{ "title": "Turbulence and the Lessons of History", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2022/06/turbulence-and-the-lessons-of-history-patricia-clavin", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2022/06/turbulence-and-the-lessons-of-history-patricia-clavin", "overlayPath": "/en/publications/fandd/issues/2022/06/turbulence-and-the-lessons-of-history-patricia-clavin/index.md", "summary": "Opportunities are born of crisis, but the lines that connect them are far from direct", "sections": [ { "heading": "Overview", "content": "- Author: Patricia Clavin, Professor of Modern History at Oxford University and a Worcester College fellow.\n- Publication: F&D Magazine, June 2022.\n- Central thesis: Opportunities are born of crisis, but the lines that connect them are far from direct; the contemporary challenge is managing turbulence in an increasingly interconnected and multipolar world rather than treating shocks as isolated events." }, { "heading": "Historical parallels and core findings", "content": "- The 21st century’s interconnectedness makes shocks from anywhere capable of becoming systemic.\n- Historical periods discussed:\n - First half of the 20th century: World War I, the Spanish flu, communist revolutions, a Great Depression with rival trade blocs, and World War II.\n - 1920s and 1930s: persistent efforts to promote international norms among liberal democracies; waves of social mobilization; grassroots and nongovernmental activism supporting displaced civilians.\n - Post-1940: planning for a new world order centered around the United Nations; emergence of specialized multilateral organizations.\n - Post-1918 example: rapid development and then bust of overseas markets for the United States with lasting effects on North American wheat prices and US trade policy and diplomacy.\n- Key historical lesson: the absolute centrality of the political economy to the failure or success of international cooperation and global governance." }, { "heading": "Managing future shocks — conceptual shifts", "content": "- Reframe the problem as managing turbulence rather than segregating stability and crisis.\n- Recognize interactions among shocks (examples provided):\n - Disruption to food and fertilizer supplies in Ukraine will have consequences that outlast the war.\n - Population displacement after world wars produced long-lasting socioeconomic challenges (e.g., displaced central and eastern Europeans living in temporary camps for a decade or more).\n- Multipolarity focus: a new power shift is underway; China is no more likely to be the sole dominant power in the 21st century than the United States was in the 20th century.\n- Path dependency of global governance: institutions and their evolution reflect historical trajectories and constraints." }, { "heading": "Role of institutions, regional governance, and diplomacy", "content": "- Post-1945 institutional architecture: World Health Organization, Food and Agriculture Organization, International Monetary Fund, World Bank—born from prior practices of scientific and humanitarian collaboration.\n- Institutional design insight: the multipurpose League of Nations gave way to single-purpose UN institutions, indicating discrete strands of governance (health, food, finance, trade, geopolitics, displaced peoples, climate change), though contemporary shocks demonstrate these strands are interconnected.\n- Regional institutions matter:\n - NATO, the European Union, UN Security Council and General Assembly relations on human security are newly salient.\n - New regional institutions (example cited: Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank) have unclear global implications.\n- Diplomacy must:\n - Secure a peace that respects Ukrainian sovereignty while addressing Ukraine’s—and Russia’s—need for security.\n - Refer to and deploy international law and organizations, while recognizing the need for reform.\n - Avoid working outside international organizations in ways that risk undermining global order (historical parallel: Neville Chamberlain and Munich, 1938)." }, { "heading": "Policy implications and recommendations", "content": "- Prioritize multiagency and state engagement to address interconnected shocks; do not leave management to single institutions (example institutions listed: NATO, IMF).\n- Reengage public interest in international organizations by building on grassroots activism and new aid entrepreneurs who can shape reform language and frameworks.\n- Give equal attention to local-to-global linkages:\n - Support community-based programs with economic and financial support as well as improved health care, drawing on precedents from 1920s epidemic responses.\n- Acknowledge political economy in designing cooperative arrangements to avoid perceptions of unfair settlements that can erode legitimacy (historical example: Paris Peace Treaties after World War I and subsequent protectionism).