{
  "title": "Mongolia: 2025 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Alternate Executive Director for Mongolia",
  "publication": "IMF Staff Country Reports, September 15, 2025",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/cr/issues/2025/09/15/mongolia-2025-article-iv-consultation-press-release-staff-report-and-statement-by-the-570413",
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  "summary": "The resource boom is weakening and downside risks to the outlook are rising. In 2023-24, record-high coal exports and robust household and government spending led to buoyant economic activity which, along with fiscal surpluses and successful external debt rollovers, helped reduce vulnerabilities.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Macroeconomic summary and recent developments",
      "content": "- The resource boom that supported strong activity in 2023-24 is weakening.\n- In 2023-24, record-high coal exports and robust household and government spending led to buoyant economic activity and contributed to fiscal surpluses and successful external debt rollovers.\n- With coal exports declining in 2025H1, mainly due to falling prices and increased global uncertainty, the near-term outlook has become less favorable.\n- The new government, formed in June 2025, has signaled its commitment to policy continuity."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Fiscal and monetary dynamics",
      "content": "- Highly expansionary fiscal policy in the recent period contributed to rapid credit growth.\n- Policy rate cuts in 2024, together with expansionary fiscal policy, occurred despite tighter reserve requirements.\n- Inflation rose above the Bank of Mongolia (BOM)’s target band."
    },
    {
      "heading": "External sector and balance-sheet effects",
      "content": "- The surge in imports and a widening current account deficit accompanied the rapid credit expansion.\n- Record-high coal exports in 2023-24 helped reduce vulnerabilities through fiscal surpluses and external debt rollover success.\n- The decline in coal exports in 2025H1 has increased downside risks amid limited policy buffers."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Risks and outlook",
      "content": "- Downside risks to the outlook have increased due to weakening resource sector performance and limited policy space.\n- Global uncertainty and falling commodity prices are key channels for the increased risk to the near-term outlook."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy implications and priorities",
      "content": "- Maintain policy continuity as signaled by the government formed in June 2025 to support stability.\n- Address risks from rapid credit growth and inflation above the BOM’s target band through appropriate macroeconomic policies.\n- Monitor external position closely given the widening current account deficit and the decline in coal export receipts in 2025H1.\n\nSource: Mongolia: 2025 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Alternate Executive Director for Mongolia (IMF), September 15, 2025.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- 1mngea2025001-source-pdf\n  - 1mngea2025001-source-pdf (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 1mngea2025001-source-pdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}"
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    "Published: September 15, 2025",
    "Series: IMF Staff Country Reports",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229025638.002",
    "The resource boom that supported strong activity in 2023-24 is weakening.",
    "In 2023-24, record-high coal exports and robust household and government spending led to buoyant economic activity and contributed to fiscal surpluses and successful external debt rollovers.",
    "With coal exports declining in 2025H1, mainly due to falling prices and increased global uncertainty, the near-term outlook has become less favorable.",
    "The new government, formed in June 2025, has signaled its commitment to policy continuity.",
    "Highly expansionary fiscal policy in the recent period contributed to rapid credit growth.",
    "Policy rate cuts in 2024, together with expansionary fiscal policy, occurred despite tighter reserve requirements.",
    "Inflation rose above the Bank of Mongolia (BOM)’s target band.",
    "The surge in imports and a widening current account deficit accompanied the rapid credit expansion.",
    "Record-high coal exports in 2023-24 helped reduce vulnerabilities through fiscal surpluses and external debt rollover success.",
    "The decline in coal exports in 2025H1 has increased downside risks amid limited policy buffers.",
    "Downside risks to the outlook have increased due to weakening resource sector performance and limited policy space.",
    "Global uncertainty and falling commodity prices are key channels for the increased risk to the near-term outlook.",
    "Maintain policy continuity as signaled by the government formed in June 2025 to support stability.",
    "Address risks from rapid credit growth and inflation above the BOM’s target band through appropriate macroeconomic policies.",
    "Monitor external position closely given the widening current account deficit and the decline in coal export receipts in 2025H1.",
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