{
  "title": "Resilience Amid Structural Transformations: Are Macro Policy Frameworks Fit for Purpose?",
  "publication": "Departmental Papers, August 27, 2026",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/departmental-papers-policy-papers/issues/2026/08/26/resilience-amid-structural-transformations-are-macro-policy-frameworks-fit-for-purpose-576701",
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  "summary": "The post-GFC era has marked a transition from the relative stability of the “Great Moderation” to a more volatile “Great Turbulence,” characterized by structural transformations, frequent shocks, heightened uncertainty, and constrained policy space.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary and central conclusion",
      "content": "- The post-GFC era has marked a transition from the relative stability of the “Great Moderation” to a more volatile “Great Turbulence,” characterized by structural transformations, frequent shocks, heightened uncertainty, and constrained policy space.\n- The paper examines whether existing macroeconomic policy frameworks remain fit for purpose in the face of four major global trends: demographic change, climate change, geoeconomic fragmentation, and artificial intelligence.\n- Conclusion: credible, resilient, and well-coordinated policy frameworks will be essential to preserving domestic and external stability in an increasingly shock-prone world."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Four major global trends analyzed",
      "content": "- Demographic change\n- Climate change\n- Geoeconomic fragmentation\n- Artificial intelligence"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key themes and policy-relevant findings",
      "content": "- Structural transformations and frequent shocks increase volatility and constrain policy space relative to the “Great Moderation” period.\n- Existing macroeconomic policy frameworks face challenges in adapting to:\n  - heightened uncertainty,\n  - more frequent supply shocks,\n  - evolving inflation-output tradeoffs,\n  - changes in fiscal space needs, and\n  - implications of technological change for productivity and labor markets.\n- Effective responses require frameworks that are:\n  - credible,\n  - resilient to shocks,\n  - well-coordinated across policy areas and borders."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subject classifications and keywords (as presented)",
      "content": "- Subject: Artificial intelligence (economics), Economic growth, Economic theory, Fiscal policy, Fiscal space, Inflation, Prices, Structural transformation, Supply shocks, Technology\n- Keywords: artificial intelligence, climate risks, demographic transition, economic policy, fiscal space, geoeconomic fragmentation, inflation outcome, inflation-output tradeoff, macroeconomic stability, monetary policy framework, monetary policy implication, monetary policy response, policy coordination, policy frameworks, structural change, supply shocks\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- rastea\n  - rastea (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - rastea (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/departmental-papers-policy-papers/issues/2026/08/26/resilience-amid-structural-transformations-are-macro-policy-frameworks-fit-for-purpose-576701"
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    "Authors: Diala Al Masri, Ivailo Arsov, Yongquan Cao, Sonali Das, Julia Faltermeier, Anna Ilyina, Benjamin R Kett, Jesper L Linde, Mico Mrkaic, Jeta Menkulasi, Anh D. M. Nguyen, Julia Otten, Jerome Vandenbussche",
    "Published: August 27, 2026",
    "Series: Departmental Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229042925.087",
    "The post-GFC era has marked a transition from the relative stability of the “Great Moderation” to a more volatile “Great Turbulence,” characterized by structural transformations, frequent shocks, heightened uncertainty, and constrained policy space.",
    "The paper examines whether existing macroeconomic policy frameworks remain fit for purpose in the face of four major global trends: demographic change, climate change, geoeconomic fragmentation, and artificial intelligence.",
    "Conclusion: credible, resilient, and well-coordinated policy frameworks will be essential to preserving domestic and external stability in an increasingly shock-prone world.",
    "Demographic change",
    "Climate change",
    "Geoeconomic fragmentation",
    "Artificial intelligence",
    "Structural transformations and frequent shocks increase volatility and constrain policy space relative to the “Great Moderation” period.",
    "Existing macroeconomic policy frameworks face challenges in adapting to:",
    "Effective responses require frameworks that are:",
    "Subject: Artificial intelligence (economics), Economic growth, Economic theory, Fiscal policy, Fiscal space, Inflation, Prices, Structural transformation, Supply shocks, Technology",
    "Keywords: artificial intelligence, climate risks, demographic transition, economic policy, fiscal space, geoeconomic fragmentation, inflation outcome, inflation-output tradeoff, macroeconomic stability, monetary policy framework, monetary policy implication, monetary policy response, policy coordination, policy frameworks, structural change, supply shocks",
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