{ "title": "The Future of Aging: A Guide for Policymakers – IMF F&D", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2020/03/the-future-of-aging-guide-for-policymakers-scott", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2020/03/the-future-of-aging-guide-for-policymakers-scott", "overlayPath": "/en/publications/fandd/issues/2020/03/the-future-of-aging-guide-for-policymakers-scott/index.md", "summary": "London Business School’s Andrew Scott explains why longer, more productive lives will mean big changes to the old rules of aging, and why policymakers should plan ahead.", "sections": [ { "heading": "Overview and central thesis", "content": "- The past 150 years have seen average global life expectancy rise from about 30 years (1870) to 73 (today) (Deaton 2015).\n- Longer lives are, on average, healthier: the proportion of life lived free of frailty or illness has remained broadly unchanged.\n- The core argument: shift policy focus from treating aging solely as a fiscal burden to embracing a \"longevity agenda\" that restructures behavior and institutions to make the most of longer, healthier, and more productive lives.\n- Distinguish between chronological age (years since birth) and biological age (fitness and health); age malleability implies many people are aging more slowly across multiple measures." }, { "heading": "Key demographic facts and projections", "content": "- 1870: average global life expectancy about 30 years.\n- Today: average global life expectancy is 73.\n- 1960: average Chinese newborn had a 27 percent chance of making it to age 65; today that probability is 83 percent and rising.\n- 1965: 129 million people over 65 in the world.\n- Today: nearly 750 million people over 65.\n- Projected by 2100: 2.5 billion people over 65.\n- Centenarians: 20,000 in 1965; projected 19 million by 2100.\n- Share of world population over 65: 5 percent in 1950; 9 percent today; expected to reach 23 percent by 2100.\n- In 2016 noncommunicable diseases accounted for 71 percent of deaths globally, with 78 percent occurring in low- and middle-income countries." }, { "heading": "Diagnostic framing: aging society vs. longevity effect", "content": "- Two distinct forces:\n - Aging society: changing demographic structure with higher proportions of older people.\n - Longevity effect: improvements in how people age (healthier, more productive later life).\n- Viewing change only as an aging society overlooks gains from longer healthy lives and misleads policy toward defensive measures rather than opportunity-driven reforms." }, { "heading": "Common myths identified", "content": "- Myth 1: Aging is best measured chronologically.\n - Chronological definitions (e.g., old age starting at 65, old-age dependency ratios) obscure biological-age differences and overstate the rise in older population when biological measures are used (Sanderson and Scherbov 2019).\n- Myth 2: All countries are aging (in the same sense).\n - Some countries show lower average mortality even as median age rises; proximity-to-death measures can imply these populations are effectively younger with a larger future.\n- Myth 3: Japan is a harbinger (uniform preview of other countries).\n - Japan’s transition has been the most pronounced among G7 since 1950; balance between aging-society effects and longevity benefits will vary across countries.\n- Myth 4: Aging is a rich-country problem.\n - Many low-income countries have young populations now but will age in coming decades; policy should prepare 15-year-olds today for aging well by 2070." }, { "heading": "Employment, education, and health: pillars of the longevity agenda", "content": "- Supporting older workers\n - Workforce withdrawal often begins around age 50 and is often involuntary.\n - Between 2008 and 2018 people over 55 accounted for 79 percent of employment growth across Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries and 103 percent in G7 countries.\n - Cross-country variation in employment of older workers is driven more by changes in likelihood of working than by size of the older population.\n - Policy levers include pension generosity/availability, health and workplace support, industrial structure, job types, robotics and artificial intelligence, flexible and part-time work arrangements.\n - Need to combat corporate ageism and extend disability rights and diversity legislation to protect and support older workers.\n- Supporting longer productive lives (lifelong learning)\n - Transition from a three-stage model (\"learn, earn, and retire\") to a multistage life with major increases in adult education and retraining.\n - Longer careers will require flexibility for time out for retraining, family support, reorientation, recuperation, and repurposing.\n- All’s well that ages well (health policy focus)\n - Disease burden shifts toward noncommunicable diseases (heart disease, cancer, diabetes, dementia).\n - Noncommunicable diseases are expensively and poorly managed through late intervention; shift toward preventive health care is recommended.\n - Public education on activity, diet, engagement, and purpose is required, alongside new monitoring and predictive technologies (artificial intelligence and big data).\n - Research into slowing the aging process (targeting aging itself rather than single diseases) should be prioritized (Ellison, Sinclair, and Scott 2020; Sinclair 2019)." }, { "heading": "Policy recommendations and institutional approaches", "content": "- Reframe policy objectives from deficit-focused responses to pro-longevity strategies that maximize healthy, productive years.\n- Labor market and workplace reforms\n - Encourage flexible work, part-time opportunities, and use of assistive technologies to sustain employment among older workers.\n - Strengthen legal protections: disability rights extension and age-diversity legislation.\n- Education and lifelong learning\n - Reconfigure education systems to support adult education and continuous retraining across multistage careers.\n- Health system reorientation\n - Emphasize preventive care and public education to reduce noncommunicable disease burden.\n - Invest in predictive and monitoring technologies (AI, big data) for early detection and intervention.\n - Prioritize research on the biology of aging and treatments that slow aging.\n- Policy nuance and targeting\n - Move beyond policies anchored solely on chronological age (e.g., blanket increases in state pension age).\n - Provide differentiated options: support those unable to work while incentivizing work for those able.\n- Measurement and coordination\n - Consider healthy-life expectancy as an alternative welfare measure to GDP.