{
  "title": "The Basic Skills Gap",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2022/06/basic-skills-gap-hanushek-woessmann",
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  "summary": "The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) have received considerable attention since their adoption in 2015. But halfway through their implementation period there is little indication that the ambitious agenda will be accomplished by 2030.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Key issues highlighted",
      "content": "- (1) Skill differences account for three-quarters of cross-country variations in long-term growth.\n- (2) The global skill deficit is immense, as two-thirds or more of the world’s youth do not reach even basic skill levels.\n- (3) Reaching the goal of global universal basic skills would raise future world GDP by $700 trillion over the remainder of the century."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Achievement and growth",
      "content": "- Long-term growth depends primarily on the skills of the people (Hanushek and Woessmann 2015).\n- Relevant economic skills are captured by international student achievement tests in math and science (for example, PISA, TIMSS).\n- Achievement explains three-quarters of the variation in growth rates across countries.\n- Years of schooling have no bearing on growth after accounting for what has actually been learned.\n- Evidence presented to support causality:\n  - Achievement tests up to the early 1980s predict subsequent growth.\n  - Greater spending does not consistently raise achievement.\n  - Using achievement variation arising from strong school institutions (accountability, school choice) yields the same link to faster growth.\n  - Countries with increased achievement over time have subsequently shown increased growth rates."
    },
    {
      "heading": "The world picture of education",
      "content": "- Definition of basic skills: represented by mastering at least PISA Level 1 skills.\n  - PISA Level 1: able to carry out obvious routine procedures according to direct instructions, but cannot draw direct inferences or reliably employ basic conventions to solve simple problems involving whole numbers.\n- Global shortfall:\n  - Two-thirds or more of the world’s young people fail to reach the minimum skill levels required to compete in the international economy.\n  - Deficits are worldwide and most severe in the poorest countries.\n- Six stylized facts summarizing global deficits:\n  - At least two-thirds of the world’s youth do not obtain basic skills.\n  - The share of young people who do not reach basic skills exceeds half in 101 countries and rises above 90 percent in 37 of these.\n  - Even in high-income countries, a quarter of young people lack basic skills.\n  - Skill deficits reach 94 percent in sub-Saharan Africa and 90 percent in south Asia, but they also hit 70 percent in Middle East and North Africa and 66 percent in Latin America.\n  - While skill gaps are most apparent for the third of global youth not attending secondary school, fully 62 percent of the world’s secondary school students fail to reach basic skills.\n  - Half of the world’s young people live in the 35 countries that do not participate in international testing, resulting in a lack of regular foundational performance information.\n- Implication: It is not enough for all young people to be in school; the low quality of education in most developing economies must be addressed."
    },
    {
      "heading": "The economics of meeting the SDGs",
      "content": "- Primary development goal: endow all children (universal) in all countries (global) with at least basic skills via secondary schooling for all young people that is good enough to equip them with basic skills.\n- International context:\n  - In 2020, more than $161 billion was disbursed under official development assistance.\n- Simulated impact using the growth relationship:\n  - Present value of added world GDP over the remainder of the century from achieving global universal basic skills: $700 trillion, or five times current annual world GDP.\n  - The gain is equivalent to 11 percent of the discounted future GDP over the same horizon.\n  - Impact on developing regions (sub-Saharan Africa, south Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, and Latin America) would be multiples of their current GDP.\n- Caveats:\n  - Improvements would be difficult to achieve and would take time.\n  - Economies need time to assimilate newly skilled workforces."
    },
    {
      "heading": "The new urgency (pandemic impact)",
      "content": "- The pandemic has changed educational outcomes for current cohorts; losses from school closures and reluctance to return will not disappear simply by restoring schools to their January 2020 performance (Hanushek and Woessmann 2020).\n- Learning losses have been disproportionately severe for poor children in both developed and developing economies.\n- Disruptions were greatest in a broad set of developing economies; example cited: school closures up to a record-breaking two years in Uganda.\n- Recovery requires schools to be better than they were at the beginning of 2020."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy implications and recommendations",
      "content": "- Focus: unwavering attention on improving student achievement.\n- Evidence-based policy directions:\n  - Develop effective accountability systems.\n  - Promote choice.\n  - Emphasize teacher quality.\n  - Provide direct rewards for good performance.\n- Data and monitoring:\n  - International development organizations should institute a regular, internationally standardized test in all countries of the global South, with tested content relevant for children who struggle to reach basic levels.\n  - A globally comparative test would give policymakers better information to focus efforts, devise suitable policies, and monitor success.\n\nEric A. Hanushek and Ludger Woessmann, F&D Magazine, June 2022.\n\n---\n\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2022/06/basic-skills-gap-hanushek-woessmann"
    }
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    "Authors: Eric Hanushek, LUDGER WOESSMANN",
    "Published: April 26, 2022",
    "(1) Skill differences account for three-quarters of cross-country variations in long-term growth.",
    "(2) The global skill deficit is immense, as two-thirds or more of the world’s youth do not reach even basic skill levels.",
    "(3) Reaching the goal of global universal basic skills would raise future world GDP by $700 trillion over the remainder of the century.",
    "Long-term growth depends primarily on the skills of the people (Hanushek and Woessmann 2015).",
    "Relevant economic skills are captured by international student achievement tests in math and science (for example, PISA, TIMSS).",
    "Achievement explains three-quarters of the variation in growth rates across countries.",
    "Years of schooling have no bearing on growth after accounting for what has actually been learned.",
    "Evidence presented to support causality:",
    "Definition of basic skills: represented by mastering at least PISA Level 1 skills.",
    "Global shortfall:",
    "Six stylized facts summarizing global deficits:",
    "Implication: It is not enough for all young people to be in school; the low quality of education in most developing economies must be addressed.",
    "Primary development goal: endow all children (universal) in all countries (global) with at least basic skills via secondary schooling for all young people that is good enough to equip them with basic skills.",
    "International context:",
    "Simulated impact using the growth relationship:",
    "Caveats:",
    "The pandemic has changed educational outcomes for current cohorts; losses from school closures and reluctance to return will not disappear simply by restoring schools to their January 2020 performance (Hanushek and Woessmann 2020).",
    "Learning losses have been disproportionately severe for poor children in both developed and developing economies.",
    "Disruptions were greatest in a broad set of developing economies; example cited: school closures up to a record-breaking two years in Uganda.",
    "Recovery requires schools to be better than they were at the beginning of 2020.",
    "Focus: unwavering attention on improving student achievement.",
    "Evidence-based policy directions:",
    "Data and monitoring:"
  ],
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