## Bolivia: 2025 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bolivia

_IMF Staff Country Reports, June 2, 2025_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Bolivia: 2025 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bolivia](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/cr/issues/2025/06/02/bolivia-2025-article-iv-consultation-press-release-staff-report-and-statement-by-the-567384)

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## Bibliographic details
- Published: June 2, 2025
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229012669.002

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### Economic performance and near-term outlook
- Real gross domestic product growth moderated to 2.1 percent in the first three quarters of 2024.
- The slowdown was driven by:
  - a decline in hydrocarbons production,
  - a slowdown in services activity,
  - a drop in soy crops and related manufacturing due to “El Niño” effects.
- The macro-economic outlook under current policies is assessed as unsustainable.

### External position and reserves
- Usable foreign exchange reserves are expected to remain close to zero.
- Even if the central bank is able to liquefy its remaining gold reserves through collateralized borrowing, as envisaged in the 2025 budget, usable reserves would remain close to zero.
- A range of potential external or domestic shocks could trigger:
  - capital outflows,
  - a faster depreciation of the parallel exchange rate,
  - higher inflation,
  - reduced growth,
  - and, ultimately, a disorderly adjustment.

### Fiscal outlook and required consolidation
- At the core of any policy plan must be a credible, multi-year fiscal consolidation.
- Required policy measures include:
  - a phase out of fuel subsidies,
  - a lower wage bill,
  - a rationalization of capital spending.

### Structural reforms and competitiveness
- Urgent efforts are needed to:
  - remove supply-side constraints to growth,
  - lessen informality,
  - strengthen governance and regulatory frameworks,
  - improve public investment management,
  - foster competitiveness.

### Risks and scenarios
- Rising risks of a balance of payments and fiscal crisis under current policies.
- Potential shock transmission channels highlighted:
  - capital outflows,
  - parallel exchange rate depreciation,
  - inflation acceleration,
  - output losses,
  - disorderly macroeconomic adjustment.

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/cr/issues/2025/06/02/bolivia-2025-article-iv-consultation-press-release-staff-report-and-statement-by-the-567384_