{
  "title": "The Impact of Climate Change in Southeast Asia",
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  "summary": "Southeast Asia, one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change, is witnessing the world’s biggest jump in greenhouse gas emissions.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Regional vulnerability and observed impacts",
      "content": "- Southeast Asia is described as \"one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change\" with more than 640 million people living in the region.\n- Example: Hoi An, Vietnam — water level rose to 1.6 meters (5.25 feet) during a typhoon; businesses shut down for \"three to four days.\"\n- Average temperatures in Southeast Asia have risen every decade since 1960.\n- Vietnam, Myanmar, the Philippines, and Thailand are among 10 countries in the world most affected by climate change in the past 20 years (Global Climate Risk Index).\n- The World Bank counts Vietnam among five countries most likely to be affected by global warming in the future.\n- Climate-driven shifts reported: tropical diseases (malaria, dengue) moving northward to countries like Lao P.D.R."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Economic impact and sectoral risks",
      "content": "- Asian Development Bank (ADB) estimate: unchecked climate change could shave 11 percent off the region’s GDP by the end of the century; contrasted with a 2009 estimate of a 6.7 percent reduction.\n- ADB and Potsdam Institute study: region could shift to a \"new climate regime\" by the end of the century (coolest summer months warmer than the hottest 1951–1980 summer months).\n- Rice yields in Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam could drop by as much as 50 percent by 2100 from 1990 levels in the absence of technical breakthroughs.\n- Key sectors at risk: agriculture, tourism, and fishing; also impacts on human health and labor productivity."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Emissions trends and energy mix",
      "content": "- While per capita emissions have been low relative to advanced economies, emissions are rising: \"Between 1990 and 2010, emissions of carbon dioxide increased faster in Southeast Asia than anywhere else.\"\n- International Energy Agency (IEA) projection: energy demand will grow as much as 66 percent by 2040.\n- Coal will account for almost 40 percent of the increase as it overtakes natural gas in the energy mix.\n- Indonesia is the world’s fifth-largest coal producer and its second-largest net exporter; Malaysia and Thailand are the eighth- and ninth-largest net importers (IEA data).\n- Vietnam’s coal-power capacity under active development is the third largest in the world after China’s and India’s; Indonesia and the Philippines rank fifth and tenth, respectively (March 2018 report)."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Deforestation, peatlands, and emissions",
      "content": "- Deforestation is identified as \"another major source of greenhouse gases.\"\n- In Indonesia, deforestation accounts for almost half of the country’s emissions—more than fossil fuels.\n- Draining and burning peatlands releases substantial carbon dioxide; smoke from such fires has repeatedly affected neighboring countries.\n- Emissions from the most recent peatland fires in 2015 \"exceeded those of the entire European Union,\" according to Reuters.\n- World Resources Institute: enforcing Indonesia’s 2011 moratorium could eliminate 188 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions each year, \"or about 60 percent of France’s total output in 2016.\""
    },
    {
      "heading": "Urbanization, infrastructure, and localized risks",
      "content": "- Rapid economic growth and urbanization magnify climate impacts: migration to cities increases heat and exposure; construction in floodplains blocks waterways.\n- Example: Da Nang and Hoi An — reservoir management upstream changes river flows; reservoirs overwhelmed by extreme rainfall, leading to downstream floods.\n- An internationally funded $70 million project aims to provide more timely flood warnings for Hoi An residents.\n- Da Nang population forecast: surge to 1.65 million by 2020 from 1 million \"today\" (World Bank estimates).\n- Tourism-related development has contributed to coastal erosion: Hoi An’s Cua Dai Beach shoreline receded by 150 meters in 2004–2012; floodwalls and sandbags are now common."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Coastal exposure, water stress, and food security",
      "content": "- Some 70 percent of Vietnam’s population lives along its 3,200-kilometer coastline and in the low-lying Mekong Delta.\n- The Mekong Delta produces more than half of Vietnam’s rice and other staples and over 60 percent of its shrimp (ADB).\n- Salinity intrusion and prolonged dry spells are highlighted as threats to agriculture in the delta.\n- National coastlines cited: Indonesia 54,700 kilometers; Philippines 36,300 kilometers.\n- In the Philippines, an average of 20 typhoons make landfall yearly, \"with increasing destructiveness.\""
    },
    {
      "heading": "Emission pledges, renewables, and energy access",
