{
  "title": "Pandemic Economics",
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  "summary": "A broad-based economic recovery requires an end to the pandemic. Last May, the IMF released a detailed and comprehensive road map to end the COVID-19 pandemic, save lives, and put the world back on track toward a broad-based economic recovery (\"A Proposal to End the COVID-19 Pandemic,\" Agarwal and G",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Executive summary",
      "content": "- A broad-based economic recovery requires an end to the pandemic; ending the pandemic is a necessary prerequisite to restoring jobs, livelihoods, and economic well-being.\n- The IMF released \"A Proposal to End the COVID-19 Pandemic\" in May 2021 as a detailed road map; it was endorsed by multilateral institutions and key stakeholders.\n- Opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect IMF policy."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Recent status and macroeconomic outlook",
      "content": "- In six months, the officially recorded global COVID-19 death toll has risen by about 50 percent and is now over 5 million; the actual death toll is estimated to be several times higher.\n- Global recovery has continued, but momentum has weakened.\n- October 2021 World Economic Outlook projections:\n  - Aggregate output for advanced economies would regain its pre-pandemic trend path in 2022 and exceed it by 0.9 percent in 2024.\n  - Output for emerging market and developing economies, excluding China, is expected to remain 5.5 percent below the pre-pandemic forecast in 2024.\n- Divergence in prospects driven by disparities in vaccination rates and policy support (\"the great vaccine divide\").\n  - As of the end of October, about 65 percent of the population in advanced economies was fully vaccinated; booster shots were available in many of them.\n  - Vaccination rate was less than 2 percent among low-income countries.\n- If COVID-19 has a prolonged impact, global GDP losses could rise to $5.3 trillion over five years relative to current projection, with several million more lives lost."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Road map targets and financing",
      "content": "- Three broad targets identified:\n  - Vaccinating at least 40 percent of the population in all countries by the end of 2021.\n  - Vaccinating 70 percent by the first half of 2022.\n  - Tracking and insuring against downside risks (new variants or supply-chain problems).\n  - Ensuring widespread access to tests, treatments, personal protective equipment, and other critical health tools to save lives.\n- Financing needs and mechanisms:\n  - Commit to financing the new ACT-Accelerator budget of about $23 billion to ensure access to vaccines, tests, treatments, and personal protective equipment.\n  - The ACT-Accelerator is a partnership of the world’s international health organizations to fight COVID-19."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Progress and gaps (as of end of October)",
      "content": "- Progress toward key actions has been mixed; targets are still behind schedule.\n- Some 75 to 80 nations, mostly in Africa, were not on track to meet the end-2021 40 percent vaccination target.\n  - Fifty-five of these countries will likely have problems primarily with supply.\n  - Twenty-four will have both supply and absorption-capacity issues."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Near-term actions recommended",
      "content": "- Immediately close the 550 million dose gap to achieve 40 percent coverage by:\n  - Accelerating existing dose donations to the COVID-19 Vaccines Global Access (COVAX) facility and pledging new donations.\n  - Executing dose swaps with COVAX and the African Union (deferring the delivery of doses intended for Group of Twenty [G20] countries to allow developing economies to move up in the queue).\n  - Eliminating restrictions on exports of vaccines and critical inputs.\n- Maintain collective accountability through frequent engagement between Group of Seven advanced economies, the broader G20, and other key stakeholders."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Medium- to long-term actions and stewardship",
      "content": "- Expand regional manufacturing capacity of vaccines in developing economies and monitor risks.\n- Lessons learned:\n  - Pandemic policy is economic policy; there is no durable end to the economic crisis without an end to the health crisis.\n  - Ending the pandemic is critical for global macroeconomic and financial stability and should be explicitly accounted for in economic analysis and surveillance.\n  - The world needs better stewardship of global public goods and much greater coordination and collective action for pandemic preparedness.\n  - The G20 High Level Independent Panel’s report on pandemic preparedness provides concrete steps for improved multilateralism in a pandemic era.\n\nF&D Magazine — Pandemic Economics; RUCHIR AGARWAL, GITA GOPINATH; December 2021.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- اقتصاديات الجائحة\n  - اقتصاديات الجائحة (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - اقتصاديات الجائحة (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- La economía de la pandemia ● Finanzas y Desarrollo ● Diciembre de 2021\n  - La economía de la pandemia ● Finanzas y Desarrollo ● Diciembre de 2021 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - La economía de la pandemia ● Finanzas y Desarrollo ● Diciembre de 2021 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- L’économie en temps de pandémie\n  - L’économie en temps de pandémie (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - L’économie en temps de pandémie (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Pandemic Economics\n  - Pandemic Economics (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Pandemic Economics (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 広範な経済回復にはパンデミックの収束が必須\n  - 広範な経済回復にはパンデミックの収束が必須 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 広範な経済回復にはパンデミックの収束が必須 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- agarwal-gopinath\n  - agarwal-gopinath (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - agarwal-gopinath (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 疫情经济学  ● 《金融与发展》● 2021年12月号\n  - 疫情经济学  ● 《金融与发展》● 2021年12月号 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 疫情经济学  ● 《金融与发展》● 2021年12月号 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2021/12/pandemic-economics-agarwal-gopinath"
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    "Authors: RUCHIR AGARWAL, GITA GOPINATH",
    "Published: December 2, 2021",
    "A broad-based economic recovery requires an end to the pandemic; ending the pandemic is a necessary prerequisite to restoring jobs, livelihoods, and economic well-being.",
    "The IMF released \"A Proposal to End the COVID-19 Pandemic\" in May 2021 as a detailed road map; it was endorsed by multilateral institutions and key stakeholders.",
    "Opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect IMF policy.",
    "In six months, the officially recorded global COVID-19 death toll has risen by about 50 percent and is now over 5 million; the actual death toll is estimated to be several times higher.",
    "Global recovery has continued, but momentum has weakened.",
    "October 2021 World Economic Outlook projections:",
    "Divergence in prospects driven by disparities in vaccination rates and policy support (\"the great vaccine divide\").",
    "If COVID-19 has a prolonged impact, global GDP losses could rise to $5.3 trillion over five years relative to current projection, with several million more lives lost.",
    "Three broad targets identified:",
    "Financing needs and mechanisms:",
    "Progress toward key actions has been mixed; targets are still behind schedule.",
    "Some 75 to 80 nations, mostly in Africa, were not on track to meet the end-2021 40 percent vaccination target.",
    "Immediately close the 550 million dose gap to achieve 40 percent coverage by:",
    "Maintain collective accountability through frequent engagement between Group of Seven advanced economies, the broader G20, and other key stakeholders.",
    "Expand regional manufacturing capacity of vaccines in developing economies and monitor risks.",
    "Lessons learned:",
    "**اقتصاديات الجائحة**",
    "**La economía de la pandemia ● Finanzas y Desarrollo ● Diciembre de 2021**",
    "**L’économie en temps de pandémie**",
    "**Pandemic Economics**",
    "**広範な経済回復にはパンデミックの収束が必須**",
    "**agarwal-gopinath**",
    "**疫情经济学  ● 《金融与发展》● 2021年12月号**"
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