{
  "title": "Jim O’Neill: Is the Emerging World Still Emerging?",
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  "summary": "Two decades on, the BRICs promise lingers, writes Jim O’Neill. Looking ahead, what can we expect from emerging markets?",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Key findings on past performance",
      "content": "- Without COVID-19, GDP growth in the past decade would have been about 3.6 percent—just below the 3.7 percent experienced in 2000–09.\n- Each decade since the 1980s has witnessed stronger economic growth than the 1980s and 1990s, each about 3.3 percent.\n- Hundreds of millions of people have been taken out of absolute poverty in part because of the growth led by the so-called emerging markets.\n- China’s GDP, in excess of $14 trillion (as of 2019), is more than twice that of the other BRICs in aggregate.\n- The combined BRIC economies are now larger than that of the European Union and are approaching the size of the United States.\n- For the four BRICs, 2010–20 economic performance:\n  - India: broadly developing along the path envisioned but has notably disappointed in recent years.\n  - Brazil and Russia: very disappointing performance; afflicted by the commodity curse and excessive dependence on the world commodity cycle.\n  - China: ongoing strength suggests it is fully achieving its potential."
    },
    {
      "heading": "BRICs revisited — framing and intent",
      "content": "- The original purpose of coining “BRICs” was to argue for changing the framework for global economic governance, not to assert that these countries would always grow at their theoretical potential.\n- Potential growth was defined using standard macroeconomic methodology: real growth determined by workforce size and productivity.\n- The BRICs’ large populations and scope for productivity catch-up implied higher potential growth rates than most advanced economies.\n- The analysis did not intend to imply persistent growth at potential for all countries."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Growth prospects and determinants going forward",
      "content": "- China’s real GDP growth rate will slow beginning in 2021 because of increasing demographic challenges, yet it is expected to eventually overtake the United States as the world’s biggest economy.\n- It will be very hard for the world to get to a real GDP growth rate of 4 percent; even the 3.7 percent of the past two decades could be challenging.\n- Four factors will determine whether global growth reaches needed levels:\n  - productivity in developed economies;\n  - how quickly China’s growth trend slows;\n  - the success of India;\n  - whether other highly populated emerging market economies (e.g., Indonesia, Mexico, Nigeria, Vietnam) get close to their long-term potential.\n- If those emerging markets realize their potential, world real GDP growth could better emulate that of the past decade."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Health, pandemic response, and the IMF’s role",
      "content": "- An immediate strong post–COVID-19 recovery almost exclusively depends on developing and distributing vaccines and treatments to eradicate the pandemic.\n- Jim O’Neill judges the multiplier benefits of the required $20–$30 billion from donors for vaccine/treatment efforts make it “the biggest no-brainer economic stimulus any generation has had the chance to agree to,” dwarfing potential benefits of 2008–09.\n- The IMF should:\n  - play an active role in encouraging this stimulus;\n  - enter the arena of health systems and integrate analysis of health spending in its surveillance work;\n  - align with finance ministers to support the Access to COVID-19 Tools (ACT) Accelerator and expand such efforts.\n- Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) is highlighted as another major health threat:\n  - AMR could cause as many as 10 million deaths annually by 2050 and, as a result, a cumulative $100 trillion in lost economic opportunity.\n- Strengthening links between economics, finance, and health is urged as central to emerging ideas."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Fiscal policy, investment, and financial systems",
      "content": "- In the aftermath of COVID-19, emerging market economies—especially larger ones—must adopt smart fiscal policies that prioritize public investment.\n- A new basis is needed to distinguish government investment spending (positive multiplier, should be treated differently) from government consumption spending.\n- Tackling climate change and future health threats requires such investment, which is arguably more important for economic growth than financial conditions.\n- Stronger domestic financial systems will almost definitely be required to support smarter fiscal policy.\n- Continued dependence on a monetary system based on the US dollar complicates emerging markets’ ability to reach growth potential:\n  - The dollar-based monetary system remains broadly as dominant as in 1982, causing the world to ride the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy cycle and associated global financial conditions.\n  - As the Fed tightens, financial conditions for emerging markets tighten—often chaotically; as the Fed eases, the reverse happens.\n- The monetary system needs to evolve to reflect changing global dynamics; until it does, emerging markets’ ability to reach potential will remain challenging."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy recommendations and priorities",
