## The Future of Aging: A Guide for Policymakers – IMF F&D ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [The Future of Aging: A Guide for Policymakers – IMF F&D](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2020/03/the-future-of-aging-guide-for-policymakers-scott) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/en/publications/fandd/issues/2020/03/the-future-of-aging-guide-for-policymakers-scott/index.md) - [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/fandd/issues/2020/03/the-future-of-aging-guide-for-policymakers-scott/index.json) - [Bundle manifest](/en/publications/fandd/issues/2020/03/the-future-of-aging-guide-for-policymakers-scott/bundle-manifest.json) ## Bibliographic details - Authors: ANDREW SCOTT - Published: March 1, 2020 --- ### Overview and central thesis - The past 150 years have seen average global life expectancy rise from about 30 years (1870) to 73 (today) (Deaton 2015). - Longer lives are, on average, healthier: the proportion of life lived free of frailty or illness has remained broadly unchanged. - The core argument: shift policy focus from treating aging solely as a fiscal burden to embracing a "longevity agenda" that restructures behavior and institutions to make the most of longer, healthier, and more productive lives. - Distinguish between chronological age (years since birth) and biological age (fitness and health); age malleability implies many people are aging more slowly across multiple measures. ### Key demographic facts and projections - 1870: average global life expectancy about 30 years. - Today: average global life expectancy is 73. - 1960: average Chinese newborn had a 27 percent chance of making it to age 65; today that probability is 83 percent and rising. - 1965: 129 million people over 65 in the world. - Today: nearly 750 million people over 65. - Projected by 2100: 2.5 billion people over 65. - Centenarians: 20,000 in 1965; projected 19 million by 2100. - Share of world population over 65: 5 percent in 1950; 9 percent today; expected to reach 23 percent by 2100. - In 2016 noncommunicable diseases accounted for 71 percent of deaths globally, with 78 percent occurring in low- and middle-income countries. ### Diagnostic framing: aging society vs. longevity effect - Two distinct forces: - Aging society: changing demographic structure with higher proportions of older people. - Longevity effect: improvements in how people age (healthier, more productive later life). - Viewing change only as an aging society overlooks gains from longer healthy lives and misleads policy toward defensive measures rather than opportunity-driven reforms. ### Common myths identified - Myth #1: Aging is best measured chronologically. - Chronological definitions (e.g., old age starting at 65, old-age dependency ratios) obscure biological-age differences and overstate the rise in older population when biological measures are used (Sanderson and Scherbov 2019). - Myth #2: All countries are aging (in the same sense). - Some countries show lower average mortality even as median age rises; proximity-to-death measures can imply these populations are effectively younger with a larger future. - Myth #3: Japan is a harbinger (uniform preview of other countries). - Japan’s transition has been the most pronounced among G7 since 1950; balance between aging-society effects and longevity benefits will vary across countries. - Myth #4: Aging is a rich-country problem. - Many low-income countries have young populations now but will age in coming decades; policy should prepare 15-year-olds today for aging well by 2070. ### Employment, education, and health: pillars of the longevity agenda - Supporting older workers - Workforce withdrawal often begins around age 50 and is often involuntary. - Between 2008 and 2018 people over 55 accounted for 79 percent of employment growth across Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries and 103 percent in G7 countries. - Cross-country variation in employment of older workers is driven more by changes in likelihood of working than by size of the older population. - Policy levers include pension generosity/availability, health and workplace support, industrial structure, job types, robotics and artificial intelligence, flexible and part-time work arrangements. - Need to combat corporate ageism and extend disability rights and diversity legislation to protect and support older workers. - Supporting longer productive lives (lifelong learning) - Transition from a three-stage model ("learn, earn, and retire") to a multistage life with major increases in adult education and retraining. - Longer careers will require flexibility for time out for retraining, family support, reorientation, recuperation, and repurposing. - All’s well that ages well (health policy focus) - Disease burden shifts toward noncommunicable diseases (heart disease, cancer, diabetes, dementia). - Noncommunicable diseases are expensively and poorly managed through late intervention; shift toward preventive health care is recommended. - Public education on activity, diet, engagement, and purpose is required, alongside new monitoring and predictive technologies (artificial intelligence and big data). - Research into slowing the aging process (targeting aging itself rather than single diseases) should be prioritized (Ellison, Sinclair, and Scott 2020; Sinclair 2019). ### Policy recommendations and institutional approaches - Reframe policy objectives from deficit-focused responses to pro-longevity strategies that maximize healthy, productive years. - Labor market and workplace reforms - Encourage flexible work, part-time opportunities, and use of assistive technologies to sustain employment among older workers. - Strengthen legal protections: disability rights extension and age-diversity legislation. - Education and lifelong learning - Reconfigure education systems to support adult education and continuous retraining across multistage careers. - Health system reorientation - Emphasize preventive care and public education to reduce noncommunicable disease burden. - Invest in predictive and monitoring technologies (AI, big data) for early detection and intervention. - Prioritize research on the biology of aging and treatments that slow aging. - Policy nuance and targeting - Move beyond policies anchored solely on chronological age (e.g., blanket increases in state pension age). - Provide differentiated options: support those unable to work while incentivizing work for those able. - Measurement and coordination - Consider healthy-life expectancy as an alternative welfare measure to GDP. - Use longevity councils to monitor progress and coordinate across government departments (example: Japan’s Council for Designing 100-Year Life). ### Concluding implications - Aging as a demographic fact is real, but the growing malleability of how people age opens opportunities to redesign life courses. - The central policy goal: maximize the number of people of all ages who benefit from the longevity effect while boosting productivity over longer lives. *The Future of Aging: A Guide for Policymakers – IMF F&D* --- ## Content in this bundle - **حياة مديدة سعيدة** - [حياة مديدة سعيدة (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2020/march/ar/scott.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [حياة مديدة سعيدة (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2020/march/ar/scott.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Una buena y larga vida ● Finanzas y Desarrollo ● Marzo de 2020** - [Una buena y larga vida ● Finanzas y Desarrollo ● Marzo de 2020 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2020/march/es/el-futuro-del-envejecimiento-guia-para-autoridades-scott.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Una buena y larga vida ● Finanzas y Desarrollo ● Marzo de 2020 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2020/march/es/el-futuro-del-envejecimiento-guia-para-autoridades-scott.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Vivre longtemps en pleine santé** - [Vivre longtemps en pleine santé (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2020/march/fr/vieillir-a-lavenir-guide-a-lintention-des-dirgieants-scott.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Vivre longtemps en pleine santé (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2020/march/fr/vieillir-a-lavenir-guide-a-lintention-des-dirgieants-scott.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **The Future of Aging: A Guide for Policymakers – IMF F&D** - [The Future of Aging: A Guide for Policymakers – IMF F&D (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2020/march/the-future-of-aging-guide-for-policymakers-scott.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [The Future of Aging: A Guide for Policymakers – IMF F&D (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2020/march/the-future-of-aging-guide-for-policymakers-scott.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **长寿且优质的生活 - 金融与发展 - 国际货币基金组织季刊 -2020年3月号·第57卷·第1期** - [长寿且优质的生活 - 金融与发展 - 国际货币基金组织季刊 -2020年3月号·第57卷·第1期 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2020/march/zh/scott.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [长寿且优质的生活 - 金融与发展 - 国际货币基金组织季刊 -2020年3月号·第57卷·第1期 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2020/march/zh/scott.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} --- _Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2020/03/the-future-of-aging-guide-for-policymakers-scott_