{
  "title": "Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe: Selected Issues",
  "publication": "IMF Staff Country Reports, August 8, 2025",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/cr/issues/2025/08/08/democratic-republic-of-so-tom-and-prncipe-selected-issues-569496",
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  "summary": "This Selected Issues paper examines the drivers of inflation in São Tomé and Príncipe and develops a model for forecasting it.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary and key findings",
      "content": "- The paper examines the drivers of inflation in São Tomé and Príncipe and develops a model for forecasting it.\n- Inflation significantly declined under the peg regime, but recent surges in global food and energy prices have exerted substantial upward pressure on inflation.\n- Both supply and demand factors contribute to inflation in the country."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Drivers of inflation",
      "content": "- Supply-side factors:\n  - Inflation inertia.\n  - Import food prices.\n  - Global or regional crises.\n- Demand-side factors:\n  - Factors associated with weakened macroeconomic discipline in the leadup to elections."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Modeling and forecasting",
      "content": "- The paper develops a model for forecasting inflation in São Tomé and Príncipe (details in the full Selected Issues paper)."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy recommendations",
      "content": "- Comprehensive policy mix must address both supply and demand factors.\n- Demand-side measures:\n  - Maintain coherent macroeconomic policies.\n  - Ongoing fiscal consolidation.\n  - Manage public debt levels to create a more stable economic environment.\n- Supply-side measures:\n  - Increase local food production to reduce reliance on imported food.\n  - Improve processing of primary agricultural products to add value and reduce waste, thereby making local food more competitive against imports."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subject areas and keywords",
      "content": "- Subject: Asset and liability management, Environment, Inflation, Infrastructure, Liquidity, Liquidity management, National accounts, Natural disasters, Prices\n- Keywords: forecasting inflation, Global, Inflation, inflation development, inflation structure, Infrastructure, Liquidity, Liquidity management, Natural disasters, São Tomé and Príncipe's vulnerability, Sub-Saharan Africa, vulnerability to natural disasters, West Africa\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- 1stpea2025003-source-pdf\n  - 1stpea2025003-source-pdf (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 1stpea2025003-source-pdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}"
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    "Published: August 8, 2025",
    "Series: IMF Staff Country Reports",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229020435.002",
    "The paper examines the drivers of inflation in São Tomé and Príncipe and develops a model for forecasting it.",
    "Both supply and demand factors contribute to inflation in the country.",
    "Supply-side factors:",
    "Demand-side factors:",
    "The paper develops a model for forecasting inflation in São Tomé and Príncipe (details in the full Selected Issues paper).",
    "Comprehensive policy mix must address both supply and demand factors.",
    "Demand-side measures:",
    "Supply-side measures:",
    "Subject: Asset and liability management, Environment, Inflation, Infrastructure, Liquidity, Liquidity management, National accounts, Natural disasters, Prices",
    "Keywords: forecasting inflation, Global, Inflation, inflation development, inflation structure, Infrastructure, Liquidity, Liquidity management, Natural disasters, São Tomé and Príncipe's vulnerability, Sub-Saharan Africa, vulnerability to natural disasters, West Africa",
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