      "content": "- Emerging market nations should:\n  - be bolder and smarter about public investment priorities, especially in health, education, and climate-related infrastructure;\n  - diversify economies away from commodity dependence and grow the role of the private sector (notably for Brazil and Russia);\n  - strengthen domestic financial systems to support investment-led growth.\n- The IMF should:\n  - integrate health spending analysis into surveillance work;\n  - actively support global vaccine/treatment financing and distribution efforts such as the ACT Accelerator;\n  - assist emerging markets in designing fiscal frameworks that differentiate investment from consumption.\n\nJim O’Neill: Is the Emerging World Still Emerging? — F&D Magazine, June 2021\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- وجهة نظر\n  - وجهة نظر (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - وجهة نظر (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 新兴世界仍在崛起吗？ - 金融与发展 - 国际货币基金组织季刊 -2021年6月号·第58卷\n  - 新兴世界仍在崛起吗？ - 金融与发展 - 国际货币基金组织季刊 -2021年6月号·第58卷 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 新兴世界仍在崛起吗？ - 金融与发展 - 国际货币基金组织季刊 -2021年6月号·第58卷 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- ¿Está aún emergiendo el mundo emergente? ● Finanzas y Desarrollo ● Junio de 2021\n  - ¿Está aún emergiendo el mundo emergente? ● Finanzas y Desarrollo ● Junio de 2021 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - ¿Está aún emergiendo el mundo emergente? ● Finanzas y Desarrollo ● Junio de 2021 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Jim O’Neill: Is the Emerging World Still Emerging? – IMF F&D\n  - Jim O’Neill: Is the Emerging World Still Emerging? – IMF F&D (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Jim O’Neill: Is the Emerging World Still Emerging? – IMF F&D (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 視点　「新興市場国は今も台頭し続けているのか」　ジム・オニール著、　ファイナンス＆ディベロップメント　２０２１年6月号\n  - 視点　「新興市場国は今も台頭し続けているのか」　ジム・オニール著、　ファイナンス＆ディベロップメント　２０２１年6月号 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 視点　「新興市場国は今も台頭し続けているのか」　ジム・オニール著、　ファイナンス＆ディベロップメント　２０２１年6月号 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Формирующаяся экономика все еще формируется?\n  - Формирующаяся экономика все еще формируется? (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Формирующаяся экономика все еще формируется? (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2021/06/jim-oneill-revisits-brics-emerging-markets"
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    "Authors: JIM O NEILL",
    "Published: June 1, 2021",
    "Without COVID-19, GDP growth in the past decade would have been about 3.6 percent—just below the 3.7 percent experienced in 2000–09.",
    "Each decade since the 1980s has witnessed stronger economic growth than the 1980s and 1990s, each about 3.3 percent.",
    "Hundreds of millions of people have been taken out of absolute poverty in part because of the growth led by the so-called emerging markets.",
    "China’s GDP, in excess of $14 trillion (as of 2019), is more than twice that of the other BRICs in aggregate.",
    "The combined BRIC economies are now larger than that of the European Union and are approaching the size of the United States.",
    "For the four BRICs, 2010–20 economic performance:",
    "The original purpose of coining “BRICs” was to argue for changing the framework for global economic governance, not to assert that these countries would always grow at their theoretical potential.",
    "Potential growth was defined using standard macroeconomic methodology: real growth determined by workforce size and productivity.",
    "The BRICs’ large populations and scope for productivity catch-up implied higher potential growth rates than most advanced economies.",
    "The analysis did not intend to imply persistent growth at potential for all countries.",
    "China’s real GDP growth rate will slow beginning in 2021 because of increasing demographic challenges, yet it is expected to eventually overtake the United States as the world’s biggest economy.",
    "It will be very hard for the world to get to a real GDP growth rate of 4 percent; even the 3.7 percent of the past two decades could be challenging.",
    "Four factors will determine whether global growth reaches needed levels:",
    "If those emerging markets realize their potential, world real GDP growth could better emulate that of the past decade.",
    "An immediate strong post–COVID-19 recovery almost exclusively depends on developing and distributing vaccines and treatments to eradicate the pandemic.",
    "Jim O’Neill judges the multiplier benefits of the required $20–$30 billion from donors for vaccine/treatment efforts make it “the biggest no-brainer economic stimulus any generation has had the chance to agree to,” dwarfing potential benefits of 2008–09.",
    "The IMF should:",
    "Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) is highlighted as another major health threat:",
    "Strengthening links between economics, finance, and health is urged as central to emerging ideas.",
    "In the aftermath of COVID-19, emerging market economies—especially larger ones—must adopt smart fiscal policies that prioritize public investment.",
    "A new basis is needed to distinguish government investment spending (positive multiplier, should be treated differently) from government consumption spending.",
    "Tackling climate change and future health threats requires such investment, which is arguably more important for economic growth than financial conditions.",
    "Stronger domestic financial systems will almost definitely be required to support smarter fiscal policy.",
    "Continued dependence on a monetary system based on the US dollar complicates emerging markets’ ability to reach growth potential:",
    "The monetary system needs to evolve to reflect changing global dynamics; until it does, emerging markets’ ability to reach potential will remain challenging.",
    "Emerging market nations should:",
    "The IMF should:",
    "**وجهة نظر**",
    "**新兴世界仍在崛起吗？ - 金融与发展 - 国际货币基金组织季刊 -2021年6月号·第58卷**",
    "**¿Está aún emergiendo el mundo emergente? ● Finanzas y Desarrollo ● Junio de 2021**",
    "**Jim O’Neill: Is the Emerging World Still Emerging? – IMF F&D**",
    "**視点　「新興市場国は今も台頭し続けているのか」　ジム・オニール著、　ファイナンス＆ディベロップメント　２０２１年6月号**",
    "**Формирующаяся экономика все еще формируется?**"
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