{
  "title": "Vietnam: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Vietnam",
  "publication": "IMF Staff Country Reports, September 27, 2024",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/cr/issues/2024/09/27/vietnam-2024-article-iv-consultation-press-release-staff-report-and-statement-by-the-555679",
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  "summary": "The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that in the challenging year of 2023, the Vietnamese economy grew by 5 percent thanks to determined actions by the government. The economy was hit by turbulence in the real estate sector, financial distress, and a significant drop in exports.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Macroeconomic performance and near-term projection",
      "content": "- 2023 growth: \"the Vietnamese economy grew by 5 percent\" amid challenging conditions.\n- 2024 projection: \"Economic growth is projected to recover to 6.1 percent in 2024\", supported by:\n  - \"continued strong external demand\"\n  - \"resilient foreign direct investment\"\n  - \"accommodative policies\"\n- Domestic demand: \"Domestic demand growth is expected to recover gradually as corporates navigate through high debt levels\".\n- Real estate: \"the real estate sector will only fully recover over the medium term\"."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Inflation and monetary stance",
      "content": "- Inflation outlook: \"Inflation is expected to hover around the State Bank of Vietnam’s target of 4–4.5 percent in the year of 2024\".\n- Monetary policy implication: accommodative policies are supporting the near-term recovery while inflation remains near the stated target."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Financial sector and risks",
      "content": "- Key headwinds in 2023: \"turbulence in the real estate sector, financial distress, and a significant drop in exports\".\n- Corporate sector risks: high corporate debt is constraining the pace of domestic demand recovery and implies a gradual deleveraging process.\n- Fiscal–monetary interaction: \"The fiscal stimulus is helping sustain domestic demand, including investment, which facilitates private sector deleveraging.\"\n- Contingent fiscal response: \"fiscal support may need to be scaled down if there was a large inflation surprise.\""
    },
    {
      "heading": "Fiscal policy and governance",
      "content": "- Short-term role: fiscal stimulus is currently supporting demand and investment.\n- Medium-term recommendation: \"An upgraded fiscal framework would help improve public policies and manage challenges ahead.\"\n- Policy trade-offs: balancing continued fiscal support for recovery against inflation risks and fiscal sustainability."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Structural and medium-term priorities",
      "content": "- Growth challenge: \"Sustaining high medium-term economic growth, amidst demographic and climate headwinds, requires broader structural reforms\".\n- Priority reform areas:\n  - \"boost productivity\"\n  - \"address climate challenges\"\n  - \"strengthen governance\""
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subjects and keywords covered",
      "content": "- Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT)\n- Credit\n- Crime\n- Financial sector policy and analysis\n- Financial sector stability\n- Inflation\n- Money\n- Prices\n- Additional keywords listed: authorities of Viet Nam, Global, IMF-World Bank Financial Sector Assessment Program, IMF's Institute for Capacity Development, SBV management, USD trading band\n\nSource: Vietnam: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Vietnam\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Credit, Economic Growth, and Financial Risks\n  - Credit, Economic Growth, and Financial Risks (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Credit, Economic Growth, and Financial Risks (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}"
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    "Published: September 27, 2024",
    "Series: IMF Staff Country Reports",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400290404.002",
    "2023 growth: \"the Vietnamese economy grew by 5 percent\" amid challenging conditions.",
    "2024 projection: \"Economic growth is projected to recover to 6.1 percent in 2024\", supported by:",
    "Domestic demand: \"Domestic demand growth is expected to recover gradually as corporates navigate through high debt levels\".",
    "Real estate: \"the real estate sector will only fully recover over the medium term\".",
    "Monetary policy implication: accommodative policies are supporting the near-term recovery while inflation remains near the stated target.",
    "Key headwinds in 2023: \"turbulence in the real estate sector, financial distress, and a significant drop in exports\".",
    "Corporate sector risks: high corporate debt is constraining the pace of domestic demand recovery and implies a gradual deleveraging process.",
    "Fiscal–monetary interaction: \"The fiscal stimulus is helping sustain domestic demand, including investment, which facilitates private sector deleveraging.\"",
    "Contingent fiscal response: \"fiscal support may need to be scaled down if there was a large inflation surprise.\"",
    "Short-term role: fiscal stimulus is currently supporting demand and investment.",
    "Medium-term recommendation: \"An upgraded fiscal framework would help improve public policies and manage challenges ahead.\"",
    "Policy trade-offs: balancing continued fiscal support for recovery against inflation risks and fiscal sustainability.",
    "Growth challenge: \"Sustaining high medium-term economic growth, amidst demographic and climate headwinds, requires broader structural reforms\".",
    "Priority reform areas:",
    "Additional keywords listed: authorities of Viet Nam, Global, IMF-World Bank Financial Sector Assessment Program, IMF's Institute for Capacity Development, SBV management, USD trading band",
    "**Credit, Economic Growth, and Financial Risks**"
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