\n- Recognize that arguments for or against international cooperation are rival attempts to find solutions to common dilemmas; reform should be pursued within institutions where possible to preserve global order." }, { "heading": "Key dates, periods, and numeric references preserved exactly as in the source", "content": "- \"June 2022\"\n- \"21st century\"\n- \"first half of the 20th century\"\n- \"after 1940\"\n- \"early 2000s\"\n- \"more than 20 years\"\n- \"1918\"\n- \"1920s\"\n- \"1930s\"\n- \"1945\"\n- \"the decade or more after these wars ended\"\n- Historical reference year: \"1938\"\n\nSource: Turbulence and the Lessons of History, Patricia Clavin, F&D Magazine, June 2022.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Turbulence and the Lessons of History\n - Turbulence and the Lessons of History (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Turbulence and the Lessons of History (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2022/06/turbulence-and-the-lessons-of-history-patricia-clavin" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/publications/fandd/issues/2022/06/turbulence-and-the-lessons-of-history-patricia-clavin/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/fandd/issues/2022/06/turbulence-and-the-lessons-of-history-patricia-clavin/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/fandd/issues/2022/06/turbulence-and-the-lessons-of-history-patricia-clavin/bundle-manifest.json)", "Authors: Patricia Clavin", "Published: June 2, 2022", "Author: Patricia Clavin, Professor of Modern History at Oxford University and a Worcester College fellow.", "Publication: F&D Magazine, June 2022.", "Central thesis: Opportunities are born of crisis, but the lines that connect them are far from direct; the contemporary challenge is managing turbulence in an increasingly interconnected and multipolar world rather than treating shocks as isolated events.", "The 21st century’s interconnectedness makes shocks from anywhere capable of becoming systemic.", "Historical periods discussed:", "Key historical lesson: the absolute centrality of the political economy to the failure or success of international cooperation and global governance.", "Reframe the problem as managing turbulence rather than segregating stability and crisis.", "Recognize interactions among shocks (examples provided):", "Multipolarity focus: a new power shift is underway; China is no more likely to be the sole dominant power in the 21st century than the United States was in the 20th century.", "Path dependency of global governance: institutions and their evolution reflect historical trajectories and constraints.", "Post-1945 institutional architecture: World Health Organization, Food and Agriculture Organization, International Monetary Fund, World Bank—born from prior practices of scientific and humanitarian collaboration.", "Institutional design insight: the multipurpose League of Nations gave way to single-purpose UN institutions, indicating discrete strands of governance (health, food, finance, trade, geopolitics, displaced peoples, climate change), though contemporary shocks demonstrate these strands are interconnected.", "Regional institutions matter:", "Diplomacy must:", "Prioritize multiagency and state engagement to address interconnected shocks; do not leave management to single institutions (example institutions listed: NATO, IMF).", "Reengage public interest in international organizations by building on grassroots activism and new aid entrepreneurs who can shape reform language and frameworks.", "Give equal attention to local-to-global linkages:", "Acknowledge political economy in designing cooperative arrangements to avoid perceptions of unfair settlements that can erode legitimacy (historical example: Paris Peace Treaties after World War I and subsequent protectionism).", "Recognize that arguments for or against international cooperation are rival attempts to find solutions to common dilemmas; reform should be pursued within institutions where possible to preserve global order.", "\"June 2022\"", "\"21st century\"", "\"first half of the 20th century\"", "\"after 1940\"", "\"early 2000s\"", "\"more than 20 years\"", "\"1918\"", "\"1920s\"", "\"1930s\"", "\"1945\"", "\"the decade or more after these wars ended\"", "Historical reference year: \"1938\"", "**Turbulence and the Lessons of History**" ], "related": [ { "title": "Turbulence and the Lessons of History", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2022/june/clavin.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2022/june/clavin.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2022/june/clavin.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } } ], "alternates": { "markdown": "/en/publications/fandd/issues/2022/06/turbulence-and-the-lessons-of-history-patricia-clavin/index.md", "json": "/en/publications/fandd/issues/2022/06/turbulence-and-the-lessons-of-history-patricia-clavin/index.json", "bundleManifest": "/en/publications/fandd/issues/2022/06/turbulence-and-the-lessons-of-history-patricia-clavin/bundle-manifest.json" }, "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-15T18:00:51.832Z" }