      "content": "- ASEAN leaders approved a plan targeting a 23 percent share of renewables in the region’s energy mix by 2025, up from 10 percent in 2015.\n- National pledges (partly or wholly conditional on international funding):\n  - Indonesia: pledged to reduce emissions by 29 percent by 2030; could increase to 41 percent with outside support.\n  - Vietnam: analogous targets of 8 percent and 25 percent.\n  - The Philippines: made only a conditional pledge, of a 70 percent reduction.\n- Even conditional pledges \"will result in higher global warming than envisaged under the Paris Agreement,\" underscoring the need for more ambitious goals.\n- Energy access and fuel use figures:\n  - IEA estimates 65 million Southeast Asians lack electricity.\n  - IEA estimates 250 million use biomass (firewood and animal manure) for cooking fuel.\n- Renewable energy capacity has increased (notably solar and wind) but remains limited; countries remain reliant on fossil fuels."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy conflicts and mitigation options",
      "content": "- Subsidies for petroleum products and electricity intended to protect poorer populations conflict with goals to reduce fossil fuel use; subsidies boost fuel demand and weaken competitiveness of cleaner fuels.\n- ADB-Potsdam Institute study: subsidies are estimated to cost governments more than what it would take to meet the region’s Paris Agreement goals.\n- Given political and practical barriers to subsidy reform and low-carbon technology adoption, preventing deforestation is identified as a cost-effective emissions reduction strategy.\n- Increasing agricultural productivity could reduce the need to clear forests.\n- Incentives highlighted as necessary to spur renewable adoption and efficiency: tax breaks, duty-free imports, preferential loans, easier access to financing."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Emerging opportunities and global links",
      "content": "- Declining costs of solar and wind could boost investment in local manufacturing and improve energy efficiency.\n- Malaysia and Thailand are becoming global players in solar-panel manufacture, aided by Chinese investment.\n- Significant increases in renewable-energy investment have occurred in Southeast Asia since the start of this century, suggesting a potentially large market for renewables if incentives and financing are provided.\n- Quote: \"Policies and recommendations alone are not enough... Businesses need incentives to embrace renewable energy or environmentally friendly technologies, as well as for encouraging reforestation.\" — Phong, ISET-International\n\nSource: The Impact of Climate Change in Southeast Asia, F&D Magazine, September 2018.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- نقطة الغليان\n  - نقطة الغليان (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - نقطة الغليان (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- prakash\n  - prakash (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - prakash (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 沸騰する東南アジア、アーミット・プラカーシュ著、ファイナンス＆ディベロップメント2018年9月号\n  - 沸騰する東南アジア、アーミット・プラカーシュ著、ファイナンス＆ディベロップメント2018年9月号 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 沸騰する東南アジア、アーミット・プラカーシュ著、ファイナンス＆ディベロップメント2018年9月号 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Точка кипения – Финансы и развитие – сентябрь 2018 года\n  - Точка кипения – Финансы и развитие – сентябрь 2018 года (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Точка кипения – Финансы и развитие – сентябрь 2018 года (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- The Impact of Climate Change in Southeast Asia – IMF Finance & Development Magazine | September 2018\n  - The Impact of Climate Change in Southeast Asia – IMF Finance & Development Magazine | September 2018 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - The Impact of Climate Change in Southeast Asia – IMF Finance & Development Magazine | September 2018 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2018/09/southeast-asia-climate-change-and-greenhouse-gas-emissions-prakash"
    }
  ],
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    "Authors: AMIT PRAKASH",
    "Published: September 1, 2018",
    "Southeast Asia is described as \"one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change\" with more than 640 million people living in the region.",
    "Example: Hoi An, Vietnam — water level rose to 1.6 meters (5.25 feet) during a typhoon; businesses shut down for \"three to four days.\"",
    "Average temperatures in Southeast Asia have risen every decade since 1960.",
    "Vietnam, Myanmar, the Philippines, and Thailand are among 10 countries in the world most affected by climate change in the past 20 years (Global Climate Risk Index).",
    "The World Bank counts Vietnam among five countries most likely to be affected by global warming in the future.",
    "Climate-driven shifts reported: tropical diseases (malaria, dengue) moving northward to countries like Lao P.D.R.",
    "Asian Development Bank (ADB) estimate: unchecked climate change could shave 11 percent off the region’s GDP by the end of the century; contrasted with a 2009 estimate of a 6.7 percent reduction.",
    "ADB and Potsdam Institute study: region could shift to a \"new climate regime\" by the end of the century (coolest summer months warmer than the hottest 1951–1980 summer months).",
    "Rice yields in Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam could drop by as much as 50 percent by 2100 from 1990 levels in the absence of technical breakthroughs.",
