{
  "title": "Eastern Europe: The Future of Aging Populations and Economic Growth",
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  "summary": "In Eastern Europe, emigration compounds the problem of aging populations, writes Maria Petrakis. What should EU policymakers do?",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Demographic trends and economic implications",
      "content": "- Nine of the ten fastest-shrinking countries in the world are in eastern Europe, according to United Nations projections.\n- Life expectancy has risen to 74 years from 67 in 1995.\n- GDP per capita has more than doubled since 1995.\n- Between 1995 and 2017, central, eastern, and southeastern European (CESEE) countries lost about 7 percent of their workforce, mostly young and educated workers.\n- The United Nations expects that the population of the region will decline by 12 percent by 2050 as a result of aging and migration.\n- The workforce will fall by a quarter in the same period.\n- IMF research indicates demographic pressures could cost these countries about 1 percent of GDP per year for the next 30 years.\n- Per capita GDP for these countries will still be only 60 percent of western European levels in 2050, up from 52 percent now; without the demographic challenge, it could have been 74 percent."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Drivers of the demographic challenge",
      "content": "- Longer lives, smaller families, and the ease of emigration have combined to exert growing demographic pressure.\n- Emigration of young, skilled professionals has accelerated since the fall of communism in 1989 and has been amplified by EU membership, which eased labor mobility.\n- Mortality and emigration rates in the region are much higher than those in western Europe, exacerbating population decline.\n- Fertility policies face long lags: even if fertility increased immediately, it would be two decades before the working-age population showed a difference."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy responses and country examples",
      "content": "- Family/fertility incentives:\n  - Hungary: women with more than four children have been exempted from income tax; couples requiring fertility treatment will receive it free.\n- Labor force participation and retention:\n  - Increase participation of women in the workforce.\n  - Convince older workers to keep working and provide training so they can remain productive.\n- Improve retention of skilled workers:\n  - Strengthen institutions and improve the overall economic environment and investment climate to deter emigration.\n  - Countries must “offer things in return” to keep young, skilled people, including career opportunities and research funding.\n- Inward migration and firm-level responses:\n  - Firms have used inward migration to fill vacancies: McDonald’s imported 30 workers from Sri Lanka to fill the labor shortage in three of its Bucharest stores as part of a two-year pilot project.\n  - McDonald’s serves about 230,000 customers per day in its 84 restaurants in Romania; it opened four new outlets in 2019 and plans to open another eight in the year following the report.\n  - Private-sector retention strategies: examples include employee amenities and telework options cited by Dacia’s Bucharest operations.\n- Skills and lifelong education:\n  - Emphasize education throughout working lives to adapt to automation and changing skill demands.\n  - Example: Rails Girls Sofia in Bulgaria has trained about 1,000 women in web programming since 2013."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Risks, trade-offs, and priorities",
      "content": "- Automation could free workers for higher-value activities but also push out workers with lower skill levels.\n- Financial incentives to raise birth rates have shown limited effects elsewhere; demographic effects on the workforce are slow to materialize.\n- IMF and regional economists stress that population aging affects health care, social services, and long-term growth prospects—not just public pensions."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key statistics and quotes",
      "content": "- “Population aging concerns more than just public pensions,” — Alasdair Scott, IMF economist.\n- “The world is a highly competitive place,” — Maria Topalova; countries must offer meaningful opportunities to retain talent.\n- Global labor market signal: 54 percent of companies say they struggle to find qualified people for vacancies, the highest rate in a decade (Manpower Group Talent Shortage survey for 2019).\n\nContent from \"Eastern Europe: The Future of Aging Populations and Economic Growth – IMF F&D,\" Maria Petrakis, March 2020.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- الهجرة الجماعية من أوروبا الشرقية\n  - الهجرة الجماعية من أوروبا الشرقية (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - الهجرة الجماعية من أوروبا الشرقية (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- El éxodo de Europa oriental ● Finanzas y Desarrollo ● Marzo de 2020\n  - El éxodo de Europa oriental ● Finanzas y Desarrollo ● Marzo de 2020 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - El éxodo de Europa oriental ● Finanzas y Desarrollo ● Marzo de 2020 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Europe de l’Est : exode vers l’Ouest\n  - Europe de l’Est : exode vers l’Ouest (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Europe de l’Est : exode vers l’Ouest (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Eastern Europe: The Future of Aging Populations and Economic Growth – IMF F&D\n  - Eastern Europe: The Future of Aging Populations and Economic Growth – IMF F&D (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Eastern Europe: The Future of Aging Populations and Economic Growth – IMF F&D (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 东欧移民大潮  - 金融与发展 - 国际货币基金组织季刊 -2020年3月号·第57卷·第1期\n  - 东欧移民大潮  - 金融与发展 - 国际货币基金组织季刊 -2020年3月号·第57卷·第1期 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 东欧移民大潮  - 金融与发展 - 国际货币基金组织季刊 -2020年3月号·第57卷·第1期 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2020/03/future-of-aging-populations-and-economic-growth-in-eastern-europe-petrakis"
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    "Authors: MARIA PETRAKIS",
    "Published: March 1, 2020",
    "Nine of the ten fastest-shrinking countries in the world are in eastern Europe, according to United Nations projections.",
    "Life expectancy has risen to 74 years from 67 in 1995.",
    "GDP per capita has more than doubled since 1995.",
    "Between 1995 and 2017, central, eastern, and southeastern European (CESEE) countries lost about 7 percent of their workforce, mostly young and educated workers.",
    "The United Nations expects that the population of the region will decline by 12 percent by 2050 as a result of aging and migration.",
    "The workforce will fall by a quarter in the same period.",
    "IMF research indicates demographic pressures could cost these countries about 1 percent of GDP per year for the next 30 years.",
    "Per capita GDP for these countries will still be only 60 percent of western European levels in 2050, up from 52 percent now; without the demographic challenge, it could have been 74 percent.",
    "Longer lives, smaller families, and the ease of emigration have combined to exert growing demographic pressure.",
    "Emigration of young, skilled professionals has accelerated since the fall of communism in 1989 and has been amplified by EU membership, which eased labor mobility.",
    "Mortality and emigration rates in the region are much higher than those in western Europe, exacerbating population decline.",
    "Fertility policies face long lags: even if fertility increased immediately, it would be two decades before the working-age population showed a difference.",
    "Family/fertility incentives:",
    "Labor force participation and retention:",
    "Improve retention of skilled workers:",
    "Inward migration and firm-level responses:",
    "Skills and lifelong education:",
    "Automation could free workers for higher-value activities but also push out workers with lower skill levels.",
    "Financial incentives to raise birth rates have shown limited effects elsewhere; demographic effects on the workforce are slow to materialize.",
    "IMF and regional economists stress that population aging affects health care, social services, and long-term growth prospects—not just public pensions.",
    "“Population aging concerns more than just public pensions,” — Alasdair Scott, IMF economist.",
    "“The world is a highly competitive place,” — Maria Topalova; countries must offer meaningful opportunities to retain talent.",
    "Global labor market signal: 54 percent of companies say they struggle to find qualified people for vacancies, the highest rate in a decade (Manpower Group Talent Shortage survey for 2019).",
    "**الهجرة الجماعية من أوروبا الشرقية**",
    "**El éxodo de Europa oriental ● Finanzas y Desarrollo ● Marzo de 2020**",
    "**Europe de l’Est : exode vers l’Ouest**",
    "**Eastern Europe: The Future of Aging Populations and Economic Growth – IMF F&D**",
    "**东欧移民大潮  - 金融与发展 - 国际货币基金组织季刊 -2020年3月号·第57卷·第1期**"
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