\n - Use longevity councils to monitor progress and coordinate across government departments (example: Japan’s Council for Designing 100-Year Life)." }, { "heading": "Concluding implications", "content": "- Aging as a demographic fact is real, but the growing malleability of how people age opens opportunities to redesign life courses.\n- The central policy goal: maximize the number of people of all ages who benefit from the longevity effect while boosting productivity over longer lives.\n\nThe Future of Aging: A Guide for Policymakers – IMF F&D\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- حياة مديدة سعيدة\n - حياة مديدة سعيدة (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - حياة مديدة سعيدة (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Una buena y larga vida ● Finanzas y Desarrollo ● Marzo de 2020\n - Una buena y larga vida ● Finanzas y Desarrollo ● Marzo de 2020 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Una buena y larga vida ● Finanzas y Desarrollo ● Marzo de 2020 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Vivre longtemps en pleine santé\n - Vivre longtemps en pleine santé (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Vivre longtemps en pleine santé (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- The Future of Aging: A Guide for Policymakers – IMF F&D\n - The Future of Aging: A Guide for Policymakers – IMF F&D (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - The Future of Aging: A Guide for Policymakers – IMF F&D (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 长寿且优质的生活 - 金融与发展 - 国际货币基金组织季刊 -2020年3月号·第57卷·第1期\n - 长寿且优质的生活 - 金融与发展 - 国际货币基金组织季刊 -2020年3月号·第57卷·第1期 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - 长寿且优质的生活 - 金融与发展 - 国际货币基金组织季刊 -2020年3月号·第57卷·第1期 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2020/03/the-future-of-aging-guide-for-policymakers-scott" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/publications/fandd/issues/2020/03/the-future-of-aging-guide-for-policymakers-scott/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/fandd/issues/2020/03/the-future-of-aging-guide-for-policymakers-scott/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/fandd/issues/2020/03/the-future-of-aging-guide-for-policymakers-scott/bundle-manifest.json)", "Authors: ANDREW SCOTT", "Published: March 1, 2020", "The past 150 years have seen average global life expectancy rise from about 30 years (1870) to 73 (today) (Deaton 2015).", "Longer lives are, on average, healthier: the proportion of life lived free of frailty or illness has remained broadly unchanged.", "The core argument: shift policy focus from treating aging solely as a fiscal burden to embracing a \"longevity agenda\" that restructures behavior and institutions to make the most of longer, healthier, and more productive lives.", "Distinguish between chronological age (years since birth) and biological age (fitness and health); age malleability implies many people are aging more slowly across multiple measures.", "1870: average global life expectancy about 30 years.", "Today: average global life expectancy is 73.", "1960: average Chinese newborn had a 27 percent chance of making it to age 65; today that probability is 83 percent and rising.", "1965: 129 million people over 65 in the world.", "Today: nearly 750 million people over 65.", "Projected by 2100: 2.5 billion people over 65.", "Centenarians: 20,000 in 1965; projected 19 million by 2100.", "Share of world population over 65: 5 percent in 1950; 9 percent today; expected to reach 23 percent by 2100.", "In 2016 noncommunicable diseases accounted for 71 percent of deaths globally, with 78 percent occurring in low- and middle-income countries.", "Two distinct forces:", "Viewing change only as an aging society overlooks gains from longer healthy lives and misleads policy toward defensive measures rather than opportunity-driven reforms.", "Myth #1: Aging is best measured chronologically.", "Myth #2: All countries are aging (in the same sense).", "Myth #3: Japan is a harbinger (uniform preview of other countries).", "Myth #4: Aging is a rich-country problem.", "Supporting older workers", "Supporting longer productive lives (lifelong learning)", "All’s well that ages well (health policy focus)", "Reframe policy objectives from deficit-focused responses to pro-longevity strategies that maximize healthy, productive years.", "Labor market and workplace reforms", "Education and lifelong learning", "Health system reorientation", "Policy nuance and targeting", "Measurement and coordination", "Aging as a demographic fact is real, but the growing malleability of how people age opens opportunities to redesign life courses.", "The central policy goal: maximize the number of people of all ages who benefit from the longevity effect while boosting productivity over longer lives.", "**حياة مديدة سعيدة**", "**Una buena y larga vida ● Finanzas y Desarrollo ● Marzo de 2020**", "**Vivre longtemps en pleine santé**", "**The Future of Aging: A Guide for Policymakers – IMF F&D**", "**长寿且优质的生活 - 金融与发展 - 国际货币基金组织季刊 -2020年3月号·第57卷·第1期**" ], "related": [ { "title": "حياة مديدة سعيدة", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2020/march/ar/scott.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2020/march/ar/scott.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2020/march/ar/scott.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Una buena y larga vida ● Finanzas y Desarrollo ● Marzo de 2020", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2020/march/es/el-futuro-del-envejecimiento-guia-para-autoridades-scott.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2020/march/es/el-futuro-del-envejecimiento-guia-para-autoridades-scott.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2020/march/es/el-futuro-del-envejecimiento-guia-para-autoridades-scott.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Vivre longtemps en pleine santé", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2020/march/fr/vieillir-a-lavenir-guide-a-lintention-des-dirgieants-scott.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2020/march/fr/vieillir-a-lavenir-guide-a-lintention-des-dirgieants-scott.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2020/march/fr/vieillir-a-lavenir-guide-a-lintention-des-dirgieants-scott.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "The Future of Aging: A Guide for Policymakers – IMF F&D", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2020/march/the-future-of-aging-guide-for-policymakers-scott.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2020/march/the-future-of-aging-guide-for-policymakers-scott.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2020/march/the-future-of-aging-guide-for-policymakers-scott.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "长寿且优质的生活 - 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