## Pandemic Lessons ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [Pandemic Lessons](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2021/12/pandemic-lessons-peter-sands) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/en/publications/fandd/issues/2021/12/pandemic-lessons-peter-sands/index.md) - [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/fandd/issues/2021/12/pandemic-lessons-peter-sands/index.json) - [Bundle manifest](/en/publications/fandd/issues/2021/12/pandemic-lessons-peter-sands/bundle-manifest.json) ## Bibliographic details - Authors: RUCHIR AGARWAL - Published: December 2, 2021 --- ### Economists' blind spot on pandemics - COVID-19 exposed that pandemics pose significant macroeconomic costs and were not given due attention by economists and financial institutions. - Evidence cited by Peter Sands: - He identified "15 countries that had suffered infectious disease outbreaks" and reviewed country reports. - Outbreaks were "mentioned in 63 percent of the IMF reports published afterwards, not a single report published before an outbreak highlighted the risk." - Reports reviewed covered "two years prior and two years after those outbreaks." - Causes of the blind spot: - Difficulty estimating "low-probability, high-impact events." - Specialists in health and economics "can’t speak each other’s language," creating a chasm of understanding. - Institutions like the IMF "didn't feel comfortable with issues related to epidemiology" and therefore did not look at those risks. ### IMF's comparative advantage and recommended approach - The IMF can assess a country's vulnerability to outbreaks and its economic impact much as it assesses other macrocritical challenges (for example, "liquidity shocks"). - The IMF should: - Draw on epidemiological expertise from others for the health side. - Use its core skills to examine "how an outbreak could affect the economy." - Sands' view on institutional learning: - "If large institutions like the Fund haven’t worked out that infectious diseases can have massive macroeconomic and financial effects because of COVID-19, I don’t know what will convince them." - The pandemic is "even bigger than the global financial crisis" in macroeconomic and financial impact. ### Global Fund response, priorities, and scale-up - The Global Fund rapidly deployed resources in response to COVID-19: - "We responded to the COVID-19 crisis very quickly, making money available in March 2020." - "Since then, we’ve deployed about $4 billion." - The Global Fund has been "the primary provider of support to low- and middle-income countries for non-vaccine health elements, such as testing, PPE [personal protective equipment], and oxygen." - Near-term priorities and strategy: - "To beat the pandemic, it is necessary to go bigger and faster." - Avoid a "lopsided response"; vaccines are "our most potent weapon, but vaccines alone will not defeat COVID." - Adopt a "more comprehensive response that encompasses a wider range of elements." - Emphasize speed: "The logic of fighting infectious diseases is to hit them fast because there’s a nonlinear impact both on beating them and if you let them run rampant." ### Impact of COVID-19 on other major diseases - COVID-19's effect on HIV, TB, and malaria: - COVID-19 is characterized as "the worst thing that ever happened to the fight against HIV, TB, and malaria." - The Global Fund's 2020 results report showed that "for the first time in our 20-year history, there were reverses in key results across all three diseases." - Context: "The Global Fund was set up to fight the last big pandemic, HIV/AIDS, which killed nearly 40 million people." - In most low- and low-middle-income countries, "HIV, TB, and malaria kill more people than COVID." - Policy implication: responses must address both "the direct impact of COVID and its knock-on impact on these other diseases." ### Innovation, urgency, and end-to-end perspectives - Innovation timelines and expectations: - COVID-19 "broke previous assumptions about how long it takes to develop responses such as rapid diagnostic tests and vaccines." - The approval of the malaria vaccine RTS,S "took years," and the Global Fund contributed funds to its development. - There is discussion in the TB field about "the possibility of a vaccine in four to five years." - Sands questions why a one-year vaccine development (for a novel virus) should not reset expectations: "If we can develop a vaccine in just a year for a virus we’d never seen before, why are we excited about waiting four to five years for a vaccine for a disease we’ve had for hundreds of years?" - Operational lessons: - Value an "end-to-end perspective," aligning those "involved in the deployment of new medical tools" with those "developing and launching them." - Translate pandemic-era speed into responses for other diseases: "As a banker, I heard people say, 'time is money.' In the global health world, time is life." - Protect people "from a whole slew of pathogens" to avoid saving someone from COVID-19 only for them "to die of TB." *F&D Magazine interview with Peter Sands, December 2021.* --- ## Content in this bundle - **الجائحة والدروس المُستفادة** - [الجائحة والدروس المُستفادة (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2021/december/ar/sands.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [الجائحة والدروس المُستفادة (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2021/december/ar/sands.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Lecciones de la pandemia ● Finanzas y Desarrollo ● Diciembre de 2021** - [Lecciones de la pandemia ● Finanzas y Desarrollo ● Diciembre de 2021 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2021/december/es/agarwal.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Lecciones de la pandemia ● Finanzas y Desarrollo ● Diciembre de 2021 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2021/december/es/agarwal.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Enseignements de la pandémie** - [Enseignements de la pandémie (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2021/december/fr/sands.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Enseignements de la pandémie (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2021/december/fr/sands.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Питер Сэндс: Уроки пандемии** - [Питер Сэндс: Уроки пандемии (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2021/december/ru/sands.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Питер Сэндс: Уроки пандемии (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2021/december/ru/sands.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Pandemic Lessons** - [Pandemic Lessons (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2021/december/sands.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Pandemic Lessons (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2021/december/sands.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **新冠疫情带给我们的启示 ● 《金融与发展》● 2021年12月号** - [新冠疫情带给我们的启示 ● 《金融与发展》● 2021年12月号 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2021/december/zh/agarwal.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [新冠疫情带给我们的启示 ● 《金融与发展》● 2021年12月号 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2021/december/zh/agarwal.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} --- _Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2021/12/pandemic-lessons-peter-sands_