector and earlier than expected supply from a new O&G field in Q4 2023.\n- The recovery is expected to continue, with growth strengthening in 2024 given the increase in O&G production, including from new fields.\n- Inflation is projected to remain unchanged.\n- Fiscal and external balances are expected to stabilize alongside O&G prices."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Growth, output, and inflation",
      "content": "- Moderate rebound in real GDP primarily driven by the non-O&G sector.\n- Earlier than expected supply from a new O&G field arrived in Q4 2023.\n- Growth expected to strengthen in 2024 due to increased O&G production, including from new fields.\n- Inflation projected to remain unchanged."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Fiscal and external outlook",
      "content": "- Fiscal balances are expected to stabilize alongside O&G prices.\n- External balances are likewise expected to stabilize alongside O&G prices.\n- The report emphasizes maintaining a prudent fiscal stance given:\n  - the narrowing output gap,\n  - uncertainty around O&G revenues,\n  - long-term decarbonization trends."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Monetary and financial sector policy",
      "content": "- Brunei’s currency board has served it well.\n- Recommendation: continue to align policy rates with the Monetary Authority of Singapore.\n- Recommendation: closely monitor credit growth.\n- Recommendation: ensure that the foreign loans continue to be invested in high credit-rated assets to help mitigate credit risk."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key policy recommendations (enumerated)",
      "content": "- Maintain a prudent fiscal stance in light of the narrowing output gap, uncertainty around O&G revenues, and long-term decarbonization trends.\n- Continue to align policy rates with the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the currency board arrangement.\n- Closely monitor credit growth.\n- Ensure foreign loans are invested in high credit-rated assets to mitigate credit risk.\n\nSource: Brunei Darussalam: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report (September 24, 2024).\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- 1brnea2024001 Print Pdf\n  - 1brnea2024001 Print Pdf (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 1brnea2024001 Print Pdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}"
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    "Published: September 24, 2024",
    "Series: IMF Staff Country Reports",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400288722.002",
    "The 2024 Article IV Consultation highlights that Brunei faces complex diversification challenges while it continues to contend with a protracted recovery since the pandemic.",
    "Real gross domestic product has rebounded moderately, driven mainly by the non-oil and gas (O&G) sector and earlier than expected supply from a new O&G field in Q4 2023.",
    "The recovery is expected to continue, with growth strengthening in 2024 given the increase in O&G production, including from new fields.",
    "Inflation is projected to remain unchanged.",
    "Fiscal and external balances are expected to stabilize alongside O&G prices.",
    "Moderate rebound in real GDP primarily driven by the non-O&G sector.",
    "Earlier than expected supply from a new O&G field arrived in Q4 2023.",
    "Growth expected to strengthen in 2024 due to increased O&G production, including from new fields.",
    "Inflation projected to remain unchanged.",
    "Fiscal balances are expected to stabilize alongside O&G prices.",
    "External balances are likewise expected to stabilize alongside O&G prices.",
    "The report emphasizes maintaining a prudent fiscal stance given:",
    "Brunei’s currency board has served it well.",
    "Recommendation: continue to align policy rates with the Monetary Authority of Singapore.",
    "Recommendation: closely monitor credit growth.",
    "Recommendation: ensure that the foreign loans continue to be invested in high credit-rated assets to help mitigate credit risk.",
    "Maintain a prudent fiscal stance in light of the narrowing output gap, uncertainty around O&G revenues, and long-term decarbonization trends.",
    "Continue to align policy rates with the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the currency board arrangement.",
    "Closely monitor credit growth.",
    "Ensure foreign loans are invested in high credit-rated assets to mitigate credit risk.",
    "**1brnea2024001 Print Pdf**"
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