## Pandemic Economics ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [Pandemic Economics](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2021/12/pandemic-economics-agarwal-gopinath) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/en/publications/fandd/issues/2021/12/pandemic-economics-agarwal-gopinath/index.md) - [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/fandd/issues/2021/12/pandemic-economics-agarwal-gopinath/index.json) - [Bundle manifest](/en/publications/fandd/issues/2021/12/pandemic-economics-agarwal-gopinath/bundle-manifest.json) ## Bibliographic details - Authors: RUCHIR AGARWAL, GITA GOPINATH - Published: December 2, 2021 --- ### Executive summary - A broad-based economic recovery requires an end to the pandemic; ending the pandemic is a necessary prerequisite to restoring jobs, livelihoods, and economic well-being. - The IMF released "A Proposal to End the COVID-19 Pandemic" in May 2021 as a detailed road map; it was endorsed by multilateral institutions and key stakeholders. - Opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect IMF policy. ### Recent status and macroeconomic outlook - In six months, the officially recorded global COVID-19 death toll has risen by about 50 percent and is now over 5 million; the actual death toll is estimated to be several times higher. - Global recovery has continued, but momentum has weakened. - October 2021 World Economic Outlook projections: - Aggregate output for advanced economies would regain its pre-pandemic trend path in 2022 and exceed it by 0.9 percent in 2024. - Output for emerging market and developing economies, excluding China, is expected to remain 5.5 percent below the pre-pandemic forecast in 2024. - Divergence in prospects driven by disparities in vaccination rates and policy support ("the great vaccine divide"). - As of the end of October, about 65 percent of the population in advanced economies was fully vaccinated; booster shots were available in many of them. - Vaccination rate was less than 2 percent among low-income countries. - If COVID-19 has a prolonged impact, global GDP losses could rise to $5.3 trillion over five years relative to current projection, with several million more lives lost. ### Road map targets and financing - Three broad targets identified: - Vaccinating at least 40 percent of the population in all countries by the end of 2021. - Vaccinating 70 percent by the first half of 2022. - Tracking and insuring against downside risks (new variants or supply-chain problems). - Ensuring widespread access to tests, treatments, personal protective equipment, and other critical health tools to save lives. - Financing needs and mechanisms: - Commit to financing the new ACT-Accelerator budget of about $23 billion to ensure access to vaccines, tests, treatments, and personal protective equipment. - The ACT-Accelerator is a partnership of the world’s international health organizations to fight COVID-19. ### Progress and gaps (as of end of October) - Progress toward key actions has been mixed; targets are still behind schedule. - Some 75 to 80 nations, mostly in Africa, were not on track to meet the end-2021 40 percent vaccination target. - Fifty-five of these countries will likely have problems primarily with supply. - Twenty-four will have both supply and absorption-capacity issues. ### Near-term actions recommended - Immediately close the 550 million dose gap to achieve 40 percent coverage by: - Accelerating existing dose donations to the COVID-19 Vaccines Global Access (COVAX) facility and pledging new donations. - Executing dose swaps with COVAX and the African Union (deferring the delivery of doses intended for Group of Twenty [G20] countries to allow developing economies to move up in the queue). - Eliminating restrictions on exports of vaccines and critical inputs. - Maintain collective accountability through frequent engagement between Group of Seven advanced economies, the broader G20, and other key stakeholders. ### Medium- to long-term actions and stewardship - Expand regional manufacturing capacity of vaccines in developing economies and monitor risks. - Lessons learned: - Pandemic policy is economic policy; there is no durable end to the economic crisis without an end to the health crisis. - Ending the pandemic is critical for global macroeconomic and financial stability and should be explicitly accounted for in economic analysis and surveillance. - The world needs better stewardship of global public goods and much greater coordination and collective action for pandemic preparedness. - The G20 High Level Independent Panel’s report on pandemic preparedness provides concrete steps for improved multilateralism in a pandemic era. *F&D Magazine — Pandemic Economics; RUCHIR AGARWAL, GITA GOPINATH; December 2021.* --- ## Content in this bundle - **اقتصاديات الجائحة** - [اقتصاديات الجائحة (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2021/december/ar/agarwal-gopinath.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [اقتصاديات الجائحة (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2021/december/ar/agarwal-gopinath.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **La economía de la pandemia ● Finanzas y Desarrollo ● Diciembre de 2021** - [La economía de la pandemia ● Finanzas y Desarrollo ● Diciembre de 2021 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2021/december/es/agarwal-gopinath.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [La economía de la pandemia ● Finanzas y Desarrollo ● Diciembre de 2021 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2021/december/es/agarwal-gopinath.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **L’économie en temps de pandémie** - [L’économie en temps de pandémie (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2021/december/fr/agarwal-gopinath.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [L’économie en temps de pandémie (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2021/december/fr/agarwal-gopinath.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Pandemic Economics** - [Pandemic Economics (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2021/december/gopinath.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Pandemic Economics (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2021/december/gopinath.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **広範な経済回復にはパンデミックの収束が必須** - [広範な経済回復にはパンデミックの収束が必須 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2021/december/jp/gopinath.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [広範な経済回復にはパンデミックの収束が必須 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2021/december/jp/gopinath.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **agarwal-gopinath** - [agarwal-gopinath (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2021/december/ru/agarwal-gopinath.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [agarwal-gopinath (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2021/december/ru/agarwal-gopinath.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **疫情经济学 ● 《金融与发展》● 2021年12月号** - [疫情经济学 ● 《金融与发展》● 2021年12月号 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2021/december/zh/agarwal-gopinath.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [疫情经济学 ● 《金融与发展》● 2021年12月号 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2021/december/zh/agarwal-gopinath.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} --- _Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2021/12/pandemic-economics-agarwal-gopinath_