    "Key sectors at risk: agriculture, tourism, and fishing; also impacts on human health and labor productivity.",
    "While per capita emissions have been low relative to advanced economies, emissions are rising: \"Between 1990 and 2010, emissions of carbon dioxide increased faster in Southeast Asia than anywhere else.\"",
    "International Energy Agency (IEA) projection: energy demand will grow as much as 66 percent by 2040.",
    "Coal will account for almost 40 percent of the increase as it overtakes natural gas in the energy mix.",
    "Indonesia is the world’s fifth-largest coal producer and its second-largest net exporter; Malaysia and Thailand are the eighth- and ninth-largest net importers (IEA data).",
    "Vietnam’s coal-power capacity under active development is the third largest in the world after China’s and India’s; Indonesia and the Philippines rank fifth and tenth, respectively (March 2018 report).",
    "Deforestation is identified as \"another major source of greenhouse gases.\"",
    "In Indonesia, deforestation accounts for almost half of the country’s emissions—more than fossil fuels.",
    "Draining and burning peatlands releases substantial carbon dioxide; smoke from such fires has repeatedly affected neighboring countries.",
    "Emissions from the most recent peatland fires in 2015 \"exceeded those of the entire European Union,\" according to Reuters.",
    "World Resources Institute: enforcing Indonesia’s 2011 moratorium could eliminate 188 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions each year, \"or about 60 percent of France’s total output in 2016.\"",
    "Rapid economic growth and urbanization magnify climate impacts: migration to cities increases heat and exposure; construction in floodplains blocks waterways.",
    "Example: Da Nang and Hoi An — reservoir management upstream changes river flows; reservoirs overwhelmed by extreme rainfall, leading to downstream floods.",
    "An internationally funded $70 million project aims to provide more timely flood warnings for Hoi An residents.",
    "Da Nang population forecast: surge to 1.65 million by 2020 from 1 million \"today\" (World Bank estimates).",
    "Tourism-related development has contributed to coastal erosion: Hoi An’s Cua Dai Beach shoreline receded by 150 meters in 2004–2012; floodwalls and sandbags are now common.",
    "Some 70 percent of Vietnam’s population lives along its 3,200-kilometer coastline and in the low-lying Mekong Delta.",
    "The Mekong Delta produces more than half of Vietnam’s rice and other staples and over 60 percent of its shrimp (ADB).",
    "Salinity intrusion and prolonged dry spells are highlighted as threats to agriculture in the delta.",
    "National coastlines cited: Indonesia 54,700 kilometers; Philippines 36,300 kilometers.",
    "In the Philippines, an average of 20 typhoons make landfall yearly, \"with increasing destructiveness.\"",
    "ASEAN leaders approved a plan targeting a 23 percent share of renewables in the region’s energy mix by 2025, up from 10 percent in 2015.",
    "National pledges (partly or wholly conditional on international funding):",
    "Even conditional pledges \"will result in higher global warming than envisaged under the Paris Agreement,\" underscoring the need for more ambitious goals.",
    "Energy access and fuel use figures:",
    "Renewable energy capacity has increased (notably solar and wind) but remains limited; countries remain reliant on fossil fuels.",
    "Subsidies for petroleum products and electricity intended to protect poorer populations conflict with goals to reduce fossil fuel use; subsidies boost fuel demand and weaken competitiveness of cleaner fuels.",
    "ADB-Potsdam Institute study: subsidies are estimated to cost governments more than what it would take to meet the region’s Paris Agreement goals.",
    "Given political and practical barriers to subsidy reform and low-carbon technology adoption, preventing deforestation is identified as a cost-effective emissions reduction strategy.",
    "Increasing agricultural productivity could reduce the need to clear forests.",
    "Incentives highlighted as necessary to spur renewable adoption and efficiency: tax breaks, duty-free imports, preferential loans, easier access to financing.",
    "Declining costs of solar and wind could boost investment in local manufacturing and improve energy efficiency.",
    "Malaysia and Thailand are becoming global players in solar-panel manufacture, aided by Chinese investment.",
    "Significant increases in renewable-energy investment have occurred in Southeast Asia since the start of this century, suggesting a potentially large market for renewables if incentives and financing are provided.",
    "Quote: \"Policies and recommendations alone are not enough... Businesses need incentives to embrace renewable energy or environmentally friendly technologies, as well as for encouraging reforestation.\" — Phong, ISET-International",
    "**نقطة الغليان**",
    "**prakash**",
    "**沸騰する東南アジア、アーミット・プラカーシュ著、ファイナンス＆ディベロップメント2018年9月号**",
    "**Точка кипения – Финансы и развитие – сентябрь 2018 года**",
    "**The Impact of Climate Change in Southeast Asia – IMF Finance & Development Magazine | September 2